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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. To some the weekend has started early. Many folks I know are off tomorrow.
  2. You are correct, there was a rather dramatic decrease in areal QPF in the latest WPC discussion and forecast. Not often do you see such a reduction close to real time from them. What was consistent for over 8 cycles, 4 days, has shifted the heaviest rainfall well South of us , coinciding with the higher severe risk. I am still expecting a decent rainfall event but not epic.
  3. Not nearly as bad up here above the canal, but that was a wicked cells/line from 2:45 AM to about 3:16 AM. We were in a warned area at that time from Mount Holly. Almost like a mini derecho. Continuous heavy rain, blinding sheets and constant high wind and then gusts, maybe up to 55 to 60 . The only missing element were winds higher to say 70 or more. Thought there would be many downed tree but got very, very lucky. Only broken limbs.
  4. frd

    April Medium-Long range

    Well, when Yellow Stone goes it will forecast 7, 788, 789, 657 inches of snow. ( give or take 100, 000 inches ) No model is perfect LOL
  5. frd

    April Discobs 2019

    Wow, I wish I were in Denver, winds to 60 mph , 5 t0 10 inches of snow !
  6. Yoda, what are your feelings for the Delaware area with storms later today. Thanks. I do see a hazard mention up for the upper Bay to my West.
  7. frd

    April Medium-Long range

    Appears the wet returns next week near this time, sahifting East in time. Might get a remarkable cold day in there too, mixed into an otherwise normal temp distribution.
  8. frd

    April Discobs 2019

    @C.A.P.E.Why is the chickweed doing so well this year, I noticed that as well. Another new observations after 20 years here in Middletown, DE is the onion grass is really spreading into a lot of lawns. I have never seen as much as this year.
  9. frd

    April Discobs 2019

    Agreed, very dry, and dusty here. Went to do some weeding and the ground is a brick. Grass slow to grow, which is fine with me, but the dryness makes it difficult to work in the flower beds. Also, I read for those who use Dimensions and other pre and even post emergents that for the best results you need .50 inches of rain. My forecast here is not too encouraging for rainfall, it figures it drys up when you really like at least some moisture. Once the SOI flipped seems the rainfall went poof.
  10. frd

    April Banter 2019

    Snow in the dessert.
  11. frd

    April Medium-Long range

    The model that cried wolf.
  12. The guys across the pond are laughing at this future flagship American model. I am sure we could do a lot better if this had real government support and dollars, along with a high priority to create a top performing model able to surpass the Euro over time.
  13. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    26 degreees here. Even colder than yesterday morning.
  14. Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing. In this day and age, and the way things are going globally, I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.
  15. Certainly no indications of sudden summer, which is nice, maybe eventually a nice period of real spring weather for once.
  16. Better yet, snow boots or surf board ? Might take until 2020 for the FV3 to go operational as the flagship model. What a waste of time that model - should develop a tool that blocks models not just posters.
  17. We both know there are many that get very worried when the fall is dry. But, alas that is not a bad thing, just like so many misconceptions out there from sunlight in March and snow accumulating , to SSWE and blizzards are coming, to early season snowfalls are a curse to winter snowfall, ( hold on I have to think about that one a little more )
  18. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    Winds are wicked here. Gusts to 46 mph Still thankful the leaves are not out yet. Trash can flying around - had to bungie it . Simply nasty out there.
  19. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    Super wet here as well. Mold on many surfaces, much worse than last year. Ground super saturated and soggy. Farming might be delayed if we remain cold and wet.
  20. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    I see this on Mount Holly Update too : With the heaviest of the rain being over, will go ahead and cancel the Flood Watch. Any lingering flooding will subside, but localized street flooding may redevelop with the passage of additional showers. Cannot rule out some convectively induced 40 to 45 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Highs today will range from the 30s in the far northern zones, and otherwise in the 40s to low 50s. &&
  21. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    Well, stay dry mappy, hope things improve soon. Seems the numbers of storms that drop high amounts of rain are on the rise. Last year was actually a good year for me in the garden, I preferred that dry period kept tomato disease away, but once the rains came combined with the very high dew points everything went downhill fast. By early Sept I already cleared my garden out. Gardening requires a love and a passion similiar to the weather weenines when we have a snowless winter. If I dont plant a garden my wife will get very mad at me, so I say, " yes dear, of course, I am planting a garden this year" , ha ha !! ( I don't say the ha ha part though )
  22. frd

    March Discobs 2019

    Wow, incredible ! Are there farms near you mappy ? Here in my area we have many corn fields and it is truly a mess with flooding and it will take a while to improve , if and when, we ever get any drier weather. Plus the sod farms hit very hard. Everything pushed back, plus the garden centers, well some of them will not even stock flowers of any type yet because next week we go below freezing in the AM hours again.
  23. The fine line we live on here. But true, honestly impressive for late March in a crap winter. Keeping the buds in check and the grass from growing. All good if you have to care for your landscape. A gradual spring is fine in my eyes.
  24. Too funny, granted it's far from certain, but that would be a fitting ending to a fitting beginning. And, the Euro did not get the memo form DT stating winter is over, make that never started, or was ii cancelled. Hard to keep track.
  25. I know the final outcome is more than just the NAO and AO but flow, and confluence, etc., but I almost can see this happening. Regardless though, will not be doing any gardening yet. Its cold out there.
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