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Appears the modeled December to February NMME precip forecast closely resembles that of a typical Nina.

Might get a glimpse into the boreal winter pattern and outcomes during the end of Sept and early October according tho Ben.

The Nina winter of 95-96, as you mentioned was very unusual. We had cold air and coinciding active systems, producing an abundance of snowfall. Not your so called typical Nina by any means. Currently this past decade, and even more so the last 5 years summer blocking has manifested and when the winter months evolve the previous blocking from the summer and Fall diminishes, and even disappears. The last couple winters had the AO and the NAO go weeks on end in the positive phase. Snow advance, overall NH snow cover, and November blocking that some had used to forecast winter blocking ahead never took hold. The various cause have been discussed here. Two years in a row we had record high NH snow cover only to suffer January reversals that were sudden and unrecoverable from. Simply though it appears to evolve around the Hadley cell, the basin wide Pacific warmth, especially in the far SW Pacific, the record setting fast Pac jet, and recently you have to contemplate the strange gyrations of the QBO. Things were never in sync to produce extended cold during the last two winters. I would think unless we achieve some intervals of moderate blocking in the HL and help from the extinct winter - NAO we face serious obstacles in achieving even climo snowfall during the 20-21 winter season.

Data...... . more data ..... somewhere among all these model runs there has to be a fantasy snowstorm

Totally agree. However, a colder than normal winter month will occur here eventually. Whether by volcanic eruption on a massive scale, or a simple serendipitous event.

Came across some posts ( research ), maybe BAMMWX, that alluded to a July and August -AO average correlates into a warm December in the East. Eh, whats new.

What ? No way !!!! I don't believe it, unless they hacked Isotherm's formula.

Just pointing out two contributors that might be favorable. But honestly, the correlation is not strong and we are currently out of sync with things that use to work, or could be used in a analog set, or at the least, had exhibited some tendencies to be pro cold for our area versus warm. Challenges continue to mount for useful winter seasonal forecasts.

Speaking of Nina odds. A post by Don S yesterday below. If you are wondering today's SOI is + 22.40 Seems to me a good bet we get some sort of Nina developing by Fall. The one thing that interests me is the backdrop of the solar minimum. And, the eventual outcome of the QBO in Dec . and early winter. < Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010. >

I know I read a couple posts by HM on the QBO behavior during the past 6 months, and even recall some insights as well from Dr Amy Butler. Strange year so far for the QBO for sure. Good luck to those whom want to put out a winter forecast for 20/21. I would say the odds of discovering the correct winter drivers at about 33 %. Those who love the warm train might go climo ( 1990 - 2019 ) + 2 degrees. Those cold and snow weenies better hope for a 95-96 repeat. Sure we can get a cold snow event but difficult to see cold lock in with the same issues re-appearing such as the enhanced fast Pac jet and difficulties in achieving properly timed HL blocking ( or any blocking for that matter) along with the elusive -NAO. Speaking of stratospheric oddities.

@psuhoffman Good points on the post above. Analogs post 2010 have become useless to a degree. And, since 2015 you can probably even reinforce that notion with the Super Nino ( residual ocean warming , etc ) and add to that the recent ocean heat waves taking place. A somewhat newer phenomenon. I see even the great Don Sutherland has added something fitting and new to his weather summaries and look ahead monthly forecasts/stats. PSU , see here ( bolded ) from Don's recent post. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. He is incorporating the new climate warming into his summary, very interesting. For me personally , I see no end to the issues in the Pac this winter that have haunted us the past 3 winters. So many elements in addition to the Pac are negatives for a cold and snowy winter in our part of the world.

And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW.

Better late than never. This is interesting as well image of above for Sept 2019

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.

I read we are nowhere near the low point of the still progressing solar minimum.

@bluewave Do you feel the general warmth and especially the warmth in the recent fall months, Sept and October mostly, has been associated with the above average SST off the East Coast and the nature of the WAR. A sort of feedback taking place possibly which also plays a role in moisture transport up along the East Coast and warmer over night lows via higher dews. Any thoughts? Thanks !

What, if any consequences does this have for high lattitide blocking in October and even beyond, in and around this region ? Also, recently looking at the SST changes in the Gulf Of Alaska they are rising . Would any of this warmth cause and or re-inforce a + PDO in developing in the month(s) ahead.

I have a question in the lawn thread second one to the bottom, can you check it out and tell me what you think please > It's about grass and watering , Thanks !

Very nice, I like ! !

It does stink when you are a gardener .