frd

That should change later I believe based on the evolution from Mount Holly's AFD above. Not so sure though how far West the heavier rain threat would be. Seems Philly North is in the stable cool sector.

From Mount Holly Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 625 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 For today, the forecast continues with the theme of slower movement out as the system looks to get hung up over the area. The latest indications continue to show a new low to develop near near Delmarva. This will occur as another piece of energy moves around the base of the upper trough over the east, and will result in more rounds of showers and storms that could once again be on the heavier side by the afternoon. Near the warm sector over the Delmarva and far southern NJ, we can`t rule out some storms becoming severe and the SPC now has a MARGINAL risk for severe storms. A heavy rain threat will also persist with a MARGINAL risk for excessive rainfall in this region as well. Further north, cooler more stable air should result in lighter rains and less risk of severe weather, particularly from Philadelphia northwards

Rain has started back up here. Radar looks somewhat hopeful, however, very muggy out there. 7:51 AM 73 F. Overcast Humidity 90% Wind Speed W 5 mph Barometer 29.86 in (1010.9 mb) Dewpoint 70°F (21°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 23 Jun 7:51 am EDT

Back edge rains here presently. Decent rates.

More severe weather potential late June and early July https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2069109423008542773 The next 2 weeks feature a good deal of potential severe weather opportunities. The NSSL machine-learning output here isn't the only thing supporting severe weather risks in late June and early July.

Hmm, might get interesting soon on the Upper Eastern Shore.

If I am guessing your exact location correctly, it appears that some crazy ass storms are on the way from your WSW

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2069101636929142827 Eastern heat ridge next week begins to retrograde west and north by holiday weekend, favoring cooler East for July 6th workweek.

Cell developed rapidly NE of Wilmington, DE. and is moving right up I-95 towards Philly.

More of a heavy rain threat. Skies have cleared here for the most part.

Up and down pattern continues

I wish

WPC increased overall precip 7 day totals ( most of that is early week )

Mount Holly more bullish with the heavy rain wording, we shall see. Good luck !

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

Seems that the Nino is already effecting the 500 look next week to late month.

Persistence

SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -

Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.

A few tiny cells popping up in extreme northeast Maryland