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I can see this happening ............................................. and I am not high

Still to early to tell about the very end of the month, but this post by Griteater makes a good point about opposing forces, at least at the end of the month. Posted 1 hour ago A few thoughts on the pattern ahead... The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14). As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east. The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern. In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern. I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

Maybe we can tap into a small portion of this deep arctic air late month, when the Pac turns more favorable. https://www.ventusky.com/?p=62;105;2&l=temperature-2m

The more snow cover that gets wipes away up North the worse for us as we head deeper into Jan. Maybe something out of the ordinary will occur that leads to a wintery March. I don't have high hopes for that, but we will see.

I have adjusted my expectations down to zero for this year, if I get some snowfall I will be happy. Year after year I can see the difficulty in getting snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Also, looking around it is just not here any longer. Ski resorts suffering in the NE, record warmth in many locations in the US , across the pond it is very warm. Frustrating to say the least. I love tracking snow potential, but the ROI and heart break at times makes me grumpy, so I have learned to temper things and enjoy whatever the weather may bring.

BAMWX seems surprised it was going to get warm. Hey should I go with " base state " or what about AI or maybe Goblin mode.

Even if this happens it would be too late and highly unpredictable as to the target zone.

Interesting outcomes should an event unfold.

The MJO is connected to other weather teleconnections, The MJO phase 8 cold and snow, by itself is not a a guaranteed correlation in the East , especially outside of New England according to @burgwx. This was an interesting read, as I already knew the MJO is just one of many players, but this post below by Tomer takes that point home. FROM Tomer Burg @burgwx < there’s no strong nor even close to a guaranteed correlation between MJO phase 8 & cold/snow pattern in the East. Besides the strongest correlation being in New England with a lower correlation elsewhere, the MJO isn’t the sole driver of global weather patterns & in this case there’s too much working against the establishment of a colder pattern, including the lack of sufficient cold across southern Canada — the source region for our upcoming air masses is warmer than average over Canada, which would do little to favor more than transient periods of near-below normal temps before trending warmer again. > >

I posted skill score yesterday, it is doing badly.

Yes, many folks were.

Better score soon because record warmth might be in store for later in the month.

Crazy what a hit the cryosphere has taken in North America. Was at the highs in early November, but in the last couple weeks falling off a cliff.

GFS skill scores having a recent decline.

Yuck to rain ! An East Coast Front loaded winter without snow fits a La Nina in the new base state.

Agree. Depending on the source the ideas in the HL and strat differ. For example Judah And this from Simon opposite view .........

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month, but it appears it wants to get stronger again. Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season. Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires.

Brings my seasonal snow total from the Euro Control to roughly 36 inches. I have measured zip on the ground to date. Also, even with some PV attacks via heat flux it means very little. Cold air source is a big concern and the super warm SST signature off New England remains.

@psuhoffman will be happy.

Agreed, good point. Hard to associcate this pattern / La Nina to past analogs, even with some give and take. Due to the changing background states and warmer climo this winter may end on a non-traditional note by mid to late March. We should get at least some clarity on this possibilty by the end of Jan.

This is interesting from Don S. Unlike in New York City where no measurable snowfall through December 31st is uncommon and has a strong correlation with January snowfall, in Washington, DC such outcomes are more common. There is also a lower correlation with the January outcomes. For the 23 prior cases with no measurable snowfall through December 31st, mean January snowfall was 6.1" and median January snowfall was 3.3". However, 5/23 (22%) January cases saw 10" or more snowfall. January 1987 had the most with 20.8". 3/23 (13%) January cases had no measurable snowfall. The January cases with 10" or more snowfall were: 1912: 16.9" 1987: 20.8" 2000: 14.5" 2016: 18.8" 2022: 12.3"

Isn't that climo based for a 46 day snowfall forecast. I have seen double that amount without any snow in my area during the next 46 days.

Up North the same outcomes, however, have to wonder about recent events and climate change, snapping the other way towards colder and snowier. Certainly seems a below average snowfall winter is in store according to the database. To achieve above normal snowfall this winter we need a STJ to appear in Jan and Feb, along with sustained cold. ( image below courtesy Don S. ) As mentioned by others colder weather should move into the East after Jan. 7 th. I am going to go against LESS SNOW analogs and feel that the Pac improves, - NAO returns and the AO goes very negative by later Jan. We most likely do not get a above snowfall season, but a normal season may still be possble. This view is in the minority, but I feel major changes are underway in the HL shortly, and in Asia that will promote improvements in the West. My concern is how long a better pattern lasts once we get into it. A normal transition period will need to happen.

Unless I am very tired, it appears the GFS may eventually trend to it. Also, HM said he feels there is room for things to come together next week. Thats good enough for me at the present time. From HM > " This timeline makes more sense, on a larger scale sense, than the 12/23 threat since that comes with the Siberian express. Not impossible to get favorable trends with this next week. " >