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interesting post from bluewave here it is worth a mention ..... <<<< 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the more active MJO is shifting us back to a warmer pattern for the rest of September. Much more Niña-like pattern with the big ridge building north of Hawaii. So we are shifting away from the big Canadian high pattern that has dominated since August. Going forward we have to monitor the ridging north of Hawaii. That was one of the factors that spoiled last winter. If this ridge becomes more established north of Hawaii, then that record warm SST blob could shift west with it. Probably too early to know for winter. But just something to monitor going forward. >>>>>

Seems the pattern near Alaska and in the GOA favor that warm blob growing even warmer between now and early October . A very complex Pac as you pointed out.

@bluewave do you see anything out in the long range to change things up in terms of rainfall. And , what do you make of the recent pretty significant drop again in the SOI index.

If you believe his hype and so-called proof it really doesn't matter one way or another, but I still feel it is much better to have a decent cryosphere. I personally don't weight the SAI but I do like to see a lot of snow up North. Last year started great, and then as many of you remember, we lost huge amounts of NA snow cover after the excellent start. I still prefer to see it snow covered than not up North. So that's the reason for this post. A decent start so far.

I like this very much and could help us here. Maybe forcing will be dateline centered, while the Eastern Pac cools off.

Some hang the hat on the negative GLAAM Personally I think its a marketing move here. And I love the part about the low confidence

Meanwhile we build up North , for your Fire pit of course

You know, it certainly could be worse. Tonight it is a gem out there. You notice the sunsets are really much earlier, I was surprised by how quickly this month is going by.

Yes you are right, the PNA not as positive, the NAO and the AO not as negative , might be very warm until later in October. Never ending summer except for this lucky break.

@C.A.P.E. Speaking of rain, the WPC in the long range discussion mentions deep tropical moisture starting to move up North and Northeast from Eastern Texas past day 7 if you look at the Day 7 map at the WPC it lends support for rainfall to make it here later next week after the warm surge on the weekend and then after that maybe a cooler regime takes over again. Not related to rainfall but interesting is the spike maybe in the PNA , a lot of spread but interesting

Yes, nice read ( his break down is very detailed ) and the QBO is favoring us, as others have said as well, including Mitchnick as well. Wonder if the winter comes on like a rubber band snapping back, with a sudden change to cold. Seems Ray implies at the end of his outlook a colder and drier scenario, but mentions above normal precip along the East Coast. If anything seems that the SH may provide a clue as well. And for us here in the NH as we get deeper into the cold season wonder about the effects on our PV from various factors.

Meanwhile Alaska is melting ....... below ground perma frost is thawing quickly. More records set this month there in terms of high temps. And the waters to the West and SW are very warm.

No rain, more heat later in the week, 88 to 90 plus. Vast areas of the East very dry. Ocean temps remain very, very warm.

Without help from the tropics no hope for rainfall. Actually, dry feedback you could say is winning out , even though the powerful summer sun is waning. No dew just sticky and nasty with bugs !!! What looked like relief in the long term I am not so confident. Globally it looks warm too . Again this decade has always had warm falls, so for us to be warm to November is a high probability. If a sudden change to this outcome would happen, maybe it could be regarded as a tip off to the winter, that would be looking at the cup half full.

A further look at the seasonal

I hate seasonal models but if you want a feeling this far out it looks pretty grim for snow in the Mid Atlantic. Seems the general atmospheric set up portrayed by the various models and super model blends look to favor a Western Winter and cold and snowy up in the Great Plains. Maybe the continued tendency for a warmer climate is making it harder and harder for winters to deliver below 40 North. A warm snow-less winter in these parts would not surprise me, nor would a complete failure of the models leading to a more traditional cold and snowier winter in the East.

Some cool info on the warm blob. The article is not hyping , but just bringing up some comparisons and why the warm blob may simply fizzle away. https://www.forbes.com/sites/allenelizabeth/2019/09/05/another-warm-blob-is-forming-in-the-pacific-ocean/#78dc8d9a14af

Don it is interesting that the Weather Channel through weather.com has October and November as being below average in the NE and December near to above. While Accuweather is going for mainly pleasant conditions . https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-09-11-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-wsi As winter begins, climate models suggest warmer than average conditions across much of the country. The Southwest will remain much above average, while the Southeast may be near or slightly below average. It remains possible that signals from atmospheric blocking could outweigh any impacts from atmospheric El Niño, which would result in considerably cooler temperatures across the eastern half of the country. In addition, an area of well above average ocean temperatures off the West Coast, known as the "blob," may also have an impact on temperatures across the country late this year. "While the blob is but one factor this winter, the unusually warm waters in the northeastern Pacific do seem to correlate with colder winters" in the Midwest and Northeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. The blob typically is more impactful later in the winter, but could have some impact in December. While Accuweather has the Fall advertised as mainly pleasant in the NE. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-us-fall-forecast/70008922 AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “There are probably