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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. Interesting it seems that when I use location in Maryland, you guys up there have been cloudier. However June on pace to go above climo cloudy this way looking at my chart.
  2. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Interesting Day 1 to 3 from the WPC Zooming in on our area, seems like .50 inch, maybe .75. Not that much when you compare the wording form some of the local NWS offices. I know so far the forecast for most from the WPC from 4 days ago has not really worked out that great so far. Localized impacts are evident by the comments in this forum, and a general tough forecast for sure in nailing down everything from rainfall totals to severe weather impacts with this system.
  3. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Actually better luck last week here , 48 hours of FFW has equaled about .30 here. But, the watch was a good idea, areas in Newark, DE had flash flooding and in Dover as well, very localized though. What is interesting is the morning gray theme going back to April and most of May. If you are a morning person and enjoy the first rays of sun to charge your get up and go, this weather sucks. Impact on garden not sure, but might be concerned when the tomatoes start to get to the ripening stage. Last August after the super high dews fungus set in and also grass fungus too causing the worse grass loss here in 20 years. Hey, I love your fire pit !! Nice job !
  4. Without question the ability to predict the -NAO accurately in advance is not possible. No one can I believe at this time claim to be able to. If a person states he or she can without being open and sharing how and what tool they use I just file under BS. Many pros have in the past stated using various secret formulas, solar, tripole, temps in a box over the ocean, the cold pool, cycles, ice melt, analogs etc. , etc., but to this day I have never seen a person be able to forecast the NAO more than 3 to 7 days in advance.
  5. Thanks, and yes that all makes sense. Higher temps at night, looking at the East Coast possibly. Irrigation makes sense too over the past 100 years. As you know, the article mentioned this is only summer, and the other seasons are very different. ( when comparing ) seems the oceans are at play here too , the Atlantic warming and at times the +PDO, when looking at the Fall and the winter comparisons As for the rain and crazy flow this spring speculation on the low solar min as some NASA folks have looked at it and feel there may be a relationship in jet activity and weather flow from the coming solar min. Glancing a couple days ago at your chart of the NW cold pool SSTs and looking back in time I felt there was a relationship with the cold pool and the solar min . Not scientific at all just a quick glance. The recent record was pretty obvious on that chart. And, I believe we are not at the min yet. 2020 I think ?
  6. frd

    June Mid-Long Range

    @showmethesnow never saw this forecast using dew points. If that forecast came true I be surprised, but maybe it is related to the El Nino and blocking over Eastern Canada, because to get lower dews ( more normal vs like last summer ) here in the summer ( with the warm SW Atlantic ) I would think we need a cooler background state and a somewhat NW flow more so than average.
  7. You often read about the role of soil moisture and seasonal temps, more so in the fall and in the spring. I believe DT talks about this aspect a lot. I believe though it is many times used but may not really be a sound forecast tool. Either the area of excessive rainfall is rather small , or the anomaly is not that great and because of that it can easily be reversed by the high sun angle, longer days and high temps of late spring and early summer. Here though, in your post, it really shows this time it can not be so easily overlooked. The map is pretty impressive, not only in regards to record soil moisture, but also the vast area covered. of interest is this :
  8. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    This is really a remarkable record and a very interesting post by @bluewave <<<< From bluewave: No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.
  9. That is a remarkable new run for sure. I know a couple weather pros that mention the cold pool as a signal for a -NAO next winter. That would be great if it were to happen, but I am not so sure. Also, would not the theory of peaks and valleys simply create an outcome more likely of a +NAO. And, then we keep hearing about melting sea ice and warm season blocking. Maybe the current climate argues against a -NAO in the heart of winter. More research is needed. The only thing certain now is the unlikely odds of a long extreme heat wave around these parts, any time soon.
  10. @bluewave this SST configuration is also supporting the -NAO. is that true ? Seems according to Ventrice that the NAO may be trending down yet again. nothing extreme. But the general - NAO pattern is still there. Also, how does this cold pool dissapate or does it linger into the Fall ?
  11. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    And here we have the lastest 6:30 AM Update form Mount Holly. I bolded the interesting parts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 am update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs this morning based on the latest radar trends with the decaying precipitation to our west. Looks like we will see a lull this morning before the next round of storms occurs this afternoon/evening. The 06z model suite is showing a fairly similar convective evolution to the 00z models, with the NAM Nest and HRRR indicating about the southern two-thirds of the area will see numerous strong to severe storms this afternoon. There are mixed signals regarding convective mode now, with some potential for quasi-discrete storms mixed with more organized line segments/clusters. This morning`s soundings may shed some light on this potential (via analysis of shear and midlevel lapse rates), but suspect that hail potential is relatively modest given antecedent convection modifying the midlevel thermodynamic characteristics (i.e., warming and moistening). Notably, the 00z WRF simulations are much farther north with the convection this afternoon/tonight, and this is plausible since the models were generally too far south with the precipitation/frontal placement on Sunday. Should this trend continue, may need to expand the flash flood watch northward.
  12. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Looks like we are placed in slight risk for today. One thing is the PWATs are very high. Think flooding risks are elevated, versus the chances for severe. Mount Holly mentioned in the lastest update how busy they were in Southern NJ last evening with warnings. There were some quick moving West to East storms that missed me by a few miles but did get some rain. Little instense cells with damaging winds. " Previous discussion... This was not the night I was expecting. After the mesoscale convective system (MCS) moved through the region last evening (albeit relatively weak owing to poor midlevel lapse rates from antecedent clouds/precipitation), convection began to develop in northern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Then it re-initiated again a couple hours later. The storms had fairly similar representation on radar: cores of 50+-dBZ echo to about 20 kft that were demonstrably capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. This made for a busy night, with several warnings issued and quite a few reports of 50+ mph gusts, especially in the Atlantic City and Tuckerton areas. "
  13. frd

