frd

I'm not sure what you're really talking about. Originally the front was forecast to pass our area on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday we're going to be sunny, if you read the Mount Holly AFD you'll still see that Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled. The sun will break out Friday morning late. I would appreciate if people pay attention to a poster's entire post. I said things may change , I never said it's certain. fyi nothing in weather is definite

Very true. By Sunday warming begins again. What was forecasted as a nice 4 day period has turned into really just one, Saturday. Might change of course but strong upstream blocking is messing up everything in terms of a quick frontal passage.

Some indications the AO may start to go negative later this month.

Not sure the Euro has the handle on this just yet. The trend seems to be a slower frontal passage due to upstream blocking with higher rainfall totals as a result. Coolest post frontal anomalies may never make it to the coastal areas due to resistance from the WAR. FYI, the WPC seems to be going wetter over a larger area versus what the Euro has here.

Euro agrees, wow !

Certainly doesn't look like we enter October like a dessert. Soil moisture overall would favor a normal temp profile for the first part of the month. However, that would be unusual given the past 5 years. Also taking note that the AO is going towards more neutral, the NAO expected to turn negative, and the PNA after going on a major dive into negative territorry it may flip dramatically back to positive in early October.

Get ready for the inland trackers, coastal huggers and of course our friend the "cutter".

The scale's color scheme seems more dramatic than the actual numbers, but is still warmer nonetheless.

Hmm

Still steamy out despite the wind change. Current dew point here is 70.

Does this include Delaware South of I-95 as well ? Mount Holly alluded to this potential in the recent 10:11 AM short-term AFDupdate, but didn't mention what the 12z CAMs showed.

After October 7 th

Dew point currently 71 at 8:00 AM., just nasty for mid September.

Exactly, looks aweful ! September should be another August. Climo is getting warmer and warmer right before our eyes.

Fits the pattern of the Euro weeklies which shows a robust WAR into early October. You just need the correct timing, but that is an odds thing. Overall, the potential is there.