frd

In my opinion the stellar correlation to the AO, which has held positive since December 22, 2019 was, and is a great forecast tool. The AO is still heading higher in the short term. Never a chance for any snow despite the earlier modeling. Even low temps that might have broken freezing this weekend are in the mid 30's for my region.

I am very sorry for the loss your family member. I just had to put our dog to sleep two weeks ago. The sadness was so overwhelming. We miss him very much as I know you miss your pal and buddy. The bonds we make and the impact of a dog on a person's life is almost impossible to describe. The benefit to our mental health and the companionship, and devoted unwavering love is a thing to cherish . I cried for hours and was deeply depressed for days. I will always miss my best friend. Those we love do not leave us but walk besides us every day. Invisible and silent but always near. You can feel it at times though. I am sure your dog lived a wonderful life and you can always reflect back that you and your family brought years of happiness to your beloved terrier.

Looking ahead it seems like the growing season might be ahead of schedule. When do you drop your crab grass treatment? I normally look to the forsythia, they say as long as you drop it before they bloom you are good, as crab grass seeds tend to germinate at a specific soil temp which normally follows after the first blooms of the forsythia bush. Wondering whether they bloom early this year.

Scand blocking coming up it seems, not - NAO depiction though.

Northern Delaware missing the somewhat better action in your area, currently a somewhat chilly 45 degrees here.

Cape Cod crush job incoming. Maybe the wind can blow the moss of my trees. So wet, even after the recent dry several days. Meanwhile, the last 30 day AO state and amplitude suggests a warm March. The CPC recently updated the 30 day outlook to mild across wide areas of the country for March. So, for now the focus becomes what of April? Some analogs suggest a cooler April after a mild March. Personally bring me dryness and sun in April and no eternal 15 days in a row of dark depressing cloudy days.

Speculations can be made, and not sure myself the causes here as referenced by Maue beyond lagged effects and warm oceans, but this trend along with the lack of a strong Nino is a bit concerning. This itself is remarkable as well.

Agreed, gaining sun fast and next week DST starts, also get some sun and vit D 3 conversion going on which is proven to increase your resistance to viruses and strengthens your immune system, and a natural anti depressant too! I have given up on snow weeks ago. I still look every few days at the models but expect nothing and so far nothing it has been. On a long term note of interest, these bad winters have happened before and we will bounce back in the next few years.

Hopefully this background state changes as the year progresses. Even HM commented the last time in regards to the HL and the NAM this winter was way back in the Pinatubo era. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/ Deep Westerlies, as Simon states, and your Westerly dominant AAM regime mentioned by Matt are keys . Put that on your checklist next December. No changes expected here for at least a month or longer, I might speculate months.

The Atlantic is going to boil this summer. As will your grass , but maybe the extreme heat will kill your moles. Might be an early and a extended beach season this year . The robust Western Atlantic ridge may be so large at times to deflect storms into the Gulf but we are to a degree due for a East Coast threat that effects a large portion of the coastline, such as a Donna track. And yes, it will be a long summer but you never know, the consensus early on is for heat but why not think chaos and maybe a cooler summer is in the cards. Hard to go against extreme heat coming out of this winter but you never know.

Very impressive deep dive on the PNA coming up along with the expected adjustment on the AO index. currently moving back up in the extended after a rather feeble attempt at neutral. The long lasting AO positive trend shows no indication of reversing as does the very strong vortex.

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there.

@psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday

Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing and seeing a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions, it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month.

The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues. I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter . One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is. I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us. In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win.

Great update from Don S . Here it is courtesy 33: << posted 24 minutes ago By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported. The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East. My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution: During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week. If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°. If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8". >>

Similar to the issues last year at times. Little ROI in hobby land these days, as Bob did the right thing focusing on the cha ching. Maybe in Feb. we score as we hopefully progress to a more traditional Nino-ish pattern along with legitimate threats. If we hit a great two week snow period we can still make up for lost time.

We don't need extreme cold for the favored period as you mention. Maybe arctic air waits for late Feb , seriously. Wonder if we go to a typical Nino pattern in the later stages of the every two week pattern. If we can flood Canada with super frigid air in mid Feb and then deliver it via an improving NAM state maybe it is possible. The ridge pushing West during Feb fits the Nino progression as you mentioned as well. We know during early Feb and on we will have the active STJ . Another time period to note is one that also seems to be on a pattern, and I am referring to the PV vacillation cycle.....( in strong Vortex winters ) ...date of the 20th of the month , as HM posted days ago, ( see last two HM posts ) it has been going on near that date on a regular basis. Wonder if that ties into a significant event for us near Feb 18 th to the 22 nd.

Of note, bluewave mentioned this a while back, we have been lacking a Miller A track and even a Benchmark storm(s) in the winter recently . Folks have scored up North but in some unusual ways. The Pac jet the last two years, in varying ways, has interfered with some of our favored windows/threats for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic, to what degree is debatable, and you can refer to climo, as it just being par for the course. Some years everything goes right, some not so much.

Whether this matters down the road is debatable , but there does seem to be some indication is a slowing of the zonal winds in the weeks ahead. Not sure how much of that is typical seasonal effects taking hold. ( weakening ) Any one know when the new QBO data arrives ?

Excellent points, goes along what I was thinking about change in general, no one pattern has legs.

A very intense wave breaking cyclonic event next week, wonder the implications for the time period afterwards. Very complex to figure this one out for us.

If we can get some cold air masses to be present during early Feb, we will have an active STJ to work with. However, I can see a lot of ways to lose. Cold air seems to lose out the closer we get to any events so far this season , and sometimes the Pac jet interferes with Western ridging. But, there is potential, which is better than 70 and sunny on Groundhog's Day.

This November's head fake, just like November 2018, was alluring and drew some folks in . The seasonal models so far are nailing this winter. Too bad they sucked last winter in predicting the epic pattern that did a Pamela Anderson. Bravo so far to Isotherm. Modeling in the long range this year seems no better than last year in losing favorable patterns. Whether it means the little things that are causing it or larger scale issues, what matters to me is that you can not put any faith in solutions beyond day 6. I know our regional climo sucks for snowfall, but you have to see that there have been some rather large scale busts in patterns in the medium range since November , with incredible swings in the EPS and the GFS.

The close up is is rated XXX