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Everything posted by frd

  1. From Don S courtesy 33andrain Posted 1 hour ago Basin-wide neutral-warm ENSO conditions persist. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.60°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.60°C for the week centered around February 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Basin-wide, neutral-warm/very weak El Niño conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in northern Mid-Atlantic cities including New York and Philadelphia during February. Conditions can be somewhat more favorable during the first half of March.   Such ENSO conditions will likely persist into at least the first half of March with some possible fluctuations to levels consistent with weak El Niño events. The warm SSTAs will likely remain basin-wide.   The SOI was -15.51 today. That is the 13th consecutive day during which the SOI was -10.00 or below. The last time the SOI was at or below -10.00 for at least 13 consecutive days was February 13-March 3, 2016 when the SOI was at -10.00 or below for 20 consecutive days.   Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.840. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is +0.039. Should the AO average -0.646 for the remainder of February, it would finish with a meteorological winter average +0.001. Therefore, given the latest ensemble forecast, the AO will very likely finish with a positive average for winter 2018-19.   On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.165 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly lower than the February 21-adjusted figure of 2.097. The MJO is now poised to head into Phase 1 as February concludes. Afterward, the MJO will advance toward and into Phase 2.   The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States.   A deepening storm will track across the Great Lakes region and then southern Canada over the next two days. As it does so, it will bring moderate to potentially heavy rainfall to parts of the East later tonight and tomorrow. In its wake, winds will likely gust past 50 mph both tomorrow night and Monday. Some areas could experience gusts in excess of 60 mph.   Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month.   Afterward, pronounced warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January.   Finally, looking back at the major oceanic indices for winter 2018-19, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly is all but certain to fall into a neutral-warm/weak El Niño range of 0.01°C to +0.70°C (December-February average), the ENSO Region 1+2 will have finished with a warm anomaly making this a basin-wide event. The December-January PDO figures were negative. Since 1950, a single winter saw reasonably similar ENSO conditions paired with a negative PDO for December and January: winter 1979-80. This time around, the PDO was not as negative as it was back in 1979-80, or it is possible that the snow deficit across much of the East would have extended even farther north into New England, including Vermont and Maine.   All said, the large-scale drivers of the pattern proved to be quite hostile for the development of a snowy meteorological winter for the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The December SOI+ tendency also proved to be the "barking dog" that warned of the collapse of the El Niño that had been in place going into 2019. For the past six weeks, neutral-warm ENSO conditions have prevailed and on a basin-wide, not central Pacific-centered basis.
  2. frd

    February Discobs 2019

    I know what you mean. West winds tomorrow and Monday would be better fo me. I think an East or NE winds puts more stress on the pines that were damaged last March for me. We have been lucky. No ice storms this winter and twice in the last 3 months a high wind advisory was issued by Mount Holly, but the winds never ramped up, at least here in Northern Delaware. This event looks more likely.
  3. We will see. This winter has only featured 3 storm tracks , close to the coast huggers, ie rain, surpressed tracks, and cutters. Still looking for the elusive Miller A BM storm.
  4. Is that not a consequence of the changes in the EPO but also the lack of a +PNA ? I guess we could also use a little bit of a -NAO blip. These changes are par for the course this year.
  5. o for 3, with the cup half full and the indices the way they look, plus pattern repitition, I say one of those will work for us , but not farther up North, beyond say Trenton, NJ, of course speculation, let's see what happens.
  6. A time to reflect. That was a colder climate, yet less BIG snows ! Makes you wonder and think, good info psu!
  7. frd

