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An improvement with this morning's run. Maybe I can take advantage of the warmer waters in the C and D canal , ha ! A C&D Canal snow streamer. I am very desperate!

WAR on the move and the Atlantic ocean SSTs still rather warm. I could say that HM thinks any PV strengthening is temporary, and that we will get a reload latter, but after this fiasco I am going to chill out and wait for better days. When psu and the Euro gives me the green light then I will Woof. LOL

New climo worries no doubt. The warm pool is killing us and has been for years. Add to that the lack of a 50/50 and ideal ridge placement out West and we fail. On paper the pattern looks great, but when you look deeper the little things are preventing us from scoring. The little cause cause huge implications. We just finished the first 15 days of December with a record - AO and ideal block North of Alaska, but we fail again. I imagine in the future I will not to get too excited when the indicies look awesome because it means very little at out lattitude. I admit I was wrong, I was very confident we would score at least a WSW critieria storm. Later this month faces the same issues of now. We might exit December with very little snow, such sadness.

Yes, he posted a composite of KU storms. Thats a little unfair, especially when very few KU happen in the East during when you have a Nina.

Eric Webb is maintaining this is a nothing burger for the East. From Eric: < This just flat out isn't a good setup for a big coastal snowstorm in the NE US & hasn't looked like one for several days, despite all the snow output from the GFS & GEFS. Sure, you could get some snow out of it on the backend because of how strong/deep the arctic air mass is, but this isn't a good look for a big storm for the 95 corridor. -NAO & big OH Valley trough is there, but no 50-50 low anywhere in sight and the ridge in the western US has been too far west for at least the 4 days of model runs (even on the GEFS) >> Interior & Great Lakes very very heavily favored. I highly doubt that changes enough to matter at all here. > .

Like Eric, he could still be wrong. But, that means the WPC is wrong and the Euro. So, make your own assumptions. I would love the GFS be correct.

Would be a holiday gift if the GFS doesn't fold to the Euro like usually does.

Hearing that the ICON is trending better in Alaska presently.

From Tomer Burg @burgwx Something that may help out with predictability to a limited extent is the subtle s/w trough is forecast to move directly over the Utqiagvik (Barrow), AK radiosonde site - and that site has been taking 6-hourly soundings as of recent days, so we should get a decent sampling of the s/w and its surrounding environment as it traverses the region tomorrow night. Given the scarcity of in-situ obs in that region, I'd be curious to see if those obs help out in any notable way starting with tomorrow night's 0z runs Utqiagvik (Barrow) located here in the image below

Bluewave had mentioned this as a possible reason for recent inland runners and coastal huggers.

Time to watch Christmas movies. You're cautious approach to forecasting winter events certainly seems the way to go recently , especially the last few years. Things certainly do seem different nowadays. I certainly would have bet money on the fact that we had a huge block North of Alaska and a negative Arctic oscillation under four which would almost guarantee a significant snow event here. I read a comment by a met who stated the particular orientation of this block, north south, potentially increases the likelihood that it connects to a Southeast ridge. I actually mentioned this earlier today. We have that North Atlantic warm pool east of Maine. Maybe that is a factor as well.

Appears that the GEFS is moving to support the Op. Looking good so far.

I am not happy in Northern Delaware, too much sleet, but I will gladly take it.

Model scoring and verification has decreased since early December. So uncertainty in this pattern is higher than normal.

Do you feel the GFS suppresses coastal low pressure incorrectly as a bias? Earlier in the month it had this storm further out in the Atlantic only to correct West. Also I read that the warm pool in the NW Atlantic may be playing a role by enticing the block to connect to this area by the way of a ridge and hence cause the coastal to be more of a inland runner or coastal hugger. This warm pool has been a persistent feature and was even focused on during the summer as part of a study on marine heat waves where certain ocean SST anomalies are significantly above normal. So we have anomalous - AO but also anomalously warm sea surface temps in the NW Atlantic. I imagine possibly competing forces for our area. Maybe this feature becomes less of a concern next month.

Couple interesting - AO records broken for the first half of December. Posted this evening from Don Sutherland: The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.216 today. December 1-15 has experienced the strongest AO block on record for the first half of December. The AO averaged a preliminary -2.908 (old record: -2.138, 1985) with 8 days at or below -3.000 (old record: 6 days, 1966).

Drifting snow with arctic cold AFTER the storm would bring back memories of old time winters.

I like

Hour 189 WOW

Major cyclone going to happen this run. Really digging

EPS also likes the idea of the system on the 26 th. GFS and EPS both like that time period.

This is from a lack of phasing, imagine the possibilities if things work out timing-wise.

Another one for the low lands, or at least it appears that way currently. I recall a Nina snow event in the early 2000's and it was brutal after the snow. These twin snowstorms could cause significant disruptions in travel if they occur. Whatever falls will be around for a while, no doubt very cold with dangerous wind chills.

I remember that well. Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing. Second to that was the Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it. March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ? Calls from Accu weather, Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts. Hopefully this time we score.

1 2 punch