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Met4Cast - UK Weather @Met4CastUK The likelihood of the earliest major sudden stratospheric warning on record is increasing for early November. 67.7% of the GEFS show zonal winds reversing while 86.3% of the ECM ensembles show a reversal. The current earliest reversal on record is November 28th in 1968.

If we do get cross polar flow later in November this might move into Canada and then move SE based on a - AO regime. FLXweather-Dave @FXweather26823 In the U.S, we tend to focus on northern Canada for the annual rebuilding of cold air in the Fall, but Siberia is the true cold air factory, and it's producing a surplus right now. Much colder than normal air has spread all the way to, and beyond, the Mongolia & China border.

I am starting to get interested now. https://x.com/griteater/status/2115136878211223702 griteater @griteater Such a stable looking GFS run with the SSW (shown here at 30mb). Model runs will vacillate, but this one was a biggie with a SSW on Nov 4 still going at Nov 13

Andrej / severe-weather.eu @Recretos · 10m https://x.com/Recretos/status/2115073153533653480 With a lot of talk about the upcoming Polar Vortex disruption and a potentially official SSW (Stratospheric Warming) event, most people cant see what makes this event "unprecedented" as its often called. And for a good reason, as a single map of the #polarvortex can be vague in context. I decided to visualize that context. The official criteria for an SSW event is the reversal (0 or negative value) of the stratospheric winds at the 10mb level along the 60N polar circle line. We are still on the edge if we will reach a reversal with this event, but there are forecast runs that suggest its likely. Link to those live forecasts is in the comments Most of the SSW events occur in January and February. I decided to look at every first SSW of each season (some seasons had two) and when it occurred. As you can see, a reversal in the current event would break the record for the earliest SSW on date by at least 3 weeks! This is really a strong outlier, and having an SSW this early in the season is what makes this event unprecedented in itself, perhaps more so than any temperature or pressure anomaly in the stratosphere. Its likely not a coincidence we get this with a very strong Super El Niño ongoing in the Pacific. So overall, this is truly a very interesting season for anyone that is into monitoring the weather and seasonal development.

BAM Weather @bam_weather A #polarvortex split at this point is likely not if but when. This will have significant implications to the 2nd half of NOV and likely introduce much colder risks to the outlook. We will have a full detailed breakdown out to BAM clients today with our updated 3-4 week outlook. Excellent plots @Recretos thank you.

Yes, that is what I find most interesting are the possible implications for Jan 15 th to late Feb. ie. blocking - AO, etc.

Interesting

Seems we might have a + NAO October, I believe thats a good thing.

Works for weather consulting firm. Weeklies are interesting.

WPC has shifted most of the rainfall off the coast even in areas to our Southeast and South.

Ryan Kane @ryankanerWX https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2111481037033296266/photo/1 The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December. For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st. #EcWx #MdWx

Of course my grid says I go to mostly sunny, hmm? We shall see. Time is ticking. oday A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

After the cool down later this week warmth returns over a rather large area of North America.

1.06"

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2108603993190478158