frd

So far, based on storm totals the Euro's rainfall output is not verifying where as the HRR seems to be doing much better. Heaviest rainfall has been way more West then modeled. Whether that changes after 5 PM into the early evening I am not sure.

Imagine if this was a mid winter SECS :-) Hopefully it just requires fine tunning, from what I read 3 months ago I thought it was good / better than the current model.

Thanks

Do you think the heaviest rain still falls along the I 95 area and East, or do you believe the heaviest rains will fall West of say Baltimore ? When I looked this AM I saw the heaviest modeled rain totals from lower Delaware going North and Northnorthwest. If the HRR is to be believed those areas miss out on the heaviest totals . Thanks

When you look at the current radar over the East with the Upper low over the Midwest , the bow echo line dropping SE into Atlanta and the SE states, and the coastal moving North really looks like a winter event. Pretty cool to look at and run a loop .

Family at Ocean City this weekend, looks like waterspots are even possible later today and tonight . Think the Euro had some 10 meter wind gusts possible as well, up to 55 to 65 mph in places Cape May Court House off the Garden State Parkway I thought I saw the highest 10 meter wind gust forecasted

Impressive

Looks like 3.4 going in reverse while the Eastern regions are LaNina like still. Seems from other forums and mets warming to resume in the West Pac in August. I have read that a weak EL Nino is likely maybe moderate but too early to tell about that still.

I was hoping for 4 to 5 inches of rain , I knew this would trend West .

Dewey Beach, the new Boston

From the morning Mount Holly AFD, which I don't like this specific wording : Coverage of thunderstorms: Thunderstorms look likely across the region, though in Delmarva and far south Jersey, weaker shear and limited synoptic scale lift may limit more organized convection.

Seems for some reason we have not been able to cash in on the high PW vapor present the last few times, maybe today. But, like in winters with back luck when I see the rain falling only then will I believe it . A week and a half ago I was watering my garden during the flood watch ;-)

For visuals and this

First rain yesterday in a while was a relief. Mount Holly states this AM the PW is at a climate high for tomorrow for my region and HM chimmed in on social media thinking robust rainfall potential tomorrow for the Delaware Valley is a good bet. I am closer to this region, versus Philly, but I like the odds tomorrow. Also, seeing more and more evidence that cooler and wetter pattern develops soon and lasts into early August.

Hmmm, time to go long on winter gear, road salt, brine , natural gas and snow shovels !! I agree with your optimism. Been waiting a while for this winter as some key players "seem" to be in our corner this year.