Newman

Top 3 CIPS analogs off that 12z GFS run: 1. 2015 Juno 2. Blizzard of 2016 3. Blizzard of 1996 (The King)

Yeah Navy CCB's the entirety of EPA

Miller B/C storms like to jump east. It's why I wouldn't mind some NW and amped solutions right now. Also, you can't forget alot of times eastern PA/Western Jersey is where the "shadow" effect occurs in these events. Kinda saw that on the GFS. The coastal forms well east and all the overrunning precip gets choked out and we are in the subsidence zone. Just stuff to watch out for. It's only 4.5 days away

That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0.

March 1958 being thrown around. The famous storm that dropped 50" out here in Berks/Lancaster.... Regardless, these Miller B/C events all follow a common theme. I'm not saying we're getting 50" lol, but if we can clean up the overall h500 I think we're in an ideal spot to catch this one. Long time away still, Sunday it comes in.

Snowing by 12pm Sunday AND STILL GOING BY TUESDAY EVENING Insane long duration, 48+ hours

I'll take this GEFS mean for the meantime. We're 5 days out, this storm comes in at hr120 on the GFS. We'll see if it slows down in evolution at all. A slower solution would favor us. Would allow the backside vort coming down the spine of the western ridge to catch quicker, phase, and boom...

Where you can get the overrunning plus the pivot will jackpot. The VA/DCA area got it on that Euro run. Typically, these like to move north. We will see....

I'm just hoping for 2-3" from this down here in Lanco. Then we hope for the Thursday storm...

Strong block... RIC to DCA pattern? Hopefully not. I think we will score between the 25th and 30th. We'll have two chances

Looks like a +12 high temperature departure today, forecasted high of 47. Great day to get outside. Off topic, but any hikers here? Check out Rickets Glen State Park up in Sullivan County sometime. Went yesterday and they had 5" of snow on the ground and ice everywhere. Very dangerous! We're talking 4 foot wide ledges covered in 2" ice directly next to 80' waterfall cliffs. Scary times, would recommend going in the summer if you're not experienced in winter hiking or are afraid of heights lol. Here's a pic I took of the 96' waterfall they got there. Anyway, looking at the next 10 days, its primarily two words to describe it: Cold and Dry.

Well the snowpack is all gone but just had some nice light snow for about 20 minutes. Nice!

GFS coming in flatter once again for the Christmas Eve system, tries to bring some backside snows down closer to the coast this run

Saw that too, sneaky system. Any snow won't have a hard time accumulating on the snow we already have down. Also, models picking up on a small clipper like piece of energy trying to swing through Monday night

The Atlantic block and 50/50 goes away which is a shame because, if we had it to slow the flow, this might be a great storm threat. Verbatim, the west coast ridge is in a perfect Boise-centered location until it rolls over on us and pushes the trough out. It's still close though. Will be interesting to watch. In the meantime, I need some rest from tracking this past storm.

The RGEM at hr 30 shows heavy sleet for Lanco with this sounding. Razor thin from being all snow

3k NAM crushes Harrisburg. Huge thump in the WAA, fights off any dry slot and sleet being just north enough, and practically is the pivot point when the storm begins to move east.

CAD isn't the problem here nut, it's the mid-level low passes and the surface low. Take a look at the 700mb low that passes over us/to our north. We dry slot and turn to sleet in cases like that. It's inevitable. Plus models have the surface low tucking into freaking NJ now. The strong 1040 HP will do it's dirty work trying to keep the low level cold in place. But the 500mb trying to close off and pull the surface with it is gonna turn this into a Central and Northern PA special. You might be ever-so-slightly in a better place than I am being a bit further west. Might be able to escape the dry slot and sleet a bit longer plus cash in on the backside CCB a bit better. (BTW, I'm in my home location in Berks county, not at Millersville for school currently winter break.)

The fact the 3k NAM just dropped 3-4" QPF across much of South Central PA in the span of 12ish hours is absolutely insane. Obviously, the usual LR NAM overamped bias is in play, but dang.

@tombo82685 Thoughts?

Winter Weather Advisories issued by State College in central PA for much of the southern tier of the state for tomorrow's system. I expect Mt. Holly to do the same within the next few hours.

There's gonna be some dry wedges/dry slots mixed here, especially with that CCB cranking to our west in Central PA