Newman

3k NAM crushes Harrisburg. Huge thump in the WAA, fights off any dry slot and sleet being just north enough, and practically is the pivot point when the storm begins to move east.

I know it's really late in the game for ensembles, but the 18z GEFS are much better than 12z

18z GFS agrees with the NAMs, stops the NW trend. Basically the same as 12z, perhaps a tad better in some areas, a tad worse in others.

I have work Thursday morning, but I guess I'll be pulling an all-nighter anyway to get the most accurate measurements

18z NAM says NW folk don't jump off the cliff yet. Came back SE. One or two more bumps like that at 0z and 6z and Philly is in good shape. A big thing to look for is how quick the low escapes east. It'll drag the warm layer/dry slot with it and you'll limit any time before the CCB pulls through. 12z: 18z: Great improvement. And I know people will bash Kuchera, but it will excel in cases like this. It won't count sleet as snow. See the 12z map and how low the totals are in SE PA? That's because the Kuchera map takes into account sleet. Much less at 18z.

CAD isn't the problem here nut, it's the mid-level low passes and the surface low. Take a look at the 700mb low that passes over us/to our north. We dry slot and turn to sleet in cases like that. It's inevitable. Plus models have the surface low tucking into freaking NJ now. The strong 1040 HP will do it's dirty work trying to keep the low level cold in place. But the 500mb trying to close off and pull the surface with it is gonna turn this into a Central and Northern PA special. You might be ever-so-slightly in a better place than I am being a bit further west. Might be able to escape the dry slot and sleet a bit longer plus cash in on the backside CCB a bit better. (BTW, I'm in my home location in Berks county, not at Millersville for school currently winter break.)

Continues to shift NW with the other models. Let's see what the Euro and CMC do. The problem is I've seen this story before go both ways. This could trend back SE at the last moment, or it could keep shifting NW and more amped. I just don't have a good taste in my mouth with this one. Screams warm nose and dry slot with those mid-level low passes and a tucked surface low into NY Harbor.

All of these 12z models take the mix/sleet all the way up into Berks/LV and a nice dry slot as well. Oh well. Honestly expecting 6-10" now after every single model run the past week giving me 15+". And those 6-10" will mostly come in the initial WAA thump, then sleet and dry slot, then maybe eek out some backside CCB love. It's gonna feel more like a SWFE compared to the initial look of a Miller B/C. Feel for you Philly and Jersey folk, long winter ahead. Lets hope we can turn this around in the next 24 hours. Otherwise, on to the next...

I kid you not, there's a cluster of 6z EPS members inland Jersey and into NYC

The problem really isn't the CAD, the surface high in Canada is still strong. The problem is we have the upper level lows passing well to our north now. Like here on the RGEM. When the 700mb low passes north of you through eastern PA, we're all gonna dry slot or turn to sleet.

Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north.

March 2017 all over again. But seriously, Mt Holly calling for 20-24" of snow up this way which just seems extremely aggressive. There isn't any guidance at 6z showing nearly that much. The warm push is gonna turn much of SE PA to sleet or a dry slot if it holds as depicted. I'm gonna stick with my call I gave much of my family: 10-14" up here. Still 36 more hours until the storm, this can shift back south but I'm not gonna hold my breath

Models have this coming in around 2-5pm Wednesday and leaving by 4-7am Thursday. That's as of now, we'll see how things keep trending

RGEM absolutely blisters the Lehigh Valley lol. TBH, these insane totals are exactly that: insane. Especially considering this is a 12ish hour storm. Getting 2+" of QPF to drop in that time will be a heck of a task

The fact the 3k NAM just dropped 3-4" QPF across much of South Central PA in the span of 12ish hours is absolutely insane. Obviously, the usual LR NAM overamped bias is in play, but dang.

3k NAM, almost all but done at this point. Of note, the 3k NAM kuchera map has a 45" spot in south central PA lol

I'm going to Jim Thorpe Saturday on a hike at Onoko Falls (imo, THE best hike in the Poconos area), at least that's the plans right now lol. Might be trekking through 18+" but that'll be part of the adventure I suppose.

2" total here in Fleetwood. These storms always fascinate me with regards to how much elevation helps. Down the mountain and in Reading, barely any accumulation. As you slowly creep your way north into the higher elevations, more snow appears until you get to my house and my neighbors are all out using their snowblowers haha

The top CIPS analogs for this storm. I always find these interesting to look at regardless if they actually have any real value or not lol.

@tombo82685 Thoughts?

Winter Weather Advisories issued by State College in central PA for much of the southern tier of the state for tomorrow's system. I expect Mt. Holly to do the same within the next few hours.

There's gonna be some dry wedges/dry slots mixed here, especially with that CCB cranking to our west in Central PA

EURO

Agree, especially if we look at the latest 0z NAM suite. Both the 12k and 3k drop a solid couple inches across Berks and the Lehigh Valley.