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Granted the seasonal models, Glosea included, all have what appears to be a + NAO. Not as robust as last winter, but I place little faith in long range and medium range NAO domain outlooks. All about timing, etc. I look forward Tom's NAO outlook. I enjoy your insights as well.

Sample size is small and we would require a - NAO , especially in our region here for any hopes of significant snowfall. But, the idea of a poleward High during the winter and even extending into the EPO regions has been mentioned by a few pros and mets. Of course, as you know, being in a Nina combined with the location of the Northern Mid Atlantic will take some divine intervention for significant snowfall opportunities.

Will be interesting to track this, as well as the reliability of the model forecast. Many previous seasons have had poor forecasts focused on certain indices, ( NAO, AO, EPO, etc. ) including given biases. That is a very significant drop.

Great post by @bluewave this morning, I wanted to share it here. As mentioned in the post here, a very small sample size indeed, but still worth following to see what transpires with the Western Ridge during the month of October. I wonder if we enter a feedback loop and how the evolving Nina will effect long term Western ridging later in the year. Here is bluewaves's post: < The sample size for La Niña Octobers with a Western Ridge and Eastern Trough is very small. So we will have to see if the strong ridge to start the month persists like it has in September. There was only 1 La Niña year since 1950 with a pattern like this. It was October 1988. The dominant Pacific feature that winter was that the NEPAC ridge extended north into Alaska. Main problem for us in 88-89 was the very strong +NAO. 08-09 had an almost identical Pacific La Niña pattern with a better Atlantic and more snowfall. So maybe a strong ridge out West in October would be hinting that the Pacific Ridge will extend into Alaska.This would be unlike the last 2 winters with the flat La Niña Ridge North of Hawaii. But we would have to wait and see how the NAO evolves . Still too early to know if any of this pans out. Just something to think about. >

@CAPE Interesting

Speculation on my part that maybe the pattern is possibly showing a tendency for a different outcome at times during the winter regarding the North Pac ridge and Western ridging. Again not sure how things evolve as we get deeper into the Fall season. It seems the last 3 years were all November and EARLY December head fakes, as the real winter pattern did not take hold until post December 20th.

We are getting our winter now and in early October. By the way, Western fires are not the only location in the NH spewing aerosol and other elements into the atmosphere.

The Euro has not been that great recently, and I hate the weeklies ( flip flops and all ), but there is a general consensus for a possible average to below average October in these parts.

Not saying there is a correlation, someone needs to confirm, but the Northern Atlantic is crazy and wondering about wave breaking as the NAO is set to tank on some modeling and the AO is a going down too . Teddy producing some crazy winds and waves as well. Also, of interest , is the changing SST anomaly near the East Coast from the constant stream of swells and upwelling the past several weeks produced by the recent offshore hurricanes.

After the cold shot mentioned above, maybe a Gulf Hurricane.

I could be mistaken, but I believe he was attempting to match the progression that could be possible this late fall and the upcoming winter . Granted it was a feeble Nino last winter, but I believe that was his goal. Future QBO numbers will be very interesting as we move deeper into the Fall season. Are you looking at where the IO forcing set ups later this month, and in October, for any winter clues? I ask because bluewave posted a week or so back that depending where the forcing sets up, it has a role in the upcoming winter's temperatures and I imagine the background state. I have to go back and locate it . Well worth the read. I found it , here you go : < We would need to see all that IO forcing shift east toward the Maritime Continent in October. The big amped up MJO 5 in October 2017 came before the snowy La Niña 17-18 winter. The strong IO MJO 1 in October 2011 preceded the 11-12 La Niña winter. There is some research that early IO forcing can excite the PV like we saw last winter. >

@CAPE remember what we learned the last two years........ no matter the perceived clue and no matter the head fake , especially good ones that might entice your positive winter vibes, don't be fooled! Ha ha...... I know you know this, but here we go again. And we are talking it is September 22 nd. How things evolve remain uncertain. Saw this last year in October and especially that November period, when postings here commented and reflected that maybe we would get - AO periods and HL blocking, even though the NAO look was not that great.

OMG...... To me, Ryan has an agenda. He has morphed into posting some crazy stuff the last several months on Twitter.

I assume you are referring to " I take credit where I shouldn't Judah Cohen " ? His part of the message here was attached as a reply to Simmon , however, Simmon Lee is rather sensible and much more proficient than Judah. Simmon knows his stuff.

@WinterWxLuvr to possible improve your perceptions, away from the PNA and looking for at least some positives for the upcoming winter I give you this ( below ) . Like to see this November, but I will take what I can given the latest climate model outlooks for the upcoming winter. Posting this here, versus the winter thread, because it is happening now and also to go along with your comment about the PNA.

I share your sentiment, but hopefully the winter outcome will at least go our way some of the times.

I have followed the PNA, EPO, NAO and AO for decades, but this is one crazy drop and rebound for the PNA. If true, expect some interesting weather.

This recent cool to cold period in our area is even more impressive when you consider it bucks the trend of the last 10 years, and also counters what in our area is the month with the most warming compared to normal during the past 30 years. Indeed, as mentioned before, the warm Atlantic has extended the summer well into October many times here recently. Many locations have set record highs late in the warm season on the periphery of the warm Western Atlantic waters/ WAR .

Any comment regarding the IOD being totally opposite last year ? Long range models seem to indicate it goes more so negative as the year ends. Nothing like last year with the extreme positive values in December and continuing into Jan.

Been watching the satellite animation and it is making progress my way. Just took my Greyhound for a mid day walk, very breezy and cooler. I admit, I do miss the blue sky look, has been a week with only haze, smoke or simply cloudy. Have a great weekend mappy !

We have new records.

I believe Ninas may tend to have colder Decembers versus Jan. and Feb. Means nothing, and I am not endorsing a cold December at this point. However, exposed waters above Alasaka and general SST forcing way up North may have a role in our sensible early winter weather before the most powerful and direct pattern weather drivers take hold for the East.

Does make sense. The exact location of anomalies and how strong in mid to late Fall will be very important in attempting a December forecast.

Yummy.... the Holly Grail

BAMWX put together a very detailed and research based presentation rich with relevant data and analogs for the winter outlook of 19-20. The presentation was over 30 minutes long, given in November of 2019 for the winter of 19-20. Guess what, they blew it, they had to back pedal until stating they were wrong. They were very confident in a cold winter. Going too cold and too snowy overall. Of course they spin it, by stating they adjusted their winter forecast to counter their early seasonal forecast. In my opinion, that is still a fail. No one really knows what is going to happen. After two years of incredible busts regarding winter outlooks by everyone, the bottom line is that you should never put faith in a winter seasonal forecast that depends on cold air intrusions. It is a different climate now, with new evolving drivers on a global scale. You can even share the insights and opinion of tip over in the New England forum, whom states that regardless of Nina or Nino it does not matter at all, because a small area of the Pacific cannot counter the global warmth and the corresponding accelerating global warmth drivers.