frd

https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2092170030330900537 Jim Cantore @JimCantore 7h Baking HOT ridge in the southwest and south central USA will flatten and expand east with its HEAT. This should commence over the weekend finally giving the southwest a break to start the new week. Meanwhile the Central USA, the Mid-South and Southeast bake once again as we start September. Some thunderstorm activity will give some a break.

Pumpkin spice Latte time.

Appears drier now.

.35 overnight 4.08 so far in August.

I would speculate - the PDO starting to rise in Sept and continuing to rise at a decent clip in Oct./Nov. A weaker early season PV accompanied by a general cycle trend down with the AO all through the Fall. Above normal North American Snow extent through Sept to Dec. Signs that might indicate -NAO during the winter, I defer to Chuck on this one Watch the East based Nino regions, could overwhelm all 3 above items.

What a complex off the NC coast. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 I am still expecting some sun in the next couple hours in my area.

Maybe we get some sun later based on the visible in the Eastern areas, after that multiple nice days with low dew points.

Cool

Special Marine Warning ANZ630-650-652-680-682-210200- /O.NEW.KAKQ.MA.W.0197.260821T0036Z-260821T0200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 836 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA... Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 NM... Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 NM... Waters from Chincoteague VA to Parramore Island VA from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chintoteague VA from 20 to 60 NM... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 835 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts to 40 knots and waterspouts were located along a line extending from 8 nm northwest of Delaware Lightship Buoy 44009 to 11 nm northwest of Chincoteague Bay, moving southeast at 20 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots and waterspouts. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. * Locations impacted include... Assawoman Bay, Ocean City Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Chicken Bone, Parking Lot, Assateague Beach, Blackfish Reef, Gulf Rambler Wreck, Ocean City Pier, 10 Nm East Of Ocean City Inlet, Jackspot Reef, Chincoteague, 10 Nm Se Fenwick Island, Bone Wreck, African Queen Wreck, and Fenwick Island. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southeastern Maryland. Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && LAT...LON 3846 7504 3818 7418 3751 7516 3782 7558 3788 7557 3789 7561 3784 7562 3795 7577 3801 7570 3796 7559 3790 7560 3793 7551 3797 7552 3814 7533 3826 7530 3827 7524 3833 7520 3839 7523 3845 7515 TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 310DEG 19KT 3854 7486 3811 7553 WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.00IN WIND...40KTS $$ BROWN

I just hope the PV is on the weaker side during its formation, as it is beginning to develop right about now. Thinking HL blocking will help us this winter.

.80 here today.

Dover has missed rain for months on end, but today they are the epicenter of severe.

Bad timing. I can't load the radar or anything really.

Dover DE Tornado warning

Is Mount Holly's website down ? https://www.weather.gov/phi/ I really hope not, but I can't get it to load.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 302 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 MDC029-035-201915- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-260820T1915Z/ Queen Anne`s MD-Kent MD- 302 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL QUEEN ANNE`S AND CENTRAL KENT COUNTIES... At 301 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Chestertown, or 9 miles north of Centerville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Chestertown, Church Hill, Starkey Corner, Morgnec, Old Town, and Kingstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3923 7613 3929 7600 3910 7596 3911 7611 TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 255DEG 18KT 3918 7607 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ Staarmann

A refresher on the way.

Sneaky shower complex caught even me off guard, looked at the radar and it was coming in from the West . I don't believe this was in the forecast I hope I get surprised by a few snow squalls duing the winter.

Matches the WPC forecast almost perfectly

Honestly I know you have suffered down with rainfall, but it does seem the rainfall pattern is more active, and maybe the Nino is showing some effect despite it only being mid August. Of course just speculation on my part.

Another Flood Watch, been the summer of flood watches and brown patch. I bet they expand the Flood Watch SW later today. Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>022-025>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-200900- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0008.260820T1600Z-260821T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Camden, Flemington, Oxford, West Chester, Pennsville, Trenton, Perkasie, Wilmington, Collegeville, Doylestown, Lansdale, New Brunswick, Kennett Square, Media, Sandy Hook, Chalfont, Atlantic City, Pottstown, Philadelphia, Norristown, Morrisville, Wharton State Forest, Cherry Hill, Hammonton, Honey Brook, Moorestown, Long Beach Island, Somerville, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Glassboro, and Freehold 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas, Atlantic, Camden, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington and Western Monmouth, and southeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area beginning Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches which could cause flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DeSilva

Hmm, forecast looks like a Nino, and it feels like a Nino out there. oday Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tonight Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Calm wind. Thursday A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 86. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Partly cloudy,

Heaviest rains have shifted SE in the 7 day from the WPC