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Was not aware these are out again. Seems now they are jumping around. December actually looks great and the best to me . I am not sure how much faith to put into these.

I can see warmer later in the month, but not the early part. Plus, we get a favorable MJO phase 8 1 2 progression as well in December.

No No No No he did not post this ......... Yes Yes Yes I like it though :-) :-) Eh....the way things are going, well why not ?? A little DC lovin

The most important take away is that the Nino is Modaki and central based. That is critical. Another plus, the El Nino is not weakening. Most forecasts call for a high-end weak Modaki El Nino. However, keep in mind that there is some uniqueness here with this El Nino. HM alluded to the walker cell and how talked about this last week. I almost think this type of El Nino so far seems to be wanting to favor cold. IMHO As per DT on this :

Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum. This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise, was centered in the NE part of the country. I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up !

Wow, this does look impressive. I would think the outcomes are more El Nino like conditions and a longer lasting El Nino into the Spring and beyond possibly. No wimpy kid here. This combined with seasonal blocking patterns hopefully delivers a big dog eventually.

Records

This Thursday represents the second time this Fall season that the coldest air on the globe is over our areas. Last time temps were in the in the 30's , this time will be in the 20's and single digits in the coldest spots for lows. I wonder if this repeats after a period modification later in the winter season, say Jan or Feb., but this time even colder yet for us. Seems the atmosphere and general pattern want to deliver wet and cold going forward. I think that even though this is an El Nino it is not a typical one at all. HM alluded to this and the walker cell and other factors. Plus cold Ukmet and colder trends with the recent seasonal models. Plus record NH snow cover. The never ending warmth up North and still ice free seas beckon more blocking I think . I feel there is a connection to the areas with a lack of sea ice and above average temps up Northeast of Greenland, because that is exactly the area(s) where the crazy 580 block developed.

Agree.....this fits too the backdrop of many winter forecasts, for example Isotherm's ,where he states the pressure will remain on the PV throughtout the winter in varying degrees. Nothing right now points to a powerful PV in the near or medium range

That be awesome !!!!

If anything pressure continues on the PV - the weeklies might even be underestimating any -NAO and -AO

Looking at the evolution in this animation you have to think we score at least something. And no 80 degrees, yippie !

I like days 11 to 18 :-) Thanks for posting !

This is really impressive and to think this look may linger too , and or re-appear in December after a minor relaxation, or maybe no relaxation. I read HM stating that all systems are a go with this -NAO and a very convoluted Atlantic in time.

Keeping the SPV under control , should continue the background of a -AO in December hopefuly.