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About TPAwx

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  • Location:
    Tampa, Florida

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  1. It’s windy AF here in Tampa, tho nothing to do with the TD. But awesome anytime you get a stiff daytime breeze here in the summer months.
  2. Euro op stays offshore but brings a sustained strong fetch up to the NE. A few ensembles cut across the FL peninsula but most stay offshore. Mostly good news relative to 0z.
  3. To say the Euro had a different solution overnight on 95L is an understatement. Cat 3 off Carolinas and then landfall in southern NJ as a Cat 2.
  4. Maybe not meeting the technical definition of landfall, but it’s landfalling at Cape Hatteras right now.
  5. Early in the run 12z GFS is slightly east relative to 6z
  7. 1:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 Location: 26.6°N 78.0°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 914 mb Max sustained: 180 mph
  8. Meanwhile, a serene morning here in Tampa Bay. Always reminded that if a system like Dorian approaches TB at a particular direction, my neighborhood is under 30+ feet of water.
  9. Gotta think the GEFS will have at least a few FL landfall tracks. Hard not to see Dorian getting to 160+ overnight given the structure and environment.
  10. Interesting development on the 18z GFS. Was not planning to stay up for the 0z Euro but....
  11. At 12z Wed HWRF is 130-150 nm west of 6z. Lets see what Euro returns within 30 minutes.
  12. Both HWRF and HMON are about 60-75 miles west of 6z thus far in the 12z runs, and less so south. But again not great models for track.
  13. It’s a few tenths of a degree SW relative to 6z, probably not significant and it’s not one of the better models for track.