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I know, but just mentioning be careful what you wish for. Already my garden is totally dry and top soil is very hard. It is amazing how quickly we lose ground moisture this time of year. Once-a- week rainfall would be awesome, but 14 days in summer in a row without rainfall is not great, if you have agriculture concerns, or have a garden. etc. Need to get my soaker hoses set up and straw or mulch the garden, it is about time shortly. Less rain has one advantage- less mosquittos - I hate them !

For my area Mount Holly has only about a 40 % chance of storms . A few days ago there was agreement a line would form and move East from I-95 up this way, and head East to the shore. What actually happened was a Dover, DE and further South scenario. I am not sold on a widespread event and think any significant severe is way North. One thing though, surface moisture after the heat and winds and low dews - getting dry. After this next oppurtunity little in the way of rainfall. And the SE is dry and super hot. I have noticed the trend for the dryness spreading West in time as well. Maybe the next wet cycle is June, when exactly , not sure.

The winter version of that statement would be going with climo and saying every winter is going to be average snowfall to below Above normal snow here and Cat 3 's s up the Chessy, well you know. However, if you believe the SW Atlantic boils then the odds increase later this year. Add that too there are some models that take the El Nino forcing and transition to more Nina like that is another thing to keep mind of... And...the MDR is warmer than last year at this point , any system could form and then transition to the very warm SW Atlantic. But, all my life and still waiting for another Donna, Hazel and my fav the fast track 1938 Hurricane. Mind blowing track and damage. Very high death toll too. A traffic weather occurrence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

Keep an eye out for Bay temps in the Chessie, with a look like this Bay temps will be rising fast. Wonder how the crab season will be based on eventual rising temps? ( as in maybe too warm ? ) I know too much rain is not good. I thought I heard from a couple guys that crab for a living it looks decent so far.

My daughter attends the Universtiy of Denver, in here first year towards here Masters Degree. I am jealous, all she sends me are pics of snow and more snow, the blizzard video with 70 mph was surreal. What a winter out there and just NE of Denver are some amazing snow totals. Was really a Denver to Upper Midwest Winter. I believe the snow was to a degree a surpise. I checked her zone forecast yesterday morning and the low was 36 degrees, no mention of snow. ha ha , just crazy times in Denver.

As things relate to East Coast ocean temps - the last few days temps at many locations spiked up and many points are above normal. I would speculate with the upcoming weather pattern, lack of rainfall and other factors that the SE Coast and Mid Atlantic Ocean SSTs near the coast are going to be going up rapidly and average well above normal in the weeks ahead. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/physocean.html?id=8536110 Water Temperature Table of the Central Atlantic Coast (Google Maps-based Web page) Last Updated: Mon May 20, 23:35:12 UTC 2019 Location Recent Temperatures MAY 1-15 MAY 16-31 JUN 1-15 JUN 16-30 JUL 1-15 JUL 16-31 AUG 1-15 AUG 16-31 Bergen Point NY 62.2 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 56 60 65 70 73 74 76 75 Kings Point NY 60.8 (05/20/2019 23:24 UTC) 55 59 63 67 68 71 73 74 Montauk, NY 54.5 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 50 54 59 62 67 70 70 70 The Battery NY 59.7 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 54 60 64 67 70 73 74 73 Willets Point NY 54 59 63 66 70 71 73 73 Sandy Hook NJ 64.0 (05/20/2019 23:24 UTC) 52 58 60 63 67 71 72 72 Atlantic City NJ 55.8 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 54 58 62 64 69 70 72 73 Cape May NJ 64.4 (05/20/2019 23:24 UTC) 56 62 67 69 71 74 74 73 Ship John Shoal NJ 67.3 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 61 68 74 77 81 82 82 79 Tacony-Palmyra Bridge NJ 61 66 74 77 79 82 80 78 Marcus Hook PA 62.4 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 63 66 73 75 79 82 82 80 Newbold PA 65.3 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 61 64 72 75 80 82 81 78 Philadelphia PA 60.6 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 61 65 71 74 78 80 80 78 Brandywine Shoal Light DE 63 67 73 77 81 83 83 80 Delaware City DE 64.2 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 63 67 73 77 81 83 83 80 Lewes DE 63.1 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 58 62 66 69 71 74 76 75 Reedy Point DE 66.7 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 62 66 74 78 80 82 81 80 Annapolis MD 58 63 69 74 76 78 78 77 Baltimore MD 72.5 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 61 67 70 75 77 78 79 79 Chesapeake City MD 69.6 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 64 69 75 79 81 83 83 81 Ocean City MD 71.1 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 53 58 60 65 68 69 71 71 Solomons Island MD 67.8 (05/20/2019 23:18 UTC) 61 66 72 75 79 81 82 84 Tolchester Beach MD 70.9 (05/20/2019 22:54 UTC) 62 67 72 76 79 81 80 79 Washington DC 70.9 (05/20/2019 23:12 UTC) 64 71 74 79 80 83 83 81

