Clear trend here at 500mb compared to 18z. Look at the sharper trough and better oriented PVA into the region. A.k.a "this should've came even further west".
NAM came back west with the low, still absolutely sucks for EPA despite a sharper 500mb trough and PVA better angled into the region. Improvement I guess? Next...
Me too, I would love to see an entire SE PA jackpot and spread the love to all in this sub. But I have an uneasy feeling about this one still. Maybe it's PTSD from the past, maybe it's a legit concern
FWIW, 21z SREFS are not that impressive across the area (with regards to other guidance), they're favoring northeastern areas like NYC and SNE. KPHL mean of ~6.5". KRDG ~ 8.5". KABE ~ 9.0"
I'm still holding my breath here. I've seen these before, we're still a long way out until the coastal even ramps up, 1.5-2 days away (Monday afternoon/evening)
I'm hoping the CCB doesn't set up so Lancaster gets screwed but Berks is in the jack. I already told my dad to keep those measurements at home true and honest lol
There almost isn't a single model that DOESN'T plaster Berks/Lanco/Lehigh with at least 15". Low end is 12" from the GFS/UKMET, high ends are Euro/Para-GFS/CMC with nearly 2-3 feet
I don't think this will be a March 01 redux, but a repeat of December 2020 possibly. When the heaviest totals were over us for awhile then they shifted all north but we still all got 6-10" in.