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This actually goes against what many private mets think this coming April will be like, but the weather will do its own thing. Looking further ahead, some analogs suggest a cooler summer and others a furnace.

The PSU storm version 3.0 goes along with this And this as well. .

In my opinion the stellar correlation to the AO, which has held positive since December 22, 2019 was, and is a great forecast tool. The AO is still heading higher in the short term. Never a chance for any snow despite the earlier modeling. Even low temps that might have broken freezing this weekend are in the mid 30's for my region.

I am very sorry for the loss your family member. I just had to put our dog to sleep two weeks ago. The sadness was so overwhelming. We miss him very much as I know you miss your pal and buddy. The bonds we make and the impact of a dog on a person's life is almost impossible to describe. The benefit to our mental health and the companionship, and devoted unwavering love is a thing to cherish . I cried for hours and was deeply depressed for days. I will always miss my best friend. Those we love do not leave us but walk besides us every day. Invisible and silent but always near. You can feel it at times though. I am sure your dog lived a wonderful life and you can always reflect back that you and your family brought years of happiness to your beloved terrier.

Looking ahead it seems like the growing season might be ahead of schedule. When do you drop your crab grass treatment? I normally look to the forsythia, they say as long as you drop it before they bloom you are good, as crab grass seeds tend to germinate at a specific soil temp which normally follows after the first blooms of the forsythia bush. Wondering whether they bloom early this year.

Scand blocking coming up it seems, not - NAO depiction though.

Northern Delaware missing the somewhat better action in your area, currently a somewhat chilly 45 degrees here.

Cape Cod crush job incoming. Maybe the wind can blow the moss of my trees. So wet, even after the recent dry several days. Meanwhile, the last 30 day AO state and amplitude suggests a warm March. The CPC recently updated the 30 day outlook to mild across wide areas of the country for March. So, for now the focus becomes what of April? Some analogs suggest a cooler April after a mild March. Personally bring me dryness and sun in April and no eternal 15 days in a row of dark depressing cloudy days.

Speculations can be made, and not sure myself the causes here as referenced by Maue beyond lagged effects and warm oceans, but this trend along with the lack of a strong Nino is a bit concerning. This itself is remarkable as well.

Agreed, gaining sun fast and next week DST starts, also get some sun and vit D 3 conversion going on which is proven to increase your resistance to viruses and strengthens your immune system, and a natural anti depressant too! I have given up on snow weeks ago. I still look every few days at the models but expect nothing and so far nothing it has been. On a long term note of interest, these bad winters have happened before and we will bounce back in the next few years.

Hopefully this background state changes as the year progresses. Even HM commented the last time in regards to the HL and the NAM this winter was way back in the Pinatubo era. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ Deep Westerlies, as Simon states, and your Westerly dominant AAM regime mentioned by Matt are keys . Put that on your checklist next December. No changes expected here for at least a month or longer, I might speculate months.

The Atlantic is going to boil this summer. As will your grass , but maybe the extreme heat will kill your moles. Might be an early and a extended beach season this year . The robust Western Atlantic ridge may be so large at times to deflect storms into the Gulf but we are to a degree due for a East Coast threat that effects a large portion of the coastline, such as a Donna track. And yes, it will be a long summer but you never know, the consensus early on is for heat but why not think chaos and maybe a cooler summer is in the cards. Hard to go against extreme heat coming out of this winter but you never know.

Very impressive deep dive on the PNA coming up along with the expected adjustment on the AO index. currently moving back up in the extended after a rather feeble attempt at neutral. The long lasting AO positive trend shows no indication of reversing as does the very strong vortex.

Ugly just ugly !!!!

Check this out. Even a month out the vortex remains resilient and above ERA-Interim climo. And at times very strong as well. Very remarkable given we enter March in less than one week. Wonder the implications if and when we flip to a - NAM state. Also thinking about the implications for hurricane season with those warm Atlantic SSTs and maybe, just maybe, a cooler summer up North and then a lagged solar min and a more firmly established - QBO combine to drive a colder winter next year. Hey, total speculation but as Bob stated and Tom as well, we are due for a flip from the + extremes and Tom is looking for - NAO phases to manifest more so in the next few years. Pretty cool