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About frd

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  1. @psuhoffman Not sure you came across this or not but today's EPS had a crazy depicted + 510 meter block midway between Iceland and Greenland at hour 144. Bluewave mentioned this on the NY thread, stated may be the strongest, a record for early March. I was not aware the CPC NAO data, as Bluewave stated, has not been updated in a few days but is due to be updated tomorrow, per Don S. There was a significant computer issue. Well, its going to be crazy looking at the forecast tomorrow. I guess the morale of the story here is that it's still early to tell how this block progresses, but we have some crazy stuff to think about and ponder the next few weeks with that block .
  2. You are correct and HM just posted its not really about the details yet.
  3. @showmethesnowWhat do you think of that solution off the record? Refresh my mind, what are the advantages of viewing the control run in terms of model outcomes? Thanks
  4. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Bob, we are going to be reading about crazy stuff in Europe first, then it will be our turn, J/K about a possible Ash Wednesday 1962 type storm, but you never know what might happen.
  5. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    I honestly forgot what a legit NAO block looked like. Its been that long.
  6. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    What a sweet animation by John recently, over the past week and days this is getting better and better in my opinion. The amazing Pac retro is awesome to look at here, I believe HM alluded to this yesterday and has been for days.
  7. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Yeah baby..........loving this Go Ian !!!! Great info
  8. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    I agree with your logic. And on a related note, I would not be surprised for an interval sometime in March, maybe near mid month, for a more negative temp departure, as it seems the PNA goes more neutral , and even positve possibly and before that there appears to be a - EPO loading going on. The EPO is forcasted to go negative. Lastly, a phase 2 MJO in March has the very highest correlation to cold anomalies in the East. ( may extend further West as well, source - JB video )
  9. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Hmm, this is a bit confusing. No one ever said extreme cold, but it seems like he is blowing off any potential during March
  10. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    I respect that :-) This winter has been a challenging one and it is only going to get more challenging from a weather dynamics point of view , total chaos soon
  11. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Seems the moisture may not really be an issue as we have a somewhat split flow developing and the MJO looks to be favorable, plus wow the SOI is still negative.
  12. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    @psuhoffmanI read that models do poorly with retrograding blocks. Have you heard the same ?