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TPAwx

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About TPAwx

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  • Location:
    Tampa, Florida

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  1. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yeah it’s odd to see people downplay this WRT impact and damage, given the actual facts/data observed with the storm. The pics/vids/tweets represent a fraction of the actual impact that will become clear over the coming days.
  2. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Needs to be COC, so a few hours at least.
  3. TPAwx

    Michael Banter Thread

    Hyperbole: “errrmahgawd that decaying Cat 1 currently forecast to continue moving east is going to bomb to cat 5 and turn west and destroy everything!. This is awesome!!” Not hyperbole: Obs of high water hundreds of miles from the main area of impact, comments that the surge in some places will be terrible and unprecedented.
  4. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    There will likely be gusts around 170 somewhere, whether there are actual obs is another matter. Stay safe up there.
  5. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    There is high water and road closures this morning all the way down here in Tampa, with a 2-4 foot surge possible. The reach of this thing is outsize, and it’s tough to fathom what it will do to the right of landfall with all of the water being pushed by an intensifying Cat 4.
  6. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Looks to be some deeper convection firing to the south of center.
  7. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Obviously the panhandle doesn’t have the population of a Houston or FL Atlantic coast.. Pensacola is a relatively small city and not sure people will be fleeing en masse from Tally.
  8. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Storm mode come swiftly.
  9. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    GFS has 947mb verbatim landfall Wednesday evening near Panama City Beach.
  10. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    GFS looks to be coming in a bit more intense and slightly east of 18z.
  11. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Any eastward change early does not translate to landfall position changes, at least in this op GFS run.
  12. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Pretty important variable. Here, further down the coast, Tampa had its hottest month on record of any month/year (since 1890). Obviously this dynamic translates to some extent to offshore sea surface temps and available heat potential.
  13. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The intensification and forecasted continuation are troubling for sure, but it’s good that confidence have increased for track guidance, to the extent it reasonably narrows down landfall possibilities. It would seem a late Charley-esque bend is less likely, but folks down to Cedar Key shouldn’t let their guard down yet.
  14. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Was thinking of Charley earlier. Didn’t live in Tampa at the time but worked here part of the month and was evacuated based on the forecast. The bend took folks by surprise down around Punta Gorda. Now with so much more sophistication in forecasting, and social media, there would be less surprise but still would leave limited prep time for those not paying attention, and any of those outlier east EPS members imply a more intense storm to deal with.
  15. TPAwx

    Major Hurricane Michael

    997 mb. 60 mph for the new advisory.
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