frd

The decline continues

I too am interested as to how well it does in the cold season coming up.

Flash flood watches are just a bad omen this year..... the 5 th busted forecast in the last 4 months ...... I love Mount Holly and they have done great forecasting most times, but when I see a FFW anymore I still water the garden. Very dissapointed.

I remember like yesterday the great WPVI tv 6 weatherman Jim O'Brien talking about this event ..... was a biggie indeed , not sure if this was one that stalled and or did a looped , but the satelite images were classic even for way back then.

Some of the many cars that found themselves almost totally buried by the Blizzard of ‘79. (Baltimore Sun files, Feb. 20, 1979) They were only calling for 8 inches. We ended up with nearly two feet.The snow began falling the night of Feb. 18, 1979, and while it was coming down steadily, forecasters didn’t seem unduly alarmed. The National Weather Service predicted 6 inches of snow in Baltimore, up to 8 inches south and west of the Beltway. Brutal, to be sure, but not spectacularly bad.In fact, the bigger concern was the distressingly frigid temperatures. The mercury dipped to 3 degrees at BWI Airport on the 18th, at least the sixth February day on which a record low was set. The low temperature was a balmy 7 degrees in the city, matching a low that had been set in 1903.On man, was it cold. But at least the snow seemed destined to stay within reason.Hah! “22-inch snowstorm buries area” read the headline in the Feb. 20 Baltimore Sun. Schools and businesses were closed, some 80 percent of the city’s bus fleet was stuck on side streets or in snow drifts. Mayor William Donald Schaefer declared a 7 p.m. curfew and the national guard was called in to help maintain order. For the first time “in anyone’s memory,” the Evening Sun, which had been founded in 1910, was not published on Feb. 19.At the state police barracks in Waterloo, troopers pooled their money to buy insulin and needles for a family trapped in their Anne Arundel County home and “commandeered” a snowplow to help deliver the supplies.“You must be crazy to be out here,” one city man shouted as he tried making his way through the snow.No one disagreed.

Good points here by Todd More I didn't say I don't think we'll have blocking this winter, just that the summer-winter correlation is non-existent

Good thread in this link

Maybe 02 - 03 During the 1960's there were some good winters with blocking , but not sure about the Pac during that decade.

1993 being talked about by some mets as a upcoming analog . And no, not JB. I dont follow JB anymore .

Well, the stronger Nino events are less wishy washy and are easier to forecast in the long range . Weaker events are more prone to less accurate forecasts due to the Nino event possibly weakening in the heart of winter. ( even though some will tell you there is a lag effect and a weakening may not mean much. I disagree with that line of thinking ) When you ask most here in the forum the type/strength of Nino is key to the likelyhood of above normal winter snowfall. Weaker Nino events are not that great. Stronger Ninos raise the bar and can yield bigger exceptional snowfall events. Moderate Nino seem to be the best indicator of the potential for above normal climo snowfall in the Mid Atlantic , or to be even more specific maybe moderate to strong and West Based. I believe Matt and Ian once stated you roll the dice with a Strong Nino, but that can support MECS and even HECS . You could get 75 % of more of a season's snowfall from that type of event. Example the 30 inch snowfall in the winter of 2016 in a otherwise pathetic snowfall season in this area.

You have some interesting options on the table.... Do we have a positive PDO. Does it last into the winter .... What are the consequences of the dramatic sea ice melting and recent summer of warm season blocking ..... do we get the winter -NAO Does the Nino persists ( granted some have stated it is gone already others argue the fact ) and where do we get the tropical forcing this winter ..... Does NH blocking flourish in the winter with a back drop of neurtral Pac SSTs What will be the effect of the continued qiuet sun and the continuation of the solar decline as we eventually hit the bottom of the solar minimum..... Some feel based on the Pac SST and SSTs in the NH in general indicate a 1993 Brr...... winter. What about moisture then, without a Nino would it be dry? Or do we go to a stormy winter with frequent snows based on an active storm tracks and coastals ? A lot to consider as we look towards the winter. Bottom line be very careful and never trust the seasonals. Even analogs may not be as effective as we are in a changing climate here, and what worked as a analog in the 1960s probaly would not work today.