    June Mid-Long Range

    Ah..... the El Nino ..... passing the Spring barrier and looking for more accurate long-term Nino forecasts for the Fall. Still way to early , but nonetheless the Euro implies it does last in some fashion through 2019. .
  14. frd

    June Mid-Long Range

    I imagine you can use this data/trend/forecast and make the case for several various outcomes. One might be a cooler summer, no extreme heat, another could be a dry and warm late summer. Another could be normal rainfall near the coast and our area and dry in the far Western zones. Just computer modeling and interesting to look at
  15. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Super muggy out and Flood Watches posted over a vast area. Check out this guideance on upcoming rainfall...... Seems our general forum is clearly targeted.
  16. Your thinking that line out in Western PA. keeps together and drops South and East as the evening progresses ? Then I believe the general idea is it stalls, and depending where it stalls you then get that flood threat tomorrow late day and evening. As mentioned by Mount Holly. The system later in the week is progged to be a strong one, the last in the series. Saturday might be a great beach day. Then I see showers introduced into the forecasts again for Sunday. Not a long break in rainfall if indeed that is true.
  17. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Mount Holly agrees, and highlights this time frame in the NWS discussion for tomorrow evening. The main threat tomorrow however, looks like it will be a heavy rain and flooding threat. Along and south of the front, there could be several risk factors, including very high precipitable water values (above 2 inches) and a very deep warm cloud layer. There is potential, especially Monday evening, for training storms, since the mid and upper level flow will be almost parallel to the front. Held off on issuing a flash flood watch at this time given the uncertainty with where the front will be, and thus where the threat area will be. If the front stalls near ILG, then the main threat area will be over northern Delmarva and far southern NJ (Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May).
  18. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    May and June ......................................... the new Jan and Feb ................... LOL Damn
  19. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Things change at the end of the month. I can see warmer, but not extreme heat, yet.
  20. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    You might take interest in this post, even though it is geared towards the NYC forum. To me it is very interesting as the lack of heat so far this season is rare as bluewave pointed out in his post. true is has been more pronounced further North and West but still rather impressive that we can enjoy more typical Spring days and have had low dew point and cool periods in a sea of warmth this decade. Of note see 2003 and 2014 both cool June months that were part of winters that were cold and snowy I believe. So it can happen but not very often. from @bluewave Only the 6th time in the last 30 years that LGA hasn’t reached 90 degrees by June 15th. Warm season notable cool stats have been few and far between during the 2010’s. So it’s bit of a rarity when we see muted high temperatures like this. Just the 2nd occurrence this decade. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 2014-06-15 87 0 - 2003-06-15 87 0 3 2019-06-15 89 2 - 2006-06-15 89 0 - 1998-06-15 89 0 - 1990-06-15 89 0
  21. frd

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Feel we get more active when we typically do, in August. With the way the pattern and the SAL looks anything of interest would need to form close by. ( as you mentioned previously )
  22. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    rest of June form the JAMA Weeklies
  23. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    56 degrees here. Breezy, feels like early October . Leaves on the ground from last night's storm. not a typical looking or feeling mid June morning
  24. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    Wow - that storm packed a punch, power flickered twice, branches down , driving rain, estimate wind gusts maybe to 35 to 40 mph. I did not see or hear any hail. I was near the Southern edge of the 50 DBZ radar returns, looking North , I would think Newark, DE. got hit harder , also up there the line was wider.
  25. frd

    June Discobs 2019

    The WAR getting pushed East and South in the coming 7 day period. Next week looks active for waves to effect us with more rainfall. Looking for a good beach day, but hard to choose. Tomorrow will get blinded by flying sand particles. Sunday looks nice but the wave action not so good, seems like a SW wind, was looking for offshore. And not liking the tide cycle , tide going out on the afternoon. Tuesday has potential bebind the wave from Monday , maybe a close WNW or I will take even WSW wind. Magic Seaweed has a few single stars from 9 AM to 3 PM. ) Have to keep a close watch. https://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/ Look at all that rain again.
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