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After replacing the mulch I had to do it again this morning. That line had a few heavier cells go across the upper Chesapeake Bay/Eastern Shore which dropped .30 inches of rain here last night . Total with TS was 5.75. Ground soil should be good for a while. Refreshing this morning at 67 degrees when I woke up.

And don't forget, that was back in the day when a Nino did what a Nino was suppose to do. In this day and age with global warming the outcomes expected are no longer so simple. Since 2010 there have been noted changes in various mechanisms that would typically deliver cold and snow to the East with a moderate to almost strong El Nino. The use of analogs prior to 2010, to me, prove little value. A blended approach to forecasting the Winter IMHO might be the best way to go. Of course they also need to be tweaked and modified for GW.

HM spoke about this potential yesterday.

Finally last night got hit with a rather prolonged heavy rain event along with a a STW for my area. Seems the outflow boundaries from the storm complex in Se PA spawned new storms to my NW and then these storms , or rather a large complex, dropped Southward. Very impressive rain and wind event. Even post rainfall the winds were very gusty. Rain gauge at home was at 1.75 inches. At least the grass crowns are saved for the next round of heat and will be nice not to have to water for a while.

I read you can also steak them just like tomato plants, along with pruning . FYI https://www.theartofdoingstuff.com/youve-been-growing-your-zucchini-all-wrong/

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? Total speculation, but wondering if there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends during the summer . And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East. Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.

I also thought about this as I mowed the lawn this glorious morning. I can tell the sun and temps are stressing the cooler fescue grass out rather quickly. Everything looks great but the last heatwave did in some on the front lawn. Now the focus is keeping crab grass away and weeds in general, focus on the flowers beds and the garden. Then plan for the eventual over seed in early Sept. Last October the front looked great. Good advice regarding seed from @C.A.P.E. The never ending cycle. Wonder what a neutral or even a Nina Sept QFP will look like around these parts, LOL probably a brown and dry look. Unless the tropics make multiple visits.

Clearing here currently with the early morning storms moving off the Southern NJ coastline. Wind threat appears impressive, even after the any squall line later this afternoon, and the expiration of the wind advisory , gusty winds will continue until later Saturday, combined with temps in the 30's over night. HM chimes in.

Would love @Isotherm 's take on this. I myself thought the pay off was the winter ahead , so 20-21, however, I am not sure, I also thought there was a multi-year - NAO lag after a solar min. Believe the projected min date is between March and May 2020. Some feel the association with deep winters ( colder winter and more snow ) and the solar min has been watered down and diminished due to a reduction in overall global sea ice .in the past 50 years. Just speculation there.

@psuhoffman hmm saw this and thought of your post yesterday

Something to think about , this does coincide with a period of reduced zonal winds. However ,based on what I am hearing and seeing a true official SSWE is not likely this winter. The vortex is resilient and strong. But as HM mentions, it does have a vacillation cycle near the 20th of the month.

The theme of the little things screwing us continues. Realistically with a look like that in Western Canada you would think the Atlantic might react better in the area near Greenland, instead look at that hot mess. The multi winter + NAO continues. I was reading about the dynamic models versus the statistical models in terms of the HL call for the winter . One model camp sure nailed it. Well, at least so far that is. I still have hope for February. The progression of sensible weather ,not necessarily how we got there, does seem to match Tom's progression nicely. If so, his ideas and the notion we pull back ridging in Feb and get an East Coast trough would spell opportunities for us. In this new day and age of non-analog winters and changing base states I would be happy with just a two week window of very cold and snowy weather. I don't even care if I don't hit average snowfall , give me 50 % of the season in two weeks with cold and wind and make it look like days of old . To me that is a win.

Great update from Don S . Here it is courtesy 33: << posted 24 minutes ago By now, the above normal height anomalies shown on the closing days of the operational ECMWF have likely gained notice. Those height anomalies and the accompanying temperature rebound are well-supported. The 12z GEFS is in good agreement with the 12z operational ECMWF at 240 hours. However, by the end of the GEFS run, the area of above normal height anomalies retrogrades toward western Canada and a trough takes shape in the East. My thinking has been and, at least for now, remains as noted in my nearly daily discussions of the longer-term pattern evolution: During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. Obviously, the situation bears watching. At least for me, I will need to see more evidence that the change is not a temporary period of moderation (highlighted above) during a transition toward a more sustained period of cold. The evolution of the teleconnections and progression of the MJO will provide insight over the next week. If people want something gloomy to consider, January 1-15, 1998 had a mean temperature of 43.3° (2020 was 42.7°) in New York City. February 1998 went on to have a mean temperature of 40.6°. If people want something more appealing to consider, January 1-15, 1907 had a mean temperature of 43.5°. February 1907 had a mean temperature of 25.9° and monthly snowfall of 21.8". >>

Similar to the issues last year at times. Little ROI in hobby land these days, as Bob did the right thing focusing on the cha ching. Maybe in Feb. we score as we hopefully progress to a more traditional Nino-ish pattern along with legitimate threats. If we hit a great two week snow period we can still make up for lost time.

