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I believe Judah's second follow up post was directed at @psuhoffman as a disclaimer of sorts ..... Always good to say, not a forecast, not everywhere will be cold. Hey, at least we have snow cover that' s all I am after. Here is my disclaimer psu - I am a not a Judah supporter, this post was paid for by the Alliance of Snow Advance Index Members, all 3 of them.

Pretty crazy look forecasted around mid November and the implications for the strat.

Continued trends downward with the AO and trending up with the PNA

The MJO has gotten my interest as of late . Also of note, the lack of the MJO going into very high amplitude. Also, seeing the signs of more favorable phases for us here. There is a lot more to the MJO as well as certain phases aid in strat disruptions. I see today the SOI making a big move down as well 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 Keep this in mind as well

Many folks share this view. Some concerns are increasing the odds that the holiday period will be very warm, such as recent years, also that the cold air mass is wasted because snow climo itself is still too early and hostile. However, some areas of the country I have seen in the past do start early, with cold and snow, and remain so during the heart of winter. I hope this is not a head fake. I believe there are plenty of reasons to expect cold and snow in the NE this winter.

Like last winter I would keep an eye on the ENSO region 1.2 If region 1.2 were to warm significantly I believe it could overwhelm the pattern for us here in the East in a negative fashion, and lead to warmth and a poor storm track. There are many favorable elements that are pointing to cold and snow, but I prefer we remain in the SST profile that we have basically have maintained the last several months in Pac. If BAMMWX is bringing up the potential warming of ENSO 1.2 as a possible concern it gets my attention. This of course goes with the notion that most of us here know that region 1.2 is prone to wild short-term fluctuations.

Taken with a grain of salt , but nice to see the AO negative and staying negative. I think the Euro Ensemble index more likely to be correct. ( last image )

Great Lakes to cool off and snow in SE Canada. Very impressive forecast map. The question later in the month is whether there is a whole sale pattern change, or just a relaxation , even a version of an Indian summer if you may. I remember Joel Myers saying in the old days , 1970's and 1980's you can only pull the rubber band so much before it pulls back or snaps. In this case keeping a highly anomalous winter like pattern for an extended period of time makes you wonder the implications for the first 1/3 of the meteorological winter. Of course, there are things that argue after a brief to moderate relaxation we go back to what the base state may want to provide, which is an active storm track(s), and penetrations of cold air. this takes place as wavelengths continue to lengthen.

@showmethesnow I brought up the record +PMM a month or so ago. Rolling forward from Sept. to November and then December a very high +PMM gives a decent signal for a cold November in the East , and a even more robust cold signal for December. I even recall it has, in December, the ability to help in phasing and in introducing a more active and present STJ stream, through longer wavelengths, . Not saying it is going to work out, because about 90 % of mets are going with a warm December this year. I feel we can go normal with colder risks and stormier as well. BAMMWx so far is on a roll.

Nice seeing some pressure being applied on the PV to keep it from rapidly getting stronger. As HM stated, you simply can not go by the last days of October and early November, in regards to the PV strength, as a proxy to the implications for the ensuing winter. Also seems we are taking a different approach this late Fall with the location of the PV and the general behaviors in the HL. Some similarities later next week if we get a significant snow storm to our North, but feeling that does not gloom the winter coming up. Also, looking back at the summer in the Northern Plains and continuing even now with the placement of the coldest anomalies, well they seem to want to take shop on our side of the pole. Not seeing any red flags so far with the MJO. and nice seeing the + PNA kick up.

A most interesting set-up in terms of the warming origins.

Low of 31 degrees here this morning. Heavy frost almost like a covering of light snow.

Maybe the early November cold has legs.

This makes a lot of sense and goes along with some of the mets I follow. The talk from some of them, including HM here is that "if" the seasonal models are indeed getting the winter NAO signal from forecasting and anticipating a strong to very strong PV, well, if the vortex if weaker, or more prone to shifts and elongations then the seasonal call for a mostly + NAO during December through Feb. might be very wrong. Taken a step further would potentially equate to a very different sensible weather outcome for some folks. Please keep in mind HM is talking about the AO and I am inferring the association to the NAO domain and the relationship of a not so strong PV.

If the UKmet couldn't forecast the seasonal NAO last winter, even after doubling down in November, how the hell can this trash model even attempt a seasonal forecast and for 4 months in a row as well of a + NAO ? Wait, persistence is modeled into the physics. It does have company, but many models last Fall called for a -NAO average during the winter. I don't buy it yet.

