frd

Early next week has decent potential, as discuseed by Mount Holly this morning. Model guidance next week suggest that a strong shortwave will round the base of thee upper-low persisting over eastern Canada, possibly phasing with it and resulting in a more dynamic cold front passing through early next week. That will certainly deserve monitoring for thunderstorms, followed by high pressure bringing a cooler and drier airmass around the middle of the week.

Nice rain here with some wind, but nothing crazy. Best action up North near Se PA.

Lots of cloud cover here.

Any swells from Danny arriving or too far away ? We need some wave action at the beaches.

The odor has increased around the Middletown area and the visibility has decreased.

So what chemical reaction is causing this wildfire smoke to smell more like burning plastic and chemicals versus a typical wood burning ? There are some conspiracy theories on the web about this currently.

Thanks, FYI poor air quality extends West to Des Moines, Iowa and South to Georgia, rather expansive area. Daes Moines, Iowa

With a - QBO, El Nino and low sea ice backdrop it should yield a weaker than normal PV and colder temps in the East. How cold when it matters is unknown at this time.

No indication fires burning will improve anytime soon.

Wow smoke just as bad as it was three weeks ago. Sun just a dim sphere.

Very bad right now . Luckily crate Myrtle did not bloom yet.

Appears the rainfall oppurtunities continue the next two weeks, along with warming temps.

Yes, that is true. I estimate between 5 to 6 inches in my immediate area. These last two events of over 2 inches each time are unusual for this area for mid to late June. I decided to postpone lawn fertilization and good thing because it would have washed away. On a side note, as for the garden, experimenting this year with using straw in in the raised garden bed and near by surface level garden. I am trying to prevent soil splash up on the tomatoes leaves since I have tomoto blight living in the soil and also control soil eronsion. The straw prevents weeds and may even hinder the Cicada killers from making nets on the garden.

Flash Flood warning here , second crazy rainfall event in two weeks. lash Flood Warning DEC003-NJC007-015-033-PAC045-091-101-240030- /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0008.230623T2019Z-230624T0030Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 419 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northwestern Camden County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... South Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other drainage and low lying areas. * Some locations that may experience flash flooding include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Gloucester City, Chester, West Deptford, Pennsville, Bellmawr, Yeadon, Woodbury, and Carneys Point.

SOI index at - 26.03 today. Wow !

This Modiki El Nino, if it does develop, may not act the same as others have done in the past. Using JB's analogs from the 50's and 60's is not logical anymore. Things are much different from 09-10 as well.

Prevailing winds mostly NW, N, and NE. Many days with red flag warnings. Along with Canadian forest fire smoke. This might be related to late season changes to the PV. Significant negative AO and NAO at times plus we have had +PNA as well. I will take it. Feels great.

The morning discussion from Mount Holly indicates that some of the parameters for severe weather are getting a little more robust for Friday. Also the WPC has increased rainfall totals in the northern Mid-Atlantic early next week. This comes in a backdrop of another dive in the Arctic oscillation and the NAO.

Just like the Euro snowfall forecast during winter, and the triple XXX Control Model snowfal forecast. All those teenagers getting hot and bothered looking at 30 inch snowfall in the next 360 hours . Does mommy know they are looking at those hot pink colors.

Yep until today I believe it had not rained significantly for at least 4 weeks possibly

Thanks. Was not expecting that much when I left for work this morning.

Not sure yet how much rainfall here but all I can say is based on the road conditions and flooding it must be quite a bit, it's been non-stop extremely heavy rain for the last 2 hours.

And we are much, much wetter. Excellent!!