frd

As stated several days ago, expect rather impressive changes day to day with the modeling beyond day 5 .

This morning I ran out of time to check, but I believe compared to December this time last year the 30 and 90 SOI day values are much better. Plus, last year at this time were were running numerous positives with the SOI and the MJO went whacky with the high amp warm phases, don't see that this year. Which as you know, is a huge plus, and I agree with your reasoning for an improved Pac in the LR. Speculation of course, but once we achieve that better Pac look it may hang around for a while, even if it does take a a bit longer to arrive on the scene. This may hinge on the weakening of the IOD and a quicker fading of the residual atmospheric effects. I am hopeful for this to happen.

This is a period where the indices are a bit more favorable, so there may be some support for some type of event.

@showmethesnow you have any background with the QBO ? Looking at over some data this morning and attempting to figure when the real benefits actually start to get into the pattern for us. Some research shows it might not be until Feb. depending upon what you level you look at. However, I read the actual shear between levels is just as important. Imagine the possibilities if we can get some help from the QBO re blocking and combine that with a weakened + IOD along with diminishing lag effects for the second half of the winter.

I have been harping on this for over a year, and it continues, another record as well. The Pac hyper jet. And, this is in a backdrop where we have been rather lucky in this region as most of the country has been above normal temp-wise through the 12 th. I would bet if improvements in the Pac evolve, including some +PNA support, a moderate snow event is soon in the cards for us. The Pac jet is too difficult to be modeled correctly at times, add to this the MJO progression and other associated variables, plus standing wave and it is a complex mess. from a met , purduewx80 on the NYC forum: << Speaking of the raging Pacific jet - Boise, ID set a new 250mb wind speed record today - 173KT at 12Z vs. the previous record of 169KT. Records there go back to 1948.

HM really thinks deep arctic air will return when the West Pac re-sets. The re-set will assist in the EPO and WPO regions, says the worse is yet to come. I say Bring it !!! I would love to see a -WPO and a -EPO.

Several, if not more , very interesting solutions with what looks like impressive wrap around snows and deepening lows, some tracking South of us too. Not a bad run. But like you said Bob, so much is still a question mark about this period.

Exactly, back in the days of AOL dial up.....

@C.A.P.E. don't look at this afternoon's Euro Control for your area late this month I call it the frd/CAPE special

I think his area is NYC. I recall him from Eastern back in the days

We do better in March. I bet running the numbers it is remarkable how much more snow in this area the last 10 years during March versus December. Nothing new there, source regions still very cold, Atlantic SSTs colder, etc.

Not sure how relevant, and to what latitude this might be targeted to , ie. DC , Philly or even NYC., but I read that despite having a -AO in December, along with a -NAO the most important indice to have in your favor during December for increased snowfall odds is a +PNA. I am beginning to believe that. You don't need the +PNA as much in J, F and M The +PNA does seem more important in reality versus the -NAO/ Davis Straits block during December. Now for the records, a MECS in December in the Northern Mid Atlantic, yes, you need both. A lot of what I said here is from reading all the great posts and stats form Don S. Love his stuff ! So next time you see a Greenland block you still need to check the Pac. I know you know all this, LOL, but some folks may not understand the importance of the Pac , especially this early in the season and for our hood especially . Caveat mention here: as @psuhoffman stated, having this blocking in December may indeed be a positive sign for later in the season. Especially seeing the NAO blocking a couple times so far.

@Bob Chill The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period. Awesome pattern cancel. Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. . However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow.

Yes, totally agree. And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things. We shall know soon enough.

If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion. It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days, so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips. We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility.

Bob, I was feeling better about the next 2 weeks yesterday and the day before. My downfall was actually thinking we break from the hostile Pac pattern. Well known is the fact the Pac jet has set records for blasting onshore here in the states, and even up into Alaska, ruins the ridge axis out West. The Pac jet, which has been a detriment for us in terms of snowfall since last winter, will continue to be be a killer for us until we see a reshuffle out in the far West Pac. If that does not happen real snow events are simply modeled in error. Have you also noticed there is nothing to anchor in the cold. Cold air not hanging tough. Even a perfect pattern ends in rain.

I know you know this. Run over run consistency does not correlate to eventual high model verification in the extended. ( At least if you desire snow in our area ) I have seem the old and new GFS have a SECS modeled for many runs in a row, I believe once it was 3 days in a row or 12 runs, maybe even longer than that , and as you guessed, finally the GFS did cave to the no snow Euro solution. No high praises for the Euro intended, because that model has landed flat on its face as well from time to time.

BAMWX is stating skill scores right now in days 11 to 15 are at 10 %. Good luck everyone, deep freeze or torch and yeah your covered. Also hearing things along the lines that models are individually biasing the MJO phases. I was not aware of that possibility, or how that plays into the model outcomes. For example GFS phases 8 and 1 , Euro phases 3 , 4 and 5 but muted. I hope we do get the West Pac changes soon and there is not a significant lag form the weakening IOD state.

If it was not for the wild swings in the EPS along with the antics and cold bias of the GFS I would be a little excited. Still a ways to go, however, a lot better than some Decembers in these parts. Thanks for the updates !

Wonder if the continuous, and annoying, fast Pac jet screws up the period near 12/19 to 12/22. Bluewave made a good point about the Pac jet effecting the ridge axis out West. Might be difficult to achieve the proper ridge axis unless things change up a bit. Not sure the block/ - NAO alone is enough. The ramped up Pac jet was one big concern last winter. from bluewave: <<<< The EPS has a low coming through the Great Lakes with cold high pressure behind it. Ridge axis would be too far east for a major storm. May be tough to back that ridge far enough west with such a fast Pacific Jet. >>>>>>

I thought the latest figure was + 5.09 or close to it . Might be mistaken

YESSSSS

With the way the EPS has been changing tunes at longer leads, I would think it is fair to assume additional changes are coming up. HM alluded to the period now, as well as others, as having an extremely high degree of difficulty to forecast. I know some will state when a strong block is established forecasting verification might go up, but based on all the factors at play I don't think we are there yet. Many things are still in flux, both in the Pac and the Atlantic side, and even the HL. Not boring in the least.

OMG, this is crazy. Incredible 6 hour temp drops just for the fun of it ! My hood goes from 46 to 12 in 6 hours, a 34 degree drop, LOL Some locals experience even greater drops . CLICK FOR ANIMATION

Get ready, getting closer