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Speculation could be because of the weak Enso state we remain in a rather volatile and variable pattern the duration of the winter. Speculation, of course, but until a certain pattern driver takes hold and is able to provide a repetitive pattern ( feedback loop, etc ) maybe it is more of the same. Hard to say right now. Will the driver be blocking in AO domain that goes negative for a period of 30 to 45 days, will the MJO become more prominent and work in our favor, aka the Webb progression, or will it be more of the same. Interesting times ahead.

The general idea that run to run model changes would be frequent, and at times significant, is really holding true so far. I would not want to issue a 30 day forecast because the swings in modeling are really extreme. I really feel many mets are even at a loss. Of note, the same theme the last two weeks, pretty subtle yet significant changes on the modeling, ie. the -NAM state for example. Overall trends up top in the last 72 hours are not very good as you know. A lack of cooperation in the drivers at play, maybe the seasonal models had a clue, although that determination is still yet to be determined. I really don't like the looks of the TPV and its location out in fantasy land. Unfortunately I believe the progression to a more conducive winter pattern that can reload and has real snow potential will have to wait possibly, although there is a window as the PNA goes + near days 8 to 12. Funny thing is with the reasoning of the two camps , as we discussed before, one warmer less snow and then the other more seasonal and maybe snow potential, well the momentum seems to change with the modeling. There have been some set backs in terms of real threat window, and so far Philly and the surrounding areas have had multiple low end snow events, but every one has under-performed. Certainly not a positive trend, even HM admits to the trace phenomenon. Another thing I was looking for was the occurrence of a "significant "snow event prior to December 15th to aid in providing some support for an above seasonal snowfall potential. These may or may not be clues as well as to the future. Another observation from the NE forum, from Tip. He mentioned how cold air was not holding on and was surprised how certain events up North trended warmer. Sounds like our area right, LOL . He posted that he felt we needed to establish deep cold air source with a -EPO and then intervals of + PNA. ( Of note on or near Jan 2nd to the 4 th we do enter a forecasted period of + PNA. ) I like to see what happens then. Wondering if the best pattern does go down in the second part of the winter. There are several analogs/outlooks that support that idea, along with a few Nino winters starting after Jan 15th in terms of snowfall and colder outcomes. Whether they prove useful in this day and age and background state , hard to say. Things are still progressing in terms of forcing and continued developments up top. Bottom line, very hard pattern to predict and just enjoy the holiday season and treasure those in your life Very bottom a post by Don S courtesy 33andrain - my take away (I think we all know this , but ) from it is the importance of a - AO and a + PNA. Those are your clues to Jan to March IMHO. Some interesting posts below regarding the IOD and the HL. From Don S courtesy 33andrain Dreams of a white Christmas for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will have to wait for at least another year. Milder air is now pushing into the region and will likely predominate through the much or all of the remaining days of December. Through December 21, snowfall amounts for select cities include: Allentown: 2.1" (1.6" below normal) Atlantic City: 0.5" (2.1" below normal) Boston: 11.5" (4.9" above normal) Bridgeport: 5.5" (1.9" above normal) Harrisburg: 0.2" (3.5" below normal) Hartford: 21.1" (14.8" above normal) Islip: 4.3" (1.7" above normal) New York City: 2.5" (0.5" below normal) Newark: 4.2" (0.7" above normal) Philadelphia: 0.1" (2.1" below normal) Providence: 8.0" (1.0" above normal) Worcester: 25.3" (13.5" above normal) Despite the warmth, which could take monthly departures toward and perhaps even above normal across many parts of the region, dreams of a snowy January persist. Perhaps a key to whether those dreams are realized will be the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. Since 1950, 52 snowstorms brought 6" or more snow to at least one of the following cities: Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia. 60% of those storms had an AO-, 64% had a PNA+, and 38% had an AO-/PNA+. From among the 18 storms that brought 6" or more snow to at least two of those cities, 83% occurred with an AO-, 83% occurred with a PNA+, and 67% had an AO-/PNA+. From among the 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to all three of those cities, 91% occurred with an AO-, 91% occurred with a PNA+, and 82% had an AO-/PNA+.

To go with the above from @Bob Chill this is a another fascinating animation regarding the NW Atlantic, Check out the second image loop from Anthony.