    February Discobs 2019

    Have avoided iceing on the Scott Pines next to my home now I worry about limb damage due to the gusts and a small concern for uprooting due to the saturation of the ground. Looks like Monday mid morning is prime time when the mixing occurs , of course late Sunday is not fun either, not sure what to do with the trashcan cans yet. Monday is pickup day, luckily last week was recycle. For me here there is a big difference between 50 mph and 60. Some folks have trees that are more prone to high NE winds others have concerns with Westerly winds. All the nature of the tree and the previous damage done.
  8. When my daughters friend comes over form NYC and bring us bagels oh my ..... I jump for joy, I really do, I act like a fool !! They do shame to every bagel place around here that I know of. Watched a video once about all the work it takes to make a really great bagel. The process is prerry methodical and requies a lot of hard work. I am glad I am not following a gluten-free diet.
  9. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/record-breaking-jet-stream-accelerates-air-travel-el-nino-polar-vortex/
  10. Long island has had an interesting time period for most of this decade so far. Even though when you look back at during DJF and even March, the temps were above normal, it stilled snowed. Also, extreme winter warmth during several seasons followed by huge snowstorms on Long Island. Seems since the last Super Nino things are a bit out of whack, "luck " if you will. The general observation on many events, is when Boston is doing well, portions of Long Island will do well. By the way, did you see Long Island reported the fastest ever jet streak over head. My details my be wrong but it permitted a jet, Vigin Airlines traveling East to go over 800 mph. It set a record for the fastest jet recorded in the US. Again, need to check, but is was a noteworthy event.
  11. Accuracy 100 % ( disclaimer : unless your blind )
  12. This winter was also set apart by the fact we lucked are way into events in this area, for most I mean, I know many were not so lucky. Never had a favorable period that lasted longer than what , a week? The relentless Pac jet all winter to the benefit of the Rockies, New Mexico, Las Vegas, the Midwest. Not what you see in a normal Nino. And Bob's commnet about the PDO is part of the issue, as are several regions and sources in the PAC , NH and SH. I don't think it is one thing but several.
  13. The same issues all winter, What looked good is not so good due to the Pac jet. What was a temp + PNA is now lost. Models build it , but it gets blasted away and never truly forms. The high pressure in the Pac not only interfers with the PNA, but also causes the WAR to build. I think the High is related to the warmer water East of Aussie . Not sure what to expect for the summer, but ocean models increase the SSTs of the Atlantic all summer long leading to the peak hurricane season. Granted there is the effect from whatever the former Nino does or does not do, however , it could be an active season. and just for the heck although not as important is the AO
  14. Ha ha , damn those are expensive doggies ...... what about sushi and chateaubriand, or at the least a custom omelette in the morning before hiking through the snow drifts I am hungry now !
  15. Sun angle in March.......enough .
  16. Hold the calls, what, what ????? Ice in the day time ???? In March ??? Sun angle.................no way, this must be fake news ...... Maybe this coming March yet again...
  17. To balance things out some, bluewave posted this a few hours ago, and it is a thought provoking observation. Seems this has indeed been an issue all winter long. The absence of any +PNA . The screaming and powerful Pac jet tears down any attempt at it. I almost wonder if maybe it takes away the favorable window for early March. To flow really needs to slow. Thinking about what HM posted too, I wonder if although the MJO is in phase 1 and then proceeds to phase 2 if we do not get a look that is typical with that type of composite. Some fear the +PNA I myslef not sure what to think this winter. Posted from bluewave starting here : <<<<<< Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge models were showing a few days ago. New run Old run >>>>>>
  18. A lot will change. Some interesting model outcomes will be arriving as we head into the last week of Feb. and this
  19. Mentioned previousy about the typhoon
  20. Saturday might need to be watched. Models with various solutions but active. Wonder when they will have a ah ha moment.
  21. From HM, hmm, more lag and different evolutions than common composites. Well now that is interesting. I read a couple weeks ago there is always a lag before effects are to be felt, so HM does this mean the lag is longer still , because of what is happening this year?
  22. LOL, that would be unacceptable for Northern DE. Some chatter I hear though online is, despite the analogs, some think a rather deep storm that effects portions of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast is on the table.
  23. You could almost envision a Miller A in this scheme. Looking at the flow and such. One facet of interest is whether we get that ellusive -NAO blip. Not sure we need it, not sure whether it is a plus or a minus if it does manifest itself. Certainly the wave breaking and the North Atlantic is active argue we might. An upper Midwest cyclone and the bomb next week racing to the NE after we get those high winds on Monday. Plus the warmth screaming Northward form Scandinavia. I don't see a +PNA spike, so there is that. But maybe it wil be on the way up in later forecasts. Not sure either the eventual path of Wutip. But, certainly seems we have coupled ocean and atmosphere now with the continued -SOI and more Modaki -ish look. An evolving situation. Shorter wavelenghts argue for a possible explosive impact somewhere on the East Coast. But, the way this winter has gone no one is going to sound the alarms just yet.
  24. Almost appears that besides the -EPO dive, there is some help to from the PV in its orientation ( early March ) due to this event ( see below ) that may sharpen up the trough and aid in a direct discharge of arctic air.
  25. Unicorns are not what they are cracked up to be . I have seen some rather disgraceful and naughty unicorns over the years. For example this ,