frd
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Everything posted by frd
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True, that is why I mentioned the area further upstream in PA. Yeah, its a considerable distance from you, but moving on a trajectory to head South and be on the Eastern Shore. Currently that area is warned with a STW and a FFW. ( More than likely that area may dissipate looking at the lastest trends. ) Storms that were headed towards me went poof.
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I hope you get nailed pretty good later. Would be great if the energy /storms near Lancaster, PA settled over you area later this evening.
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Without question storms are certainly firing up. When looking at the hi res radar you can see it perfectly. Pretty cool !
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Interesting boundary from the storms in South Jersey is moving SW through Northern DE into NE MD, causing storms to fire. I just missed one to my South.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ ... Friday/Day 7 and Beyond -- Upper Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic ... Strong northwest flow will be established between the previously described western US ridge and eastern Canadian trough. Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be present to the south of a residual cold front that will be draped somewhere from the Great Lakes southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England. Strong diurnal heating each afternoon will support scattered thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging outflows. Severe probabilities were introduced for Day 7 with this outlook given increasing confidence in thunderstorms developing within surface troughing east of the Appalachians. The exact location of these highlights will likely be refined with subsequent outlooks. Additionally, the overall large-scale pattern seems conducive for one or more shortwave troughs to move through the broader northwesterly flow across this region. Given the (seasonably) strongly unstable and sheared environment, one or more southeastward moving MCSs may be possible during the Day 7 - Day 10 period. Ensemble guidance varies significantly as to the timing and location of these potential short-wave troughs, but the overall pattern would suggest additional severe weather potential at the end of the forecast period and in the days that follow. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2026
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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off While probability outlooks could still change significantly being 7 days out, early ML & AI outlooks have currently identified a 15%-30% probability for severe weather occurrence associated with this system. As details on this system become more defined, will have to continue to monitor synoptic fluctuations in model guidance to help identify any hazards associated with this system in the coming days.
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Pretty good rainfall here. Mount Holly's forecast already verified in terms of rainfall totals. 1.33 from the slow moving morning storms, however, the highest probs were later in the day. Many folks were suprised by the heavy rains.
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Of course it rained here a bit this AM., when probs were low, now I can't the lawn. Lets see if the flood watch delivers for later. Mount Holly states the highest threat for severe is South of Philly. Large area of cloud cover at this time.
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Mount Holly in my grid has one to three inches of rain tomorrow night
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We will be tired of the blizzards.
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Things were much greener last July. These excessive 100 degree days has stressed a lot of the plants here and the lawns. Recent dew points and exceptional heat has started some blight in tomato plants. The WPC has increased rainfall in the 3 day, 5 day and 7 day outlooks. Not sure its the Nino starting so early, but I will take it. Also, in regards to severe potential, the 10 th and the 15/16 th look interesting on machine learning NSSL https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2074470678669992148 Day-by-day NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities for the next 2 weeks below highlight severe potential lare this week and this weekend into next week with a potential upper-level ridge pattern setting up in the Plains.
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GFS too spotty. WPC is looking good for day three.
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Its a swamp out there. The NW flow pattern seems to be gone.
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True, and should not be dessert dry.
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But,
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https://x.com/NWSWPC/status/2074122821928657134
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That's great news I hope you continue to get more rain. I know Dover has been suffering badly with a lack of rainfall, other areas were benefiting , but everything seemed to missed Dover.
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Holy smokes it's raining in Dover Delaware.
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1.20 here last night
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The storm moving North up the MD and De border is cra cra
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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 649 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 MDC011-035-052315- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-260705T2315Z/ Queen Anne`s MD-Caroline MD- 649 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN QUEEN ANNE`S AND NORTHEASTERN CAROLINE COUNTIES... At 649 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Goldsboro to near Hope, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Centerville, Centreville, Church Hill, Starkey Corner, Wye Mills, Starr, Carville, Hope, Henderson, and Barclay. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3921 7600 3922 7597 3908 7575 3907 7576 3894 7606 3894 7609 3895 7609 TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 203DEG 20KT 3910 7580 3901 7600 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ MPS