Even recently, I think last month, we once again set a new record for the Pac jet. Not sure when it will calm down.

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus Pioneer model you get a D minus I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " . As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

You could simply consider this September may turn out a little different than last September

Missed the best part of the line by a few miles, not much rain only .25 , some areas 1 to 2 inches Looking at the storm total seems like a repeating theme over the summer so far. Feast or famine

Hmm, well the Pac state was interesting that Fall and Winter , and certainly the QBO was not an issue when the winter produced some noteworthy snowfalls. I recall several surprise snowfalls as well along the coastal plain. ( near the beaches of Ocean City, MD. and Fenwick , DE for example. It just wanted to snow that winter. Whether the Pacific base state combined with the low solar background and worked in tandem, not sure. Now as to the 1995 hurrican season and using that as a analog way too early to say, as 1995 was an active year.base chage with the NAo You have to ponder whether we are entering a base state change regarding the NAO, if so, it could be interesting if it persists into the winter. 1995 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and activity in 1995 began on the next day with the formation of Hurricane Allison on June 2. It was a well-above average season in which 21 tropical depressions formed, 19 of which attained tropical storm status, and 11 of these attained hurricanestatus. A quick look at the winter of 1995-96 Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain.

Went out with the dog this AM and got hit with a few "dew" drops from the deck umbrella. :-) But yeah its dry. But on the flip side, seems the lessening rainfall has slowed down my grass fungus.

This will be nice, more so lower dews

I read from a decent science based site that the min can occur anywhere from July 2019 to March 2020. Not sure the QBO will be in the same phase as late 09 and 10. I think that period was East and this year may be West? A lot to consider, not just one element, but still very fascinating to see what happens as we enter the Fall.

Euro seasonals are trash but OK ........ still waiting on cold and snow....... sorry Maue I disagree on any value from these forecasts

Not saying what happens in mid August has any effect on the month of September as a whole but this is to a degree opposite last August when it was so warm and dew points super high. Looks like some changes in the Pacific too taking place. Even the Nino is still alive.

Not JB, and I lost respect for JB about 12 years ago. If I were a met who had to issue a seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter I be rather nervous about it. With the way things are going lately globally in terms of weather patterns and extreme events, I think it is almost impossible to get it right.

Hearing some private mets talking about an early start to winter this year. I am not sure what that is based on. Last year ( early and mid winter winter ) proved even the best seasonal models, plus weekly models, all failed to deliver even close to what actually happened in terms of sensible weather. Consensus proved to be of no value.

Prety impressive . https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record Water pools on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet during its biggest daylong melt event on record, 1 August 2019. Credit: Caspar Haarløv/Into the Ice via AP By Jenessa Duncombe 17 hours ago The Greenland ice sheet broke records on 1 August 2019 by losing more water volume in 1 day than on than any other day since records began in 1950, shedding 12.5 billion tons of water into the sea. The record-breaking day came during a weeklong extreme melt event hitting Greenland due to soaring temperatures and low snow accumulation over the winter. The warmer temperatures are part of a heat wave that scorched Europe in late July, setting records in several countries including Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The extreme melting liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water. Air temperatures rose to 10°C above average in places in Greenland this week and peaked above the freezing point for hours at a time at the ice sheet’s summit more than 3,200 meters above sea level. The months of April, May, June, and July also had higher than average temperatures in Greenland. The volume of water melted per day on the ice sheet this week has increased as temperatures have climbed. The extreme melting on 1 August liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water, accounting for 12.5 gigatons of water. The latest findings come from observations and model calculations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.

The WAR is really pushed aside on the EPS later next week. Wonder whether the signal for the warmer second half of August/early September comes after the trough shifts away from the East Coast . Certainly seems the frequency of excessive rainfall has been coming dow a bit recently. Wondering if it is now too late to build extreme, long lasting heat as we are passing the climo peak heat period and the days continue to shorten. However, the warmth of the Atlantic is impresssive. Will be interesting to see how long the duration of the Northeast trough remains once it sets up.