Newman
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Everything posted by Newman
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I kid you not, there's a cluster of 6z EPS members inland Jersey and into NYC
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The problem really isn't the CAD, the surface high in Canada is still strong. The problem is we have the upper level lows passing well to our north now. Like here on the RGEM. When the 700mb low passes north of you through eastern PA, we're all gonna dry slot or turn to sleet.
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Unless we see these meso models shift the banding back south, I don't see the 18-24" range verifying this far south. Insane forecast by NWS, I still can't get over it. I want it to verify dearly, but I can't get myself to believe it with the 0z and 6z push north.
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March 2017 all over again. But seriously, Mt Holly calling for 20-24" of snow up this way which just seems extremely aggressive. There isn't any guidance at 6z showing nearly that much. The warm push is gonna turn much of SE PA to sleet or a dry slot if it holds as depicted. I'm gonna stick with my call I gave much of my family: 10-14" up here. Still 36 more hours until the storm, this can shift back south but I'm not gonna hold my breath
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Models have this coming in around 2-5pm Wednesday and leaving by 4-7am Thursday. That's as of now, we'll see how things keep trending
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RGEM absolutely blisters the Lehigh Valley lol. TBH, these insane totals are exactly that: insane. Especially considering this is a 12ish hour storm. Getting 2+" of QPF to drop in that time will be a heck of a task
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The fact the 3k NAM just dropped 3-4" QPF across much of South Central PA in the span of 12ish hours is absolutely insane. Obviously, the usual LR NAM overamped bias is in play, but dang.
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3k NAM, almost all but done at this point. Of note, the 3k NAM kuchera map has a 45" spot in south central PA lol
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I'm going to Jim Thorpe Saturday on a hike at Onoko Falls (imo, THE best hike in the Poconos area), at least that's the plans right now lol. Might be trekking through 18+" but that'll be part of the adventure I suppose.
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December 14th Rain / White Rain /Wet Snow obs
Newman replied to ChescoWx's topic in Philadelphia Region
2" total here in Fleetwood. These storms always fascinate me with regards to how much elevation helps. Down the mountain and in Reading, barely any accumulation. As you slowly creep your way north into the higher elevations, more snow appears until you get to my house and my neighbors are all out using their snowblowers haha -
The top CIPS analogs for this storm. I always find these interesting to look at regardless if they actually have any real value or not lol.
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@tombo82685 Thoughts?
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Winter Weather Advisories issued by State College in central PA for much of the southern tier of the state for tomorrow's system. I expect Mt. Holly to do the same within the next few hours.
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There's gonna be some dry wedges/dry slots mixed here, especially with that CCB cranking to our west in Central PA
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EURO
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Agree, especially if we look at the latest 0z NAM suite. Both the 12k and 3k drop a solid couple inches across Berks and the Lehigh Valley.
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GFS, CMC, GEFS all bury DC to SNE
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CMC Kuchera map is bonkers. 38" Jackpot in Northern Jersey lol. Man I shouldn't have left my KU textbooks at school haha,
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0z NAM now with the Monday system as well.
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18z GEFS coming in very nice as well. SE PA jackpot
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I'd actually prefer it stronger under one condition: it doesn't slow down in the process. We need enough wave spacing to allow for a recovery for the mid-week system. So a weaker Monday system would probably mean a faster in-and-out. But in the end, it doesn't matter as long as it doesn't slow down and screw up the storm for Wednesday
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Verbatim BL temps are 33-35. So would need some decent rates for accumulation. Perhaps a C-1" as an appetizer before the big dog Wednesday?
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Euro is incredible
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Dear Lord, Euro Incoming!!!
