Newman

Christmas doesn't even look all that brutally cold anymore

Now this would be one hell of a front on the CMC. Even though it's a rain storm, the puddles would freeze up in an instant lol. Of course flash freezes rarely work out, but it's fun to look at

Although rain, this would be one hell of a front on the Canadian. 55 to 16 in 6 hours here LOL

CMC is unfortunately another huge cutter. But I agree, I did get Jan 2000 vibes with it too. Verbatim, it's pretty strung out and disorganized which actually helps out because heights don't rise too much. It also doesn't close off until at or north of our latitude on the GFS. I said yesterday I was chasing the big dog, but I might have to walk back that statement. It doesn't look nearly as ideal as it once did, so right now I'm chasing a white christmas

GFS coming in with lots of changes. I won't speak to what the outcome is gonna be, but i think it'll be more positive for the coast

This is a good start to the 0z suite. Grasping here, but the ICON is drastically improved

Yeah early on it looked like it held serve, but the ridge out west shifted further west so it's amping up too soon.

GFS not blinking, gonna be a hit or at least off the coast this run again

FWIW, the NAM long range at hour 84 looks more like the GFS with the ejection of the PV into SE Canada

It is, I measured it on google maps and it's a ~1,050ish mile difference in the low pressure center

Just incredible changes at the surface downstream due to the changes we saw with the handling of the PV energy at day 3-4

Look at this 24 hour change, incredible

Euro looks just like the GEM at hour 72, nothing like the GFS with it's handling of the PV lobe that acts as our confluence.

You are right, I went back and checked the 6z and there were more cutters than anything else. Good news there at least

There are a couple individual members that cut it to Buffalo, but the mean and lean is certainly SE and off the coast. There's a couple cutters, bombs, and complete whiffs

I know we're over a week out still, but I'm gonna need a good Euro run here in an hour to give me a little more hope. The GFS is wonderful, but it's on it's own. I'm really not looking forward to a model war for the next week if that's the case

The differences between the CMC and GFS are huge even 5 days out. There is no confluence whatsoever on the CMC

-2 in Altoona and a balmy 58 in Philadelphia

Raleigh NC the place to be on that GFS run, back to back jackpots less than 3 days apart

Is it wave spacing, the fast flow, unlikely "perfect" phase, geographic location, or something else that would make you say the ceiling is a SECS?

From Mount Holly This changes as we go to the end of the week. While there are timing and placement differences with the long term guidance, all of the long term models are indicating the potential for a coastal storm to affect the east coast Thursday into Friday. Each have a coastal storm developing to our south, before a disturbance moves in from the west, bringing colder air with it to the area, and strengthening the low as it approaches. This is a week away, so there is plenty of uncertainty, so for now we will stay close to the NBM for the forecast.

I've always been a HECS or bust type of person when the ingredients are all on the table. A sneaky 2-4" event two days before? Definitely welcomed. A big dog being progged days to weeks out? Yep, give me the big thing. I will of course take anything for a White Christmas, but I will be chasing this thing for big one potential