frd

Mine as well get another 26 mile on the ground tornado.

What could have been. Been a crap winter as usual in the low lands.

PARA verifies as much as the Euro Control.

Yes , or No , same outcome here. I can really appreciate your frustration this year.

Snowing here and 32 degrees. Coating on the ground, imagine that !

The reality of your snow fear index, aka the NAM, has worked out rather well this season. Went to the Food Lion yesterday for a few things and when the cashier and I spoke about the impending weather she said its all hype. She said with great confidence , there going to be wrong again, and she was correct. Without computers, without soundings, without met knowledge and using only persistence she beat the forecasters. Thats funny. I was despaired the last three winters because the base state prevented any threats. Now my fear is the ability and ROI on tracking in the long and short range. The majority of this winter, with it's record - NAO, record - AO, etc., modeling did poorly, 3 out of 4 winter storm warnings in my area never achieved the criteria , more or less. Yes, weather forecasting is humbling and challenging. But, this winter has been a emotional rollercoaster of mostly despair and huge let downs.

Yes it did, some areas much more. I can't tell you when the PARA has scored a win. As for the EPS. it has not done well with snow totals in the short range, and in the medium range, heck, even it's precip totals have been off.

Transition to sleet here with some snow mixing in. Starting to whiten the lawn. Looking at the radar, hopefully go to more snow shortly if rates pick up.

The PARA is useless, that goes along with all the snowfall maps beyond 1 minute in the future. PARA always too snowy. Correct .0001 % of the time. As for future chances, we couldn't even score a snow event when the entire country is in the deep freeze.

Enjoy ! I love the snow covered landscape.

Imagine your rates , darker blues, banding, etc., and location is helping too , here is it meh. Many corporations in northern Delaware closed due to the winter storm warning. I doubt we see 4 to 6 inches of snowfall here. But, I will wait before declaring complete failure for 3 out of the 4 storms this season Oh, I shouldn't even use the word storms, implies something major, not.

Another pathetic event , currently sleet and some freezing rain. No snow. All hail the NAM

4 miles NW of me there is a Winter storm warning, still waiting to see whether Mount Holly advances the Winter Storm Watch here to Warning.

The NAM has won this battle a few times this winter. Hard to imagine the NAM over doing the combined forecasting power of the EPS, GEFS and GEPS , but it has in the past. Until it looks better Iam not interested in Thursday. You are correct to be concerned.

Imagine the next Mont Holly AFD might become a little more bullish on snowfall versus sleet and rain. I don't blame them on wanting to get closer to the event. FXUS61 KPHI 151119 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 619 AM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 Precipitation type: If we get precipitation on Wednesday night ahead of the mid level warm air advection, then precip will start as all snow. The elevated warm layer will develop from south to north through the day on Thursday, resulting in a change from snow to wintry mix and eventually to rain for some of our region. The elevated warm layer should erode from west to east Thursday night into Friday, which will mean our precipitation will change once again to a rain/snow mix depending on the temperature through the boundary layer. Part of this will be dependent on which of the surface lows becomes dominant, if it is the eastern low as the ECMWF is depicting, this change to rain/snow could occur earlier than what we are currently forecasting. Wintery impacts: Our snow and ice amount forecasts won`t go out far enough to cover this event until Tuesday afternoon, and the amounts are still very uncertain given the questions of precipitation type mentioned above. That being said, snow to liquid ratios will likely be quite low through this event (combination of periods of mixed precip and marginal temperature profiles even with all snow), so that should temper snow amounts. Ice, of course is the other concern, but the good news here is that for most of the region, the period of freezing rain should be limited before a change over to rain or all snow. However, any amount of ice can have impacts (as we saw yesterday). At this point, I expect some travel/driving impacts for most, if not all of the region.