Mount Holly update at 330 PM NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A very warm/hot and also humid afternoon in progress with some areas closing in on 90 degrees, however the dew points have dropped a little mainly along the I-95 corridor. An upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward through tonight from the Great Lakes, adjacent Canada and New England. Low pressure will track well to our north, however its cold front crosses our region through early this evening. As the cold front arrives, it may combine with a lee side trough. The convection allowing models (CAMs) generally agree that convection continues to develop, especially around the Philadelphia metro southwestward. In addition, some other convection will continue to develop especially near terrain influences and near the residual lee side trough. As of 19z, only some showers with no lightning being detected as convective development is shallow thus far. Visible satellite imagery does show some taller cumulus near and west of I-95. For now went no higher than scattered convection (chance PoPs), as the overall organization should be lacking. The latest mesoscale analysis shows around 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE and this should increase to around 1500 J/KG by late afternoon. The 0-3KM shear ranges from 30-40 knots with the strongest across the far northern areas. Some strong storms are anticipated with a few potentially going severe. There is some dry air aloft and combined with steeper low-level lapse rates results in better DCAPE and potentially strong surface winds. Locally strong to damaging wind gusts are possible, however this threat looks to be with any robust convective cores as precipitation loading will enhance the downdraft. There is not a lot of forcing, thus convection will be driven by the airmass and the incoming surface front. Once the cold front shifts offshore early this evening, the convection will end with clearing taking place. Cold air advection increases in the wake of the cold front, and this should keep some wind going from the northwest. This will also result in a cooler overnight, especially as the dew points drop into the 40s for much of the region by daybreak. Low temperatures are mainly a MOS/continuity blend.

Pretty crazy sounding there

Dews dropping but storms are popping up to our West . Dewpoint was 67 at 10:00 AM. here, now it is 63 and continues to fall. Humidity 43% Wind Speed SW 16 G 28 mph Barometer 29.79 in (1008.6 mb) Dewpoint 63°F (17°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 89°F (32°C) Last update 20 May 2:51 pm EDT

I believe I read many schools have been cancelled in the high risk areas today out West due to the nature of the forecast, timing of the storms, and the probabilities of extensive severe weather and tornadoes.

You think it is related to the Atlantic Ocean cycle and the tendency in recent years for very warm SSTs near and to the West of the very robust WAR ? ( sometimes the entire basin was bath water, aka the year of all those Atlantic Cat 5 hurrinces, including the record for the longest sustained cat 5 ) We have, I believe, set records at 500 mb at times with this feature the last several years, this year's WAR seems to want to go to that eventually.

Wonder whether the CFS, and its previous forecast of an somewhat normal June temp-wise verifies, after this heat and the next oppurtunity at the end of May ?

Marginal risk today, here but wow to the High Risk in Oklahoma and Texas. Going to be some incredible videos coming from that area. I am sure some of the best storm chasers in the country are there today, as it has been talked about for over a week, due to the high potential for large and long track d tornadoes.

From Mount Holly for today, and I noticed a 90 degree reading possible in Southern Delaware. Looks like severe potential lower but the odds of getting into some thunderstorm activity better than yesterday 000 FXUS61 KPHI 201026 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into Canada will cross our region this afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday which may stall to our south on Sunday. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A quiet start to the morning after a muggy and humid night. Temperatures will once again be on the rise, with most places making it into the mid to upper 80s. Portions of southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland may in fact reach 90. Slightly cooler along the shore and in the higher terrain of the Poconos with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves southeastward across the mid-Atlantic. The severe threat appears to be lower than yesterday, though non- zero. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Instability looks to be lower than yesterday with ML CAPE values forecast to top around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be a little lower as well, with 0-3 km shear forecast to be less than 30 knots, thus a little less supportive of stronger thunderstorm cells. With the timing of the front, storms look to fire a little further southeast than yesterday, likely initiating along the Delaware River Valley by 4 to 5 pm and moving offshore by 9 to 10 pm. There could be some localized flooding concerns in areas that see brief heavy rainfall, but storm motion should prevent as much training as was seen yesterday.

Do you think there is the potential of damaging winds in some of the storms? Mount Holly mentions this in the forecast discussion. I believe they have a 40 % chance of storms. Stated main threat are the possible damaging winds later today. It sure feels soupy out there. Dew point of 66 here presently.