frd

You did relatively well this winter considering, I basically lost interest after mid February without any type of upstream blocking or negative nao it was very difficult to cash in. I am looking for to a walk on Sunday morning when the temperatures are forecasted to be in the lower 20s , this might be the last time this winter we get to the lower to mid-20s for overnight lows.

Cold Smoke there

Looking much better

Always look forward to your forecast! You verify well. My location forthis event is bordering on your 4 to 8. Bring on the snow

I am suffering a seizure now. Stop the lines stop the lines

The look here is very close to the displaced and elongated PV , PV streamlines shown on Stratobserver. As the PV evolves over time as shown by the streamlines various weather impacts may occur at our lattitude in Feb. Intially it looks like over-running events and then morphs into potential Manitoba Mauler developers off VA. Maybe even a hybrid MillerA/B. All options are on the table IMHO. Of note as well is that the PNA may not go negative as quickly, also looking for a wave breaking event for the possibility for Atlantic blocking for a short window, also worth mentioning is that AO is forecast to dive back down rather sharply and abruptly. This may put into motion some winter element as well in the equation during early Feb. Here are a couple images from yesterdays view of the forecasted streamlines. Also the look at 384 hours in thre last image is insane.

For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern.

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

Seems the entire PV shifts South putting us under battle zone with Frigid air to our North and waves moving along the boundary to our South.

We are due!

RGEM wayyyy NW

No, sorry.

Interesting data here that seems to support the Euro at handling 500 millibars for hours 72 and 96 slightly better ( reduced average error ) than other models.

Compare