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Not JB, and I lost respect for JB about 12 years ago. If I were a met who had to issue a seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter I be rather nervous about it. With the way things are going lately globally in terms of weather patterns and extreme events, I think it is almost impossible to get it right.

Hearing some private mets talking about an early start to winter this year. I am not sure what that is based on. Last year ( early and mid winter winter ) proved even the best seasonal models, plus weekly models, all failed to deliver even close to what actually happened in terms of sensible weather. Consensus proved to be of no value.

Prety impressive . https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record Water pools on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet during its biggest daylong melt event on record, 1 August 2019. Credit: Caspar Haarløv/Into the Ice via AP By Jenessa Duncombe 17 hours ago The Greenland ice sheet broke records on 1 August 2019 by losing more water volume in 1 day than on than any other day since records began in 1950, shedding 12.5 billion tons of water into the sea. The record-breaking day came during a weeklong extreme melt event hitting Greenland due to soaring temperatures and low snow accumulation over the winter. The warmer temperatures are part of a heat wave that scorched Europe in late July, setting records in several countries including Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The extreme melting liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water. Air temperatures rose to 10°C above average in places in Greenland this week and peaked above the freezing point for hours at a time at the ice sheet’s summit more than 3,200 meters above sea level. The months of April, May, June, and July also had higher than average temperatures in Greenland. The volume of water melted per day on the ice sheet this week has increased as temperatures have climbed. The extreme melting on 1 August liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water, accounting for 12.5 gigatons of water. The latest findings come from observations and model calculations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.

The WAR is really pushed aside on the EPS later next week. Wonder whether the signal for the warmer second half of August/early September comes after the trough shifts away from the East Coast . Certainly seems the frequency of excessive rainfall has been coming dow a bit recently. Wondering if it is now too late to build extreme, long lasting heat as we are passing the climo peak heat period and the days continue to shorten. However, the warmth of the Atlantic is impresssive. Will be interesting to see how long the duration of the Northeast trough remains once it sets up.

I will look into it @showmethesnowand let you know if I find a good answer.

As you know, we can live here with a good Pac and a not so good Atlantic. The very best Pac patterns can really produce for us here and be cold as well. The pattern over the NW North America and the PAc seems to have increaed the SSTs in the PDO region. We allknow better then to assume that will last. Even a stout + PDO in Novermber can be reversed quickly with the right weather pattern over the NE Pac.

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice

Not sure where to post this, but looks like a nice cool period may be arriving later next week, associated with the steep decline in the NAO combined with the NW Pac ridge. EPS is very robust, not to mention the wave 6/7 NH global pattern at that time.

@bluewave I thought that the correlation to NAO blocking in the summer months was warmer along the East Coast? I see Don S mentionuing this , but maybe it is more so the -AO he is referring to. Is this event forecasted to happen based simply on the extreme drop in the NAO ? The EPS is rather bullish for cooler weather as you mentioned later next week. Looks like this -NAO dive is a consequence from the heat displaced from the recent all time records certain sections of Europe. I believe Judah Cohen posted on that .

Some interesting possibilities ahead.....

Very frustrated. Just got back frm a day trip the beach and returning home expecting at least some rain, as my area was under a flash flood watch and a severe thunderstorm watch. Nothing at all. Third time this summer under a FFW and zero precip. ( at least up to this time of posting ) All the action well to my South and East.

For those beach goers heads up to possible rip currents. There has been a pesky and eratic long period swell. Nothing too crazy, but heard there were several rescues the past several days. From mount holly RIP CURRENTS... The rip current forecast today is similar to yesterday and will be dependent on the swell period. The swell period has been varying between 5-15 seconds the last couple of days. When the longer period takes over, the swell is only 1-2 feet, but when the period is shorter, the swell is higher at 2-3 feet. With the variable conditions, we will have a moderate risk for dangerous rip current formation today.

Crazy thimes are these. What this means as signs to the NH I have no idea, but a very impressive event event down there.

Goes to show you how hard the NAO is to predict, no one really knows, including the models and even the impressive EPS.

To follow up on the -NAO I took this image from the NY City forum, again courtesy of bluewave, where I asked him a question about the changing cold pool and how it has warmed. This really shows the dramatic change in the Atlantic SSTs over the past couple months. Also, look to the Pac and the Gulf of Alaska, as you know Alaska has been seeing incredible warmth. maybe lead to a +PDO. This is only a anomaly map, but still very interesting. I recall reading or hearing, a very warm Atlantic in October and November can act like a magnet drawing cold to its source region off of the North Amercian continet later in October and early November. Don't hold me to that as I believe I read it years ago. And, these so called changes can occur on the flip of switch. Similiar to last year.

Today's guidance even deeper with the -NAO coming up. On on the flip side, this has caused a significant increase in the SST up North. (chart courtesy of bluewave )

Should be illegal to even commnet on the weeklies once we get to close winter. Sorry, did I say weeklies, I mean the weaklings ...

Where is Chuck ? If the cycle of the NAO goes according to plan we will bake next winter with a super strong WAR. Just kidding, but the remarkable continuation of NAO blocking continues, as it means nothing now for cooler, actually in later summer it is associated with warmer weather here. But when it flips it will last for many months.

Borrowed from bluewave's posting ..... interesting that his area, and ours, are the warmest across the country. Of note to me is the cold pool and the cooler temps far to the NE and the warmth near us from NYC to Eastern NC, associated possibly with the warm Atlantic SSTs.

Never heard of it - so I had to look it up....... fascinating read here volitile oils reacting with sunlight. Feel better . https://web.extension.illinois.edu/cfiv/homeowners/090611.html

There is a silver lining in all scenarios, but when I just looked at the 30 day rainfall map, wow, to the striking totals from feast to famine. I have been very lucky. Some areas are so dry. From BWI NE and NW near Mappy land have big time totals, Philly big and other areas to the West and SW and South are very dry. Some areas that are dry are like micro areas, not very large but still much drier than the areas around them. The bottom line is that totals across the forum are not uniform.

Figures about the coupling I think in the early winter we lacked coupling, and had the long duration + SOI for weeks on end

Use with caution........

From Don S. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.