frd

Interesting

Looks wintery

You think us in the low lands can still score a significant snowfall or will this be mostly higher terrain event.

Could trend North. What our thoughts on that ? Also connected NAO and WAR gone . Also looks like cross polar flow. Hope not cold and dry. Baroclinic zone might help us possibly. Damn I just want snow.

Appears regardless of meeting the criteria for an official SSWE ( u wind reversal ) just the fact that the PV continues under pressure and will likely remain weak is the main takeaway according to Tomer and Dr Lee.

You think the lowlands have a chance with this one ? Seems we are battling another cutter or suppression. A fine balancing act.

That storm, and the date Jan 17th, fits perfectly with Tomer's - NAO post.

HM

Colder air will move in. As many have stated here, the period of interest is from the 15 th to the 20 th, or possibly to near the 23 rd.

Calm down Ryan

My area is 15 to 30 inches. Hopefully a few moderate events and one MECS gets me to 30 inches. Thanks for the update.

Nice visual - here comes the cold, the animation loop stops on Tuesday Jan 17 th . Looks 6 to 8 degrees above normal at that time.

I read Judah's post and was like what ?? Most reliable professional mets are calling for a weak PV.

Billions of isobars. Like a dark hole.

For illustrative purposes only, but that insane HL blocking regime going across Northern Canada would most likely result ( if correctly modeled) a snow pattern that would run West to East at a fairly lower lattitude. Something like this possibly.

Bluewave had mentioned in the past that the SER/WAR is effecting colder airmasses moving East and tends to cause issues with certain types of NAO blocks where the NAO hooks up with the SER. So many ways to lose and too few to win off of these days.

I really need to move to Seattle for my full of snow and arctic cold.

When the PNA was neutral the entire North America continent was warm, not we have cold building in Canada but a - PNA.

Where was the Holiday period snow storms. WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.

What do you think about Feb ? Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver. Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino.

Agreed, we knew it was going to happen, but in the last 24 to 72 hours the arctic cold trended even further West. Seems as if wave breaking and the Greenland block pushed the arctic air further WSW in Canada. I imagine if things were different upstream, and if the PAC profile was more favorable the colder airmass would have come further East, versus further West.

Sadly, I admit I am bummed to see winter hit out West first with such a fury. The - AO and the - NAO have only muted the warmth here. I am interested to see whether Tomer's stats about the peak of a - NAO and its relationship afterward on average to Mid Atlantic snowstorms. He stated 3 to 5 days after the - NAO peak is when to watch for a possible threat. That would be near the 18 th to the 22nd. Meanwhile he also posted this about the failed early Jan SSWE. Jim chimes in with how active it is going to be in the States over the next 10 to 15 days. Next Weds looks like a high wind threat here followed by a second cutter, and then a third system near hour 240 on the high resolution ECM. which I am not sure how that will play out.

I believe this happened several years back, what was a direct Arctic air mass modeled to drop SE from central Canada into the East ended up becoming a hybrid Blue Northern responsible for the devastating Texas power grid collapse. I hope your first potential scenario does not occur.