Another kudo to HM for stating this upcoming period would bring model uncertainty along with significant run over run changes. Having the EPS, CFS, GEFS, analogs etc all pointing in the same direction for once is a huge morale booster.

I would speculate these storms off the NE coast continue to possibly add wave breaks to the NW Atlantic reinforcing the good vibes there while various S/W traverse under the block way out in fantasy land. Maybe the EPS will show this.

Bob, would you say when you look at Canada and the HL the progression resembles the GEFS for this time period. To me it looks close in certain areas.

I love the animation, pretty cool to see things reverse/ retrograde.

I know you touched on this already, to a degree, but do you have specific research that shows in this semi-new climate era from say 2010, that when November is winter-like then the winter attempts to mirror that outcome in the following March as well ? If anything, it seems winter starts later, taken into account the November head fake and then lingers longer. The linger longer part I imagine has to do with delayed seasonal blocking and any related lag effects from possible PV weakening. Last March many thought it was going to deliver, but it really didn't to the full potential some said it would, but oh boy April was cold. The year before was an epic March I even think the maturing of the event was responsible for the less hot June and July, relatively speaking. Thanks

On another forum one met claimed the GFS should not even be used. Stated that by incorporating the GFS into your forecast for your clients it reduces your overall performance and accuracy. I know yesterday I posted about verification against the Euro, but when I read that comment I was surprised. Seems the general idea is the GFS is extremely cold biased, reacts slowly to changes and when you have time periods such as this where we are transitioning between seasons it does badly.

Looks great. I will have to take a pic of mine to share. All in all I am very happy with the way the front lawn looks. The two most challenging things for me was the aeration and watering when it was 94 degrees out. Your new fire pit and grass complement one another !

Better late than never. This is interesting as well image of above for Sept 2019

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.

Never heard of it - so I had to look it up....... fascinating read here volitile oils reacting with sunlight. Feel better . https://web.extension.illinois.edu/cfiv/homeowners/090611.html

I might look into that as well, thanks.

Thanks, that is a great point ! I read crab grass sends out some sort of phenol that makes the grass around it not grow as much, but so far crab grass is under control here, with the pre-emergent I but down. Seems my biggest issue this year with the lawn will once again be lawn fungus because of this dew point at night deal. Will reseed in the Fall. but all in all I am happy so far to still have green grass on July 6 th.

Many cucumbers this morning in the garden, wow, I guess the rain maybe, birds after tomatoes though, so I purchased a bird netting because the ribbons and aluminum squares flying in the breeze is not really working at keeping all the various birds away. Its always something ! Yum, your sald sounds great ! My wifes fav are the cherry tomatoes !!! She told me if the birds eat them I am in the dog house . LOL ( more like sweat house ) !

Some folks scalp the grass when they cut it , and wonder why it browns and causes stress on the lawn. I always cut on the highest settings.

Same here, eggplants finally getting bigger with a few flowers. All in all, so far, so good.

Grass has gone brown, who knows how long it will last, except to say it looks dry for a while. Tonight's storms be a drop in the bucket. This time of year the sun can wipe out soil moisture in minutes. Meanwhile, all the straw is out of stock in my area, wanted to add more to the garden, now have to wait. And, for the Crepe Myrtle may try neem oil. I really don't want to use anything on it, but at this rate all the buds will be gone, I hate Japanese bettles.

I read we are nowhere near the low point of the still progressing solar minimum.

@bluewave Do you feel the general warmth and especially the warmth in the recent fall months, Sept and October mostly, has been associated with the above average SST off the East Coast and the nature of the WAR. A sort of feedback taking place possibly which also plays a role in moisture transport up along the East Coast and warmer over night lows via higher dews. Any thoughts? Thanks !

Just got back from taking a walk with the dog in this wonderful weather, love it ! Measured about 3.25 inches here so far with very light snow still falling.

What, if any consequences does this have for high lattitide blocking in October and even beyond, in and around this region ? Also, recently looking at the SST changes in the Gulf Of Alaska they are rising . Would any of this warmth cause and or re-inforce a + PDO in developing in the month(s) ahead.

I have a question in the lawn thread second one to the bottom, can you check it out and tell me what you think please > It's about grass and watering , Thanks !

Very nice, I like ! !