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Insane !!!!!!

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1874224450843161052 Some hope from Tomer.

Block is so powerful the weather systems are reversing. Someone posted a couple days ago about vorts near the Baja moving SW, versus East. Crazy models, crazy forecasts. All the ingredients are still there to sort out over the next few days.

Yep, Euro doing very well.

Interesting height fields and representation East of Maine, wondering how the block intereacts and how it evolves. Very important . I believe it was several years ago, maybe more, when our area was forecasted to have an extreme arctic airmass move in from Cenreal Canada, but over the course of six days the Greenland block moved so far West and South the coldest readings were well west into the northern Plains and northern Texas. It was a huge numerical model bust .

Isn't this a step back though?

FYI From https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627 Basically you want to go with the Euro ensemble because : "European Ensemble here with the 500mb pattern, as it continues to have the highest verification scores for the Northern Hemisphere at this range."

We in the game !!!! Welcome back

Great thread on X by Ryan and always pretty images https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1873140721076867134 Seems like 3 arctic shots are in the cards. The gift that keeps giving.

Crazy snow loop by Tomer https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873154546278776971

Inland runner, we need to break the curse here. The past 6 winters have fetaured a combination of coastal scrappers, inland runners and cutters, resulting in crumbs for the lowlands. Well, with a minor exception, or two. Time to move on in the New Year .

What a drastic change. Several ongoing elements such as the SSWE , - NAM state, favorable MJO, and Changes in the PDO. I have heard some mets talking about the cold transitioning to the West by late Jan. Weeklies show different outcome. Ah...the love of weather!

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873079254445178916 Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5 Good news is that the new afternoon European Ensembles still showing everything you want them to show for a mid-range forecast. Also showing a pretty darn decent nor’easter signature around the 9th. Devil’s always in the details though. Still looks like some very exciting times ahead to me That’s it for the 12z runs! More updates later with the 0z cycle!

Appears the Jan 8th - Jan 10 th system in the Southern Plains , then in the northern Gulf then cruising across Fla. on the Euro OP. Lets see the EPS next GEFS as @CAPE posted above looks a million times better.

Or a Manitoba Mauler

With this look have to think hard about snow chances, seems to be a massive push of arctic cold way South, and with it any hopes for snow .

Too cold not good

1-19-85 1-9-77 1-12-2016 12-23-09

Totally agree. MJO even looks decent, along with a weaker PV and expanding snow cover over NA to provide less moderation at temps, all happening at a time of still low solar output.

Looking at North America, and even NW of Alaska there is no shortage of disturbances moving SE to feed into the massive cold pool over the East.

OMG all of these index forecasts keep looking better every day, crazy !!!

I am getting a boat and heading East, way East. This representation is meh for the low lands all along the East Coast. And, yes I know Thinking this trends better over time. Should be a cycle of storms from offshore trending to more typical SECS, analogs will be telling as well.

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1872828840109867239 Checking on the AIFS 18z ... unloads everything on the Eastern U.S. Still 10-12 days away, but unless/until something changes with all of the models, we're looking at a severe cold snap in Jan 8-11 windows.

Snow into Florida, ensures snow in our region.

Of interest https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1872804772027285756 A note of caution...the analog patterns centered on the 9th are not the most snow heavy in the world for DC. Of the 10 listed, only four had above 5" of snow in January. 1981 - 4.2" 2001 - 2.7" 2007 - 1.3" 2002 - 4.5" 1980 - 8.6" 1985 - 10.0" 1977 - 10.3" 2017 - 1.4" 2018 - 1.2" 2010 - 7.4" So the "it's cold but the storms just don't line up for DC" scenario is of course, on the table. But still, it's hard not to be excited for the pattern ahead. None of the analog years had NO snow, and I'm doubtful we get through the first 2/3 of January without getting SOMETHING to stick on the ground. Just not sure if that means a blizzard, or more of a less memorable but still disruptive snow. Time will tell...(8/)