Newman

If the CMC is even close to right and we get that energy to eject and phase, then holy shit

Best case scenario is something like what we saw with the fantasy GFS run a few days ago: the Baja California energy ejects very efficiently and runs into a brutally deep cold dome and we squeeze out a lot of moisture along the baroclinic zone. The worst case scenario (and the most likely fail mode) is the energy gets held back and or doesn't eject efficiently and it's a congrats Richmond. And also if the HP keeps trending stronger. But until then, I see absolutely no reason to worry about rain in this set up. If the 6z AI GFS happened, then sure you might flip to sleet. We will have to see wholesale changes with the Arctic high to worry about rain

Details to be sorted out later, the good news is it's looking highly likely that someone along the East Coast will get a storm this coming weekend. Models will waffle north and south all week. But tbh, I'm feeling really confident for areas I-80 south. These things almost always come north. As long as we don't see models trend towards holding back that energy in the SW, I think DC -> NYC is looking good

6z AIFS would be a certified banger for Philly. Surface temps hover around 10-14° as you squeeze 1-1.5" of QPF into this cold dome.

1.5" from round 2 in Fleetwood 3.625" on the day 8.2" for the weekend 16.625" on the year, which is ~2 weeks ahead of normal (first week of Feb)

Considering how well the AI models did with the weekend storm systems and in general (their verification scores are much better than their physics based versions), it makes sense to rely on them for the upcoming period. At the synoptic level, it's the best we have. All of that to say, the 18z AIGFS looks great for next weekend. The Euro AIFS was even better at 12z. Long ways to go

That 850mb fronto band really bringing the goods further NW into Berks/Lehigh. Folks already got another inch this round

An additional 2" in Fleetwood this morning. I'm not expecting much more west of 202 the rest of the day

KRDG reported 3.5", Spring Twp around 4"

4.5" final total in Fleetwood, and the 18Z NAM says another 2-4" tomorrow? Meanwhile, people going crazy down here in Florida for a potential slushy inch on grass tomorrow morning!

Up to 3" already in Fleetwood, could hit 4 or more based on radar

About 1.5-1.75" from my folk in Fleetwood

The thing I like better about the post 1/22 timeframe is there's much easier ways to score vs playing the fickle game of hoping a vort rounds the trough at just the right time. With solid blocking developing and a decent Pacific, you shove the PV into Southeast Canada but also roll it on its side so it acts as an area of confluence and locks in deep cold across the northern tier. Essentially, it's a great overrunning signal. The ensembles have actually been enthused for that period.

One of the most insane fantasy runs I've ever seen on the 18z GFS

Overnight models showing a pretty reasonable "fail mode" in the fast flow we're in... 1. All of the PVA escapes east of the low and 2. The trough struggles to turn negative and fully consolidate due to the kicker system. In the end, it just turns into a paltry ULL passage with light snows. Even if a coastal low does pop, it's so far removed from any moisture. That's not to say the current OP runs are horrible, if the "floor" is a light 2-3" event with jacks to 6, that's fine. But some of the bigger solutions will only pan out if we can get this more consolidated.

The top CIPS analog from the 12z GFS is 1996 lol. No I'm not forecasting or even implying this could reach to that level.

Ha, well 2016 was one. I know 2021 had h500 closed off but it wasn't vertically stacked.

EPS last 3 runs trend. Again as is, the 12z Euro still gives much of the Lehigh Valley 4-8" of snow

Even as is interior locations get widespread 4-8". Tighten it up a bit more and it's the GFS

Very close, EPS will be telling

Like the 12z GFS advertised, yes if the energy diving down the ridge can cut off, it'll vertically stack and just crawl along the coast. What helps the GFS is that shortwave energy is super amped and dives meridionally down the ridge, so it amplifies the heights out ahead of it through PVA and T-advection very sharply, and then so much so that the trough cuts off.

Alot is dependent on what that TPV lobe does. The Canadian is vastly different from the GFS and dives that south into the country, the GFS scoots it east. Ideally, we want it to get out of the way like the GFS and just let the energy consolidate/cut off on its own

Yep, quite a few more legit storms on the GEFS. If this trend continues, we'll probably reach an inflection point. Still don't trust the GFS fully, but at least there's something on our side and all models at 12z have been improvements, some significant

Somehow the 12z GFS just became even more amped than 0z. Wow! Should be a great run. Probably brief rain to snow as the bowling ball rolls underneath

Check out the 12z GFS coming in, should be good news here