frd

I still have not done the overseeding yet. Keep putting it off due to heat and now if there is a wash out that would be bad. Its a gamble as to when the first frost hits. Normal time is late October, but hopefully with these everlasting Falls maybe it waits till the third week of November. Hard to say. Believe you need 45 days post over seed for seeds to live.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Seasonal ECMWF guidance predicts a prominent Alaskan ridge this winter, which would allow the polar jet stream to deliver cold air to the northern United States. However, a relatively strong eastern ridge is shown — stronger than last winter — which could shield the East Coast. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1975561499180736754

Mount Holly's forecast for this Friday through Monday has no mention of rain for my area. Yesterday it had a 30 % chance of showers. Seems the probability of significant rainfall is decreasing although the range of outcomes is mentioned in the morning AFD. Guidance still differs in the evolution of the coastal system from Saturday night into early next week, but we are beginning to see a range of potential outcomes for our area. A weaker and/or farther south solution with the surface low would translate to lesser impacts and lower chances of showers for our region. A stronger and/or farther north placement of the surface low pressure would translate to greater and potentially more significant impacts to our area, especially along and near the coast. This may include potential for coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds near the coast and possibly inland across the coastal plain. Again, a lot of uncertainty with this system, but it bears monitoring closely as it could pack a punch if it draws close enough to our area.

Or, even go further South depending on the power and position of the block, just too early to know.

Mostly cloudy now, despite the forecast of mostly sunny.

Very lucky here presently, with .36 inch so far.

That must be mostly Siberia I would think. But, still good.

The stadium effect is incredible. Looks like a West Pac super Typhoon.

Starting my overseed project this Weds to coincide with the lower air temps, a bit late, but hopefully still Ok . i am fighting dollar spot and leaf spot so I am not even using nitrogen yet but using a couple soil amendments.

Rather warm to our North and West in the longrange Canada also very warm.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Hurricane Season Update | Tuesday Evening September 23, 2025 High chance of both Invest 93L & 94L developing into hurricanes with a risk to the U.S. East Coast from one of them. Major intensity on table for both --> High Uncertainty Updated ECMWF 18z cycle has Humberto and Imelda moving in concert to the NNW Highly unusual to have twin hurricanes not repelling each other or orbiting a center of mass. Uncertainty = HIGH with these two systems (currently Invest 93L and Invest 94L)

WPC seems to have cut back rainfall of total significantly with their latest afternoon update in the 7-Day. Haven't had a chance to look at the models. Do the models concur with less rainfall for our area?

So where is the Sun? It is almost as difficult to predict Sunshine nowadays, as it is to predict snowfall in winter. My forecast grid was for mostly sunny skies. Now I see clouds have moved in already after 1 hour of sunshine at sunrise.

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. Have you started? Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

Mount Holly forecast has cloudy weather for 6 days in a row. How depressing

WPC beefing up rainfall totals with latest update. ( to a degree ) Accu-weather Philly states they doubt rain makes it this far North.

This is the latest from the WPC concerning this time period. Will be interesting to monitor future trends.

It is pretty hot in the sun today