frd

You hit the nail on the head. Many mets were stating they had some concerns over the Nino in Nov being weak during the heart of winter. Some countered that by stating where the main tropical forcing was going to be centered, made that issue not a viable concern, 40 70 benchmark remarked in November about the pathetic MEI and stated that not having a moderate Nino versus weak, ( right now it is very very weak, not even declared yet ) it would be hard to get say MECS in our forum . I know you know that, and most here do as well, but not having a stonger Nino hurts us, and that we do better in moderate Ninos. I know you and I have discussed this over a month ago, and see others are mentionung it now too now about what Tip said from NE Forum , about the extensive warm waters and the gradient theory he has, as to the fast Pac flow. Certainly the MJO in the warmers phases is an issue this year. We are breaking MJO phase and amplitude records for Januarys as Don S mentioned in his forum. Very unusual to the MJO act like this. Seems right now AAM is up +2 and maybe things work out for us soon, 1/27 -1/30 . I agree with Bob we will have oppurtunities and we need to watch the Northern jet as well. I am still optimistic about about Feb. But damn that the MJO.

@JakkelWx HM talking about the lack of a powerful system this week just ended, which was needed and expected to help turn the NAO to negative.

From DT , Eh, DT sounds not too excited , he states everything needs to come together perfectly for the Jan 28 th one as of this time. Also seems the NAO goes positive near the 27 th and 28 th and wave spacing is an issue too. one system after another messes up the PNA WHATS NEXT - JAN 28? WXRISK.COM·SUNDAY, JANUARY 20, 2019 In summary it is far too early to get excited about the big snowstorm showing up in the 12Z midday Sunday European model. The solution is viable in that it does not appear to be absurd but several things have to happen in order for this track to develop exactly as the models showing. The lack of the -NAO / Greenland block in the Teleconnections over North America is a problem and it's one reasons why these last systems came in land and why the one on January 24 will also may take an inland track. It is quite possible that the big system on January 28 may also come inland.

Some thoughts from HM., He seems to think there is a renewed threat for a winter storm when the baroclinic zone reaches the East Coast later this week, ( after the mid-week storm ) . ore Replying to @antmasiello So after this midweek storm, the East Coast will be in threat zone as we move towards Feb? Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 54m54 minutes ago re The baroclinic zone will reach the East Coast by the end of the week, and that's when a renewed threat for a winter storm will happen.

Maybe we need a banter longrange thread. The long range and dicussing the pattern go hand in hand, to me at least. Discussing what is causing things to happen is part of learning and exchanging ideas. Those ideas help generate thoughts about the weather pattern in the long range. I feel as long as you don't complain you are good, because that deserves to be put in banter.

That would be a real bummer, yet I read from one private MET that stated the SST profile around Aussie favored mostly the cold phases this year for us in the East. The opposite has happened so far. Tip brought up the idea of a lack of gradient theory , I guess so much warmer waters out there, not sure that fits the issue at hand though with the MJO. I think he was referring maybe to the fast and powerful Pac Jet. How it was breaking down West Coast ridging.

A few days ago the MJO was decaying in the COD, and or decaying and somewhat moving along, this indicates it stays near 5 and 6 and does not really get in the COD. ( close but not in the COD ) This is likely the reason for the look out West and even the HL. The MJO seems to be the link this year, and it is overriding other factors, or if you dont believe that it is at the least interfering with the deveopment of a favorable look out West and a +PNA, etc. Adomino effect if you will. Seems the SSWE is rinsed out, so wonder if the issue with the MJO, and the favoring of bad phases for us, is a function of SST profiles out there in the far West Pacific, or a lack of a focused center of higher anomalies versus a large area of warmer waters. If you figure this out, you can figure out Feb and March IMHO.

The other thing, is what you bring up here. The orientation and location of the HL blocking has changed as well.

I quest for answers I guess, because at times its frustrating not to know the why behind the causes. But, weather is science and this hobby has its ups and downs like all things. Really thought and to a degree still feel we may get the epic look on one of the weeklies run to actually happen in real time.

What's up with the double posting, thats strange. Never said winter is over, but something is up, and has been up, that is causing the Pac to crap the bed. This is not the first time this winter it has happened. I know about the MJO decaying into the COD, and all that stuff, but we get these reshuffles and then when you think everything is all lined up, things go downhill yet again. I imagine everyone has thier own reasons on the causes. Everyday I read great updates and posts from respected weather pros and experts that indicate things should align better to promote a +PNA -AO and a -NAO but then I look at the EPS hour 360 and see that the Pac does not look good. Maybe more time is needed.

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period. For a Feb look, it is even more a set back. The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone.

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks to the extreme they had on the last update. I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up. There have been issues with the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again. I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing.

I love the looks of it and I like hour 288. There is potential , thats all you really want to see. Good run

I don't think this really is much of an El Nino, and because of that I am concerned by the MJO. But, the complexities of the MJO make forecasting it very challenging, especially this year for some reason. Not even sure right now how the Pac will evolve in Feb. Conflicting signals are present. Seems very hard to get a cooperative Atlantic and Pacific this year. (so far ) Not making a forecast just sharing longrange thoughts. On a brighter note, I did like seeing the cpc ensembles with more concensus for a diving - AO. I agree with you that if the NJO decays we should be looking better.

Yes, thats true. We would be in a prime time to cash in. There was some talk around from the strat guys including Earthlight, aka John Homenuk, that the date near Jan 21 st might be the day where the models sense the influence of the SSWE on the troposphere from downwelling. I mean the weeklies must be anticipating something in the HL from that for the look that they provide. I would watch the next several days for modeling changes. I hope this year provides more research on the effect of SSWE and the Pacific as it relates to the MJO and convection and heat release.