Difficult keeping the coffee hot this morning, with this chill in the air. Nice to hear from you, and looking forward to your insights as the season progresses.

So far, so good with the MJO.

Incredible winds last night estimate near 50 plus near midnight, many limbs down . Huge area under a freeze warning from Mount Holly. I put the hoses and sprinklers away, debating whether to cover the annuals, but the mums should still be OK I imagine. 930 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...Portions of northern, northwest and southern New Jersey, east central and southeast Pennsylvania and northeast Maryland. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Not to jinx us, but love seeing the orientation of the PV combined with the location and from there tons of snow will be put down just to our NW and a breeding ground for some very cold air delivery, eventually a direct discharge. We did not have this last year. Also, it seems the atmosphere, at least so far, is conducive to showing ( and delivering ) a good pattern. Hopefully any turn to the milder later in November is just a reload, or a brief moderation. Still like a normal December with snowfall opportunities.

QBO looking good so far

Cold and active Novembers correlates with March the best. Cold and snowy Decembers I read correlate better with the period Jan 1 to Feb 28 th. Of course as we know there are exceptions. If you believe the notion that this will be a back loaded winter, combined with a possibly colder and more active November leads me to think this March will have higher odds of snow and cold. With the exception of last March, we have trended to winters lasting longer, and starting later in this decade. @MountainGeek This is interesting Granted October 2009 was much colder , then November turned warmer in time

Like clockwork

Continued downward

Watched a great webinar about the upcoming winter featured by BAMMWX I took some notes while watching - was an awesome presentation. I did the best I could writing down the most important points. Analogs temps: 77/78 79/80 03/94 95/96 04/05 Analogs precip : 95/96 77/78 79 /80 93/94 Main warmer risk is that the Eastern ENSO areas warm up from the current levels. Month with the least confidence, December. Most confidence in Jan., Feb and the shoulder month March. ( cold, active, snowier ) Last years SH SSWE caused the SA Easterly wind signal and warmed the Eastern ENSO and impacted the winter . Impacted the MJO and the Jet. There is an association with SH's weather events/ SSWE , etc. and the effects on the MJO phase and movement in the Western Pac and the Maritime continent BAMMWx expects more phasing potential this year in the East, more STJ , etc. Biggest concern here the STJ outruns the PJ but they believe that will not be the case this winter. Can't ignore the last 18 years worth of Decembers, but there are significant signals that this December could be cold ( just be aware the ENSO argues against it to a degree, versus other factors that support it ) Early Season PV formation, shape and location are conducive to the delivery of cold air masses over the US. Different than other past early season PV. Solar min very significant , Sept 2019, lowest sunspot number since 1901. QBO, during the past 7 days has descended more than the past two months. QBO phase and shear favorable for cold in the East Interesting note that this year argues against splits but a weakened more elongated PV is favored. Also, the current location over Canada may be very hard to move and may favor our side of the pole. Other thing to consider robust NH snow cover. Able to deliver fresh arctic air masses into the NE Neutral ENSO combined with a + IOD leads to a cold East ( 3 rd most + IOD at this time ) + QBO at 50 mb lessens the MJO or keeps it closer to phases 8 , 1 and 2, much different than last year. Cold winter phases are most likely . This is already happening According the BAMMWX the PDO is not the biggest driver. + PMM although not as positive recently, there is still a very strong signal for a tall North Pacific ridge and a trough in the East in December. There is also the association of a more enhanced STJ as well. Can enhance phasing as well. Overall BAMMWX going with a colder December and a generally cold and snowy winter forecast. Some other notes - ENSO set up - most important is the placement of the warmer and cooler anomalies - currently Warmer West , much cooler Easter regions. Latest data, sub surface warmth increasing in the Western areas ENSO is the main factor against a cold December in the East Kirk mentioned he expects a change in the weeklies soon, and that many times the reason the Euro weeklies and seasonal do so poorly is a poor initialization CFS HDD doing a lot better EURO with a 8 to 14 point warm bias days 9 to 14

Even areas that scored last November with snow went on to meager seasonal snowfall totals. I am stirring the pot about December. I can see this December going in several directions. It could buck the trend of recent years where November was cold and then the following December went warm or warmer. Hm's post about the period after 12/20 makes you think. Last December had the feeling it would be a more normal month until the ensembles starting painting a different picture. Several forecasters had a snowy holiday period but alas that did not work out. We very well could cycle back to a favorable pattern later in December , even if we turn milder at some point. Again for us, it would be great to get a Western based - NAO in December to increase our odds combined with a -AO.