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I forget what recent year it was, it may have been 2017 come to think of it , definitely one of the last 6 or 7 winters. The tracks were almost ideal , favoring snow, but the cold air was stale and the confluence never held. Not sure what the cause(s) were, but it lasted a good part of the winter. There were even issues far to the NE as well . .

There has been a few of these the last several months. This one looks very impressive.

I will ride the -AO in the future. I just hope we can improve the NAM state towards the end of the month and early Feb. Would be so awesome to enter a period of blocking at the HL that sticks for while. Not expecting a SSWE but a weakening is certainly possible.

@psuhoffman there is your dry trending to normal precip between the 22 nd and the 28th. Whether the normal precip is wet or white , well who knows.

Cold and snowy forecasts draw you in and then it goes warmer, less snow, then the winter cancel weenies come out and right on cue you see the colder forecast with snow potential, then the cold arrives, in shorter duration than what was expected , snow threats don't live up to expectations, rinse and repeat, Almost seems to happen on a pre-planned schedule. I know our climo is not snow friendly but even HM has made several posts over the past 3 months regarding a trace phenomena. That snowy post I did this morning about the MJO, I did without much concern, but since then things have degraded. Whether he is correct or not remains to be seen. I am waiting on the NAM change at some point. I am still not enthused over the snow prospects down the road. However, Don S came up with some interesting stats regarding the AO. And holly cow was the AO really + 4.36........ but Judah ? Here is Don's recent post: << Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.368. 　 The AO will average above +3.000 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. >>> 　

Some feel the MJO help only gives us a limited window later this month. Some pros feel the MJO will not lead to a month long period of cold and snow, that goes to the end of Feb. . Without a better NAM state an active STJ may only deliver wet versus white. Progressive systems like you say or even cutters. I wonder though the lag effect regarding the MJO and how that plays out for mid Feb. I am not sure those who state winter might be over after the first week of Feb is accurate. I also know the MJO does not control 100 % of the weather outcome here. These folks with an early winter ending are going against the CFS and the weeklies. But, to be honest, I place no real value in either model due to past performance issues. Even consensus means very little, case in point last year. We can still lose the favorable pattern they are portraying , as it has happened many times the past two winters. I bring you this post by snowy over at 33 , it is any interesting read. And for the record I am delivering information, I have no real stance or feeling about where we go down the road. It is still very complex and hard to call. I present both good and bad views on the snow and cold outlook. One option is cold and snow potential until early Feb and then moderation and then one last period of winter in late Feb to early March. Here is snowy's post: ,,,,, You can’t deny the pattern will be good for the Eastern US for the last two weeks of January, based on the strong MJO pass over Phase 7-8: I don’t see the same support for February, the MJO basically goes dark again after a counteracting opposite MJO signal passes over Maritime Continent and to a lesser extent, the Pacific. The Indian Ocean dominant base state is re-established by the latest EC-46. CFS still plays the weaker Early February card, and perhaps a better late February (next GWO cycle?). But with an uncooperative stratosphere and NAM, I can’t see a cold risk sustained for a month, based upon one MJO pass. I’d enjoy the rest of January while it lasts IMO It should be good. >>>

A recent post from bluewave. He made a good point about the MJO and the Nino response. <<<<<< Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes. >>>>>>>

+FT , looking good

Update from Don S courtesy 33 : <<<< Late afternoon thoughts... 1. Yesterday, the MJO reached Phase 5 at amplitude of 2.430 (a January record for Phase 5). 2. Historically, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8 at amplitude of 1.000 or above following its being in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. 3. The idea of a pattern change featuring a trough in the means in the East remains on track. 15-day Mean 500 mb Height Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO peaks in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: >>>>

Ha ha ... funny Ryan

Weeklies = Well, looks good to me ......

SWEET

I love when you start seeing more blues and pink South of us versus North, a sure indication better times are a coming. I see a few of those solutions here, hopefully more in the days to come.

Will be awaiting for the afternoon EPS with bated breathe. I am hoping for a more favorable West Based NAO. If so, might be tracking at long leads.

Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling. ,

Northern Delaware with a higher Kuchera than Philly or NYC, hey I am in !!!!!!!!

Active is the word it seems. The CFS has a nice snow event portrayed for the period near the 20th. The more active, I would assume the better the odds of scoring. Snow on snow would excite me.

Progression continues - keep in mind the lag effect as well, as Matt mentions. Wondering myself about how deep into Feb.we can keep the favorable pattern.

Unlike last year it appears we have a Nino response.

I would think this may increase the potential for cold and storms from late Jan through March. This more typical Nino-ish pattern and descending QBO might be enough to have a rather stormy and cold March as well, but some feel we need to have some sort of SSW to accomplish winter to late March.

I am wondering @Bob Chill if this event here is not one of a couple that helps to create the NAO block. Crazy, double the rate, of intensification going on here. A super Bomb !

Sometimes, as Bob states, the - NAO simply arrives unexpectedly. Although, the Euro Control did have a solution a few days back showing a stout Davis Straits block, maybe even earlier than that. Hopefully, it becomes a reality and raises the potential of a more significant storm, very cold and longer duration, and even a HA event as previously mentioned. MJO phase 8 seems to support a -NAO, but I believe we will not be into phase 8 until early Feb, ( depending on the model you choose ) So, assuming this NAO block is brought about by Atlantic cyclonic wave breaking and deep ULL passages. If so , does the block last longer than the transient blocks so far this season ? I mention that possibility because the progressing MJO to phase 8 could end support for a longer lasting NAO block.

I love the look, and totally agree with the potential . From Eric Webb , courtesy 33, Here is Eric's post: < As you'd expect for a central Pacific MJO event coupled w/ a NINO leaning base state, the LR GEFS has a very active southern stream and is wet in the southern US and along the eastern seaboard.

Putting down bets for some sort of HA event ........ after day 10.

For those who worried Canada would be scoured of cold I just looked and knew it was going to be cold up there, but some of these numbers and the expanse of the arctic air is remarkable. So, there is your cold air source for down the road. https://www.timescolonist.com/strong-winds-snow-on-b-c-s-south-coast-snow-deep-freeze-in-the-north-1.24049987