Newman

Yeah I think we might actually torch the first week of December. The blocking diminishes, Pacific is hostile, and the SE ridge kicks up. But I think after a pattern reset we SHOULD be back in business by December 12th and on.

This is such a volatile pattern coming up. I wouldn't take any OP runs at face value until under 144 hours. There's going to be many chances for snow to start December but it's almost a guarantee that we'll strike out on most. This could be a December 2010 type pattern where we're waiting and waiting and then boom the big one shows up in the medium to short range.

I agree that the first time period to watch is the 25-30th. The look is fairly progressive heading into December with the high latitude blocking suppressing everything, but the split flow pattern looks really good. At this time I think our biggest worry heading into December would be a SE or Mid-Atlantic snow storm rather than a storm that cuts. You can see the models the past recent runs have begun to step away from the cutter solutions because, well, basic physics! You can't cut a storm into a strong block as advertised. Verbatim, the last week of November and December as you mentioned could feature an Archambault event with a classic looking -NAO to a neutral/positive NAO. Good times ahead.

Way-out-there GEFS map showing the potential heading into December.

Most areas you mentioned picked up around 10".

Yeah you don't realize how much you need it until you lose it, especially for 8 hours like I did. Although I've lost power for 3 days before so it could be worse!

Look out towards the end of November and early December. Many signals pointing to a quick start to winter!

And power has finally been restored. Was off since 7 this morning. Picked up an inch or so from the back end this morning so going with final tally of 8".

Most people are going to blame the forecasters in this situation because, well, they got it completely wrong! BUT, this was such a volatile system where the mid-levels were razor sharp between snow and sleet. Not to mention the CAD overperformed, which is often the case. AND snow ratios were no where near 8:1 but more like 10-12:1 with the crazy snow growth and frontogenesis. For many of us in the NW burbs it was a matter of being a couple inches off. For those down towards Philly the bust was even bigger. It should be a storm that many of us learn from.

Eh. I don't think Reading picked up 8" but who knows. Probably a measurement in the grass so around 7-7.5" would sound right. I measured 7" here before compaction started. Probably down to 6.5" at this point.

Glad I'm not out there.

Here comes the dry slot and drizzle. Freezing drizzle for those further NW.

Almost completely sleet now.

How much you got so far? I've got right around 6".

Same here moderate snow, heavy at times and right around 5.25-5.5". We may get to 7".

I just noticed the NWS upped Berks and Lehigh counties to 3-6".

At 11:30 my temperature was 31F, now at 2:30 it's 26F.

Wow now back to heavy snow after a quick period of sleet/snow mix.

You can see it pretty nicely on the Correlation Coefficient. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24

Looks like a quick moving "bubble" of warmer air aloft is coming through with sleet.

Yep those oranges mean business on radar. Puking heavy snow. Also, here is a CC radar to track the sleet line: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-24

Still moderate snow. Will probably be heavy once these oranges get here!

Dude that's incredible. I always get pumped with positive busts lol.

Wow the Philly area and surrounding burbs are going to bust high here. Down your way the NWS forecasted <1" I believe.