frd

It is sad. A hobby directly tied to AGW, and this hobby's ROI has been declining in recent years if you are a snow lover. Hopefully, we score something before the never ending humidty and heat move in.

Going to get a seizure

I wonder how the temperatures compare to the March 2018 blocking episode. HM had commented that the progression of the blocking this March compared to 2018 is very similar the only difference is the air temperatures in the source regions of North America are not as cold,however, maybe that has changed in the last couple days.

What is the Ralph mode is that mean suppression?

I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the football from Lucy

If we wind up with something similar to what happened in the southern hemisphere winter the PV should not be able to recover quickly.

Interesting high amplitude MJO phase 7 and 8. Haven't seen that in a long time.

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect.

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers, inland runners or simply cutters. The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac. Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.

That is significant coming from you. Persistence rules, including the semi permanent WAR/SE ridge. One chance mid-month, but even that may not happen.

WAR overpowers the the block. Shorter wavelengths don't help either, but they should. When persistence has featured warmth why think it's going to change. You still need help from the Pac, one positive feature nowadays is not enough for snow.

HL NAM doesn't look good in the long range, plus the effects of the SSWE is still very much uncertain. Might take up to 25 days to deliver a SSWE snowfall event and even if we get a West based NAO block it does not gaurantee snowy outcomes at our lattitude. Persistance needs to be broken and so far the normal crummy caveats apply.

Is it the base state or the bass ? ? ?

Modoki Nino may not deliver if the Pac basin SST profile doesn't set up correctly. I imagine it all depends on the anomalies and location. The grass here is still green and some bulbs have already sprouted through the soil. The 70 degrees next week will really start the thoughts of Spring.

No, the drum is not busted, the tom tom drums are beating to a continuation of the warmer results in the East. Not sure why you want to bring up the 80's and 90's. It is clearly evident the West Pac has changed and the MJO hyper warm phase is in place, not to mention other factors including the NW Atlantic warm pool.

Simple, the base state. Unstoppable the last three years and getting stronger. Any questions please direct to psu.

Pretty clear its over and has been since even before the late December arctic invasion. I have given into the psu snow rational posts and it has enlightened me, as I feel relaxed seeing this winter just go away. Only issue is that we may see a lot more of these winters in the years ahead.

Excellent !

Incredible multi post read, you might to get a coffee

Pretty loop, makes me feel like its summer, not winter.

YES PLEASE

What about Feb. ? Maybe don't ask. '

Ocean temps in the upper 40 s off NJ. , way above normal in certain locations. If Feb or March doesn't offer a period of deep cold SSTs will remain above normal and primed for an early beach season. If I can't ski I mine as well surf.

Yep, it's the base state. Some here deny it.

If you build it they will come