Newman

Heard rumors that they might be moving the game to Cleveland? Would be a bummer, though I also can't imagine the logistical nightmare of trying to get a sell out playoff crowd out of a stadium with roads impassable

The RGEM comes in cooler as well, following the NAMs. Again, there was a very slight shift south with the 850mb low, but each mile matters as the rain-snow line battle will be a real one. Below is a sounding from the RGEM for tomorrow evening in eastern Berks county 0z UTC. Between 21z and 3z (so like 4pm-10pm) is when much of the NW burbs will see their best snow growth. After that, rates will drop off. Certainly not extremely "unstable", but the mid-levels do have pretty steep lapse rates and that will aid in dynamics. Between 4pm-7pm the RGEM has a solid 700mb fronto band push through. This is that initial "thump" that many will be relying on.

I do, hence why I'm even in this forum posting about a snowstorm I won't be experiencing lol.

Storms like this make me glad I didn't choose to go the forecasting route

The 850s are held more at bay on the NAM, aided by the mid-level circulation passage coming in a bit further south this go around. Yes just pointing it out.

And the 18z NAM coming in cooler with the thermals

Mount Holly just re-issued the WWA for Berks, Lehigh, Hunterdon as 3-6" now

Winter weather advisory for Berks and Lehigh, 3-5". Honestly surprised NWS went that high, was expecting 2-4

GFS is definitely better than it's 18z run. Canadian better for most than it's 12z run. Overall, things look a lot more juiced up on everything

Yeah the FV3 is warm, it honestly looks pretty reasonable

Probably the best combo of the 12k and 3k nam runs we've had yet, too good haha

The 2nd vort CCB is starting to become more real, it might end up being the main show if we see the trend continue. Like I said those NW would get a few inches on the first thump. Probably 3-4". Then we wait for the next show to drop 3-5" Sunday morning

That's a proper NAM'ing for NYC right there on the 2nd vort CCB

NAM gonna focus on that 2nd shortwave. Verbatim it's cold for most NW of 95 on the initial thump, a general 3-5". Then we rain and snizzle through the night until Sunday morning. A CCB starts to crank and we pound

Agree, we're in that time frame where you might expect a wonky NAM run in a good way

Can see where the Euro paints that deform band Sunday on it's 6 hour snowfall (not to be taken literally, just as where the deform band was geographically). Overall, a slight nod to the GFS with snows through Sunday. A very solid run for those NW, especially Berks and the Lehigh Valley

Verbatim on the GFS, the Pats game at 1 and Giants game at 4:30 would be fun on Sunday

The Canadian has also trended the way of the GFS, that 2nd vort catching up. It's not fully there yet, further north of a close off compared to the GFS. But we'll see if this trend continues into the evening and overnight suites

We'll see if other models start to move towards this more, but the GFS opens another can of worms with the evolution of this storm

GFS just did exactly what I was talking about with that follow up vort, just a little too far east. The CCB gets cranking

^That time for the gif I posted, yes you could argue it's already after the initial thump which it is. But we have that 2nd vort swinging through now on guidance and it would sure be nice for the mid-levels to still be cold enough when that happens to snow an additional inch or two on that passage. That second vort attempts to wrap up and bring in some cold air on the backside, but there's so much energy crashing into the west coast reducing any chance for amplification. It's a New England special, and an interior one at that

12z NAM is a touch warmer unfortunately compared to 6z. Still a nice 6 hour thump for the LHV

I knew this thing would trend north, but honestly not THIS much. Definitely have to temper expectations. I still think it'll move back south a bit, but really only benefitting places like the LHV. I guess we'll see, congrats New England

Euro just went way NW