frd
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Everything posted by frd
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That area near you is getting stronger.
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The cell in Southwest Delaware has elongated and has grown larger. The area is moving North Northwest.
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Interesting cell in SW De. Moving North at 15 mph. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 526 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 DEC001-005-052200- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-260705T2200Z/ Sussex DE-Kent DE- 526 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SUSSEX AND SOUTHWESTERN KENT COUNTIES... At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Andrewsville, or 14 miles northwest of Georgetown, moving north at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Milford, Harrington, Bridgeville, Andrewsville, Greenwood, Houston, and Farmington. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3874 7547 3873 7570 3898 7573 3896 7545 TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 176DEG 13KT 3881 7560 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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I am sure @CAPE will agree with you. WPC and Mount Holly both too bullish on rainfall.
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WPC Days 1 to 3. I would rejoice for this.
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Of course, anything that can go wrong, will go wrong. Flood watch ?
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There is a flood watch posted for a wide region. Even a historic heat wave with high dew points does not result in a decent rainfall at the end, pretty pathetic.
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True, was in a severe thunderstorm warning and the storm split and weakened and missed me
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Mount Holly not very excited about rainfall today, and even tonight based on my forecast area. Independence Day Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 105. West wind around 10 mph. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Late morning update probs increased slightly Independence Day A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 104. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers between 2am and 3am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
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Honestly that could be a decent snowfall map, as the areas further East and SE get screwed.
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https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Pretty cool to look at, as those storms are moving quick, of note a few cumulus forming on the extreme SW outflow area, wonder if Philly could be in play later.
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Lastest visible
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extreme https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/2073150197807329431 World Climate Service @WorldClimateSvc These extreme deterministic solutions are eye-catching. For reference, the ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023). As of today's 12Z runs, the following percentage of members exceed this: WeatherNext2 23% AIFS-ENS 12% IFS-ENS 12% GEFS 19%
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693 FXUS61 KPHI 031900 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has increased in potential flash flooding impacts across portions of the area on Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, the forecast remains in track. Concern has grown this afternoon that a threat for flash flooding could evolve Sunday into Monday, given a slow moving or stationary frontal boundary draped across the area, and tall, skinny CAPE profiles with deep moisture. In fact, model guidance is indicating PWATs potentially exceeding 2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year and near the daily observed maximum. Given these factors, rainfall rates in storms could exceed 1 to 2 inches per hour. As of now, the WPC has placed a Slight Risk (2 of 4) for the I-95 corridor and points west both Sunday and Monday, with a Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for the remainder of the area. The front is expected to finally clear the area Tuesday, with high pressure at least briefly building back into the region. However, daily chances for isolated, primarily diurnally driven convection, could continue through the middle of next week.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC003-040300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0448.260703T1925Z-260704T0300Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE $$
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Ryan Maue @RyanWeather · 18h Watching with some concern about the "mother of all heat domes" across the Western U.S. in 10-12 days ... triggered by Super Typhoon Bavi. This would be unprecedented ridge strength at 6045 meters (500 mb height) Nobody has seen this before Ryan Maue @RyanWeather · 3h "Mega Typhoon Bavi" Super Typhoon Bavi has an opportunity in the coming 4-5 days to set the "world record" for the most intense tropical cyclone observed, since Tip in 1979. ECMWF HRES (00z) at 872 mb --> upper echelon of Earth's maximum potential intensity.
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Extreme Heat Warning until July 4, 08:00 PM EDT Current conditions at Wilmington Airport (KILG) Lat: 39.67°NLon: 75.61°WElev: 72ft. A Few Clouds 102°F 39°C Humidity 40% Wind Speed NW 10 G 17 mph Barometer 29.99 in (1015.4 mb) Dewpoint 73°F (23°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 114°F (46°C) Last update 3 Jul 1:51 pm EDT
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Pretty sad that areas in lower Delaware which are so dry miss out on the heaviest rainfall potential according to this WPC forecast map.
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https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2073032905203253524 @ryankanerWX RRFS says we break through the capping & storms break out, especially across southern PA & northern MD. HRRR says we stay capped. Good test for the RRFS which will be the new main mesoscale model beginning on the last day of August (replacing the NAM). #MdWx
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https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2073064609636880472 @TylerSebreezy Here's the latest NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities for the next 2 weeks. Definitely showing some high numbers over the next few days as the "heat dome" pattern supplies ample heat, moisture and instability.
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Some clouds showing up and temps still rising Current conditions at Wilmington Airport (KILG) Lat: 39.67°NLon: 75.61°WElev: 72ft. Fair 99°F 37°C Humidity 46% Wind Speed N 5 mph Barometer 30.03 in (1016.6 mb) Dewpoint 75°F (24°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 112°F (44°C) Last update 3 Jul 11:51 am EDT
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Ok, I had enough of this. 97 at 11 AM Current conditions at Wilmington Airport (KILG) Lat: 39.67°NLon: 75.61°WElev: 72ft. Fair 97°F 36°C Humidity 49% Wind Speed NA Barometer 30.02 in (1016.5 mb) Dewpoint 75°F (24°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 109°F (43°C) Last update 3 Jul 10:51 am EDT
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NWS Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly · 1h 103° has tied the highest temp ever recorded at WFO Mount Holly, going back to 1993. The previous highest temp at our office was 103° back on July 7, 2010.
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Mount Holly has increased the rainfall probabilities for Saturday eve/night. SPC has highlighted much of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. As indicated by the PoP forecast above, coverage of storms is anticipated to be relatively low on Friday, mainly isolated to scattered in nature at best. Coverage and organization of storms should be a bit greater on Saturday though. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any thunderstorm development. On Sunday, the severe weather threat may begin to become confined mainly to Delmarva where destabilization is greatest ahead of an approaching cold front. With that being said, the entire area could see showers and a few storms. SPC has highlighted this area with a day 4 15% severe risk.
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Yep, still going up. ( but dew point dropping ) Current conditions at Wilmington Airport (KILG) Lat: 39.67°NLon: 75.61°WElev: 72ft. Fair 103°F 39°C Humidity 35% Wind Speed SW 10 mph Barometer 30.01 in (1015.9 mb) Dewpoint 70°F (21°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 112°F (44°C) Last update 2 Jul 2:51 pm EDT
