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About frd

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    Middletown, DE

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  1. 1.25 inches is very good actually compared to what we thought two days ago with the conflicting model data. Very impressive event up this way. Will really help soil moisture and the grass crowns weather the upcoming excessive heat. Currently with the pivot arriving , very heavy rains. Can't wait to hit the surf early next week.
  2. Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action, and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling, but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently.
  3. Never easy at our latitude and inland location. I noted a lack of forecasts by many here on this system, too much uncertainty. . .25 inches is not going to cut it on the Euro . I am not so sure about the Mount Holly's rainfall forecast. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020 Based on a blend of national guidance, the previous forecast, and a blend of the models except the GFS, we`re currently thinking that we`ll see an average of 2 to 3 inches across DelMarVa and eastern Jersey with between 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over eastern PA. The GFS is the most west in its deterministic low pressure center however the GEFS mean is well east of that deterministic run. So I hedged towards an inland system but further east of the GFS and quite a bit slower as well. Either way the heavy rains should pass out of the region late Friday evening as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. But, here is the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2020 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Significant shorter range model differences remain with an Eastern Seaboard coastal low whose potential development is being monitored by NHC. Recent GFS and to a lesser extent GEFS runs have been the most progressive with this low into the Northeast this weekend. Recent UKMET runs have been the most developed. While plausible, the WPC product suite was primarily derived instead from a blend of the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean that offers good continuity for this coastal low and also seems to provide a good forecast starting point and continuity for the rest of the lower 48 days 3-7.
  4. Do you feel the greatest impact and flood threat is to our far NE over Long Island and New England? Looks like dangerous rip tides, high surf, high tidal flooding and poor beach weather to say the least on the NJ and Delaware beaches Friday to Saturday nigh, . Also of note, some very warm SSTs East of VA .
  5. Since BAMM released this two days ago recent data supports extreme heat arriving in our area at the end of next week, some of the height forecasts are portraying a run to the century mark.
  6. Mentioned a couple weeks ago regarding Atlantic SSTs increasing at a decent clip. Check this out, in terms of ocean energy for later in the season.
  7. There was a program on recently, I believe on Nova, and stated there is going to be a tendency for Canes to track further West, closer to the East Coast, and maintain a higher intensity, in the decades ahead based on the warming climate. Take what you want from that.
  8. All in due time. Get your rest now @WxWatcher007
  9. Finally last night got hit with a rather prolonged heavy rain event along with a a STW for my area. Seems the outflow boundaries from the storm complex in Se PA spawned new storms to my NW and then these storms , or rather a large complex, dropped Southward. Very impressive rain and wind event. Even post rainfall the winds were very gusty. Rain gauge at home was at 1.75 inches. At least the grass crowns are saved for the next round of heat and will be nice not to have to water for a while.
  10. I like the idea of 80 degree surf zone temps by late July off Southern NJ and Delaware beaches. Overall a hot month looking at some of the data. Set the path for a cat 3 later in the season.
  11. Hey CAPE , if you can share your thoughts on a good product I really appreciate it . Thinking about applying something like to my front lawn. FYI ., my front lawn has really turned brown, missed all the rain you have received. Lower half has gone dormant. Going to be a tough summer rain wise I think.
  12. Heat at long range so far has been muted in the short term, while areas far to the North bust through 90. SE Canada for example. Some associate this pattern with the cold pool in the Atlantic , looks different than other years recently. As the Atlantic SSTs change I would imagine the sensible weather around here will change also. I know soil moisture is very low. Ground very hard around the property, as some grasses ( fescue ) going dormant already.
  13. I read you can also steak them just like tomato plants, along with pruning . FYI