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Agreed, my opinion of Weatherbell has gone way down. My opinion is that Maue generated a lot of word of mouth, traffic , revenue and value to Weatherbell . To me he was a huge asset .

So, bascially the ensembles dictated an outcome and this played out how many thought. the skill to the member ensemble suite vs the operational , was only a matter of time right . Question, will the ensembles reverse course or unlikely ?

LOL, you are correct . I admit I am eager to read about the hopefully upcoming MECS alerts.

Never a question according the DT , no way the American models will win this forecast

http://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/ I use this site a lot , and the surf forecasts are generated from over 22 models or more , usually pretty accurate, in this case of course take the forecast with a grain of salt . Not sure what the various models are based off ( GFS, ocean model, etc ) , maybe one the mets might know. Any way, the forecast it has for Wildwood, NJ , Cape May area is something I have never seen on this model in my 20 years of looking at the site. waves over 50 feet , what !!!!! Pretty amazing

Also cool to see , as Ventrice points out , how Sanvu impacts Irma down the road.

DT has a good read about the hurricane. Latest trends support his general outcomes in his article. Seems like a close call but no major impact. https://www.wxrisk.com/aug-31-hurricane-irma-gulf-fl-se-usa-out-to-sea/

Indeed, seems like the trends on the EPS are more Westward. Timing though very hard at this point.

The ECM sat image forecast is a massive hurricane , cat 3 to my eyes, thats really cool looking image . That CF is clearing the Coast it appears on Friday the 8 th. A powerful CF at that /

You are doing well overall in my opinion here. July most likely was the hotest month relative to normals , and the above average precip also a good call.

Also of note is that it appears likely the QBO will be in its favorable blocking phase , the negative East phase. I believe there the question is at what level, severely negative or slighty so Maybe this is a winter where blocking in the Mid Atlantic region over powers the ENSO phase. Maybe neutral ENSO with more frequenet NAO domain blocking. Not sure just some speculaton.

Along with the GEFS the monthly from the Euro is also cool for August per Ryan. Been waiting many, many years to see something like this happen in August. Well, lets see if it verifies.

Interesting

Incredible cold here , 26 degrees and windchill of 8 F. Flurries and snow showers, for March 15 th amazing. My daughter is going to freeze at varsity soccer practice right now. Reflecting back to yesterday for a moment, the freezing rain and 50 mph winds yesterday destroyed my favorite twin side by side Scott pines, so sad today about that .

Yep, all true, and I expect you to keep this thread updated during the summer as the El Nino comes into better focus :-) We can all thank the -EPO for helping us all the last several years. I am eager to follow this thread as the months proceed. I share your thoughts that the NAO and AO domains are ready to shift, and that the changes only deepens in next couple years.