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Update is in on the extended Euro. It does show a weakened strat vortex from mid December onward.

Ventrice mentioned this yesterday. I believe there is a proven lag time to impacts here in North America. Buy gas futures !

This is an impressive drop , razor sharp if you will, in the NAO. Have to see whether this holds in the days ahead.

Good thread. Seems Ural high and especially the +EAMT may weaken the vortex. Seems mid December is the tipping point to see if, and how, this goes down. Will it be enough, and will the vortex cooperate is the question. Tonight's Euro extended range will be very interesting, as Simon mentioned.

The call for a - EPO during mid December is gaining some traction on the long range models.

Don't get sucked in. Ha ha. Glad to see you posting. How you find the time is a mystery. I know your busy. We are dealing with some things that normally don't exist. or should I say coexist.

Not every day. 588 jeez

Damn the AO forecast looks good. Hope it happens !

A lot going for early December , especially towards the second week of December. Including a possible PV displacement, PV elongation, and the effect of a Siberian warming and the 7 day lag to NA, especially in the East. The displacement event if it were to occur could have implications for later in the month, in a way echoing Matt's thoughts from the post above.

Interesting to keep track of during mid to late December for any sensible weather implications in January.

Would be awesome if the actual blocking turns out more robust and longer lasting. I would love a December 09 event this way And to make it even better................. to happen near Christmas.

Extreme + PNA on the way it appears. Euro supports it as well. Question is the eventual evolution in early to mid December. Inland snow then a more significant event somewhere in the East.

Yes, that is true. Several mets and pros have mentioned a period in December when the NAO may drop. There is also a huge wave breaking event getting under way as well in the North Atlantic. This may have implications in the NAM domain as well . As mentioned here by Simon:

Interesting change today, with the caveat needing to see consistency in the next week, however, a nice drop forecasted in the AO domain.

Would love to eventually evolve the pattern change to a possible - EPO as HM mentioned recently moving deeper into December.