We don't need extreme cold for the favored period as you mention. Maybe arctic air waits for late Feb , seriously. Wonder if we go to a typical Nino pattern in the later stages of the every two week pattern. If we can flood Canada with super frigid air in mid Feb and then deliver it via an improving NAM state maybe it is possible. The ridge pushing West during Feb fits the Nino progression as you mentioned as well. We know during early Feb and on we will have the active STJ . Another time period to note is one that also seems to be on a pattern, and I am referring to the PV vacillation cycle.....( in strong Vortex winters ) ...date of the 20th of the month , as HM posted days ago, ( see last two HM posts ) it has been going on near that date on a regular basis. Wonder if that ties into a significant event for us near Feb 18 th to the 22 nd.

Of note, bluewave mentioned this a while back, we have been lacking a Miller A track and even a Benchmark storm(s) in the winter recently . Folks have scored up North but in some unusual ways. The Pac jet the last two years, in varying ways, has interfered with some of our favored windows/threats for us here in the Northern Mid Atlantic, to what degree is debatable, and you can refer to climo, as it just being par for the course. Some years everything goes right, some not so much.

Whether this matters down the road is debatable , but there does seem to be some indication is a slowing of the zonal winds in the weeks ahead. Not sure how much of that is typical seasonal effects taking hold. ( weakening ) Any one know when the new QBO data arrives ?

Excellent points, goes along what I was thinking about change in general, no one pattern has legs.

A very intense wave breaking cyclonic event next week, wonder the implications for the time period afterwards. Very complex to figure this one out for us.

If we can get some cold air masses to be present during early Feb, we will have an active STJ to work with. However, I can see a lot of ways to lose. Cold air seems to lose out the closer we get to any events so far this season , and sometimes the Pac jet interferes with Western ridging. But, there is potential, which is better than 70 and sunny on Groundhog's Day.

This November's head fake, just like November 2018, was alluring and drew some folks in . The seasonal models so far are nailing this winter. Too bad they sucked last winter in predicting the epic pattern that did a Pamela Anderson. Bravo so far to Isotherm. Modeling in the long range this year seems no better than last year in losing favorable patterns. Whether it means the little things that are causing it or larger scale issues, what matters to me is that you can not put any faith in solutions beyond day 6. I know our regional climo sucks for snowfall, but you have to see that there have been some rather large scale busts in patterns in the medium range since November , with incredible swings in the EPS and the GFS.

The close up is is rated XXX

Latest from Don S about an hour ago. I enjoy his updates for our area in regards to the information he presents on the MJO sand the AO. Here is Don's post: <<<< Today again saw temperatures run above normal. In the Southeast, near record and record warmth prevailed. However, the prevalent pattern that saw New York City record a mean temperature of 42.7° during January 1-15 (6th warmest on record going back to 1869) is coming to a close. Winter has not been canceled. During the coming weekend, colder temperatures are likely. The temperature could even fall into the teens in New York City on Saturday morning. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and it could continue into at least the first week of February. 　 In addition, on Friday night and Saturday a system could bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. 　 Initial snowfall estimates are: 　 Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Islip: 2" or less New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 1"-3" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Poughkeepsie: 3"-6" Scranton: 3"-6" 　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. 　 The SOI was -11.63 today. 　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.622. 　 The AO had a preliminary average of +3.560 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. 　 No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 23. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. 　 On January 14, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.258 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.554. 　 Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. 　 Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. 　 In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. The first such event should occur this coming weekend. 　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 84% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 36.0° in New York City. 　 Finally, the latest C3S multi-system forecast suggests that the February-April temperature will likely be somewhat warmer than normal for the region (despite what could be a colder than normal February) and warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in Europe where winter has been largely absent. >>>>>

Some humor is what I needed . LOL

I need to study about the - MVP, first I heard about this. Another wrinkle in my expectations. Not enough time in the day. So much data. Maybe Bob or psu know.