Newman

Late in the game so ensembles don't mean too much I know, but GEFS look great. So no worries here

Been very consistent that's for sure:

This GFS run is about to be insane, oh my gosh

Crushed

Don't ask questions, just sign on the dotted line and embrace it

I'm torn right now, things are trending more amped and further north. Is this the classic windshield wiper effect? Or is this gonna keep shifting north until game time? Confluence is now modeled weaker, everything coming in with much cleaner and sharper trough's with better PVA aimed into the area. Right here is a perfect place for the storm to start lol. I've seen enough, I don't want any more SE or NW shifts

Still snowing

The trough is just incredibly sharper, cleaner, and more neutral on the RGEM.

RGEM coming in hot

You can see on the NAM at hours 57 and 60 the precip die off. That's when many here will begin to panic and call bust. But fret not! The coastal transfer is just occurring. You gotta stick those dreadful dry hours out to get the sweet sweet CCB from the ramped-up coastal.

GEFS with a nice jackpot over south-central areas

GEFS a rather significant increase for some areas, especially South-Central PA. 12z on top, 18z on bottom

Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now.

Haven't stayed up for a Euro run yet this winter, figured I'll roll the dice tonight. Btw, just for fun, here was the ICON snowfall:

I don't think that'll phase in, but this piece.... this is the one that matters IMO. Even if we do have a "too south" solution in the end, this piece helps to slingshot the low up the coast. Then we get sloppy seconds with a matured low. But hey, better than nothing and this slipping east. And if the storm isn't too south? Well then that piece helps to rejuvenate the low off the coast and pivot it back to the coast. That piece is everything in my opinion between a 6-10" storm and an 18-24" storm. I'm still young, but over the years I've grown weary of average storms. My mentality is go big or go home. I'm not the biggest fan of snow, but I love tracking MECS and potential HECS events. Especially when you have models print out incredible amounts, it's dangerous. It's like a drug, the last hit might have been great... the next one you want even better. Perhaps why this is such a mentally exhausting hobby... '

If we get this too fast, it misses any chance of phasing with that backside vort. Then it's Juno 2.0. I think slower is better here. Too fast and you risk east slippage. Too late and perhaps you risk too amped. But I'll always take my chances with an amped and tucked closed 500 below me with a fresh arctic cold air mass in place.

I don't think that piece of confluence is all that bad. It forces the low formation a bit further south around the OBX. Then the storm would crawl up to the delmarva and stall as another piece of energy dives in the backside and pulls it back. Would you rather have a low form at the VA Capes/OBX? Or one that forms at the Delmarva? Based on past experience with Juno, I know what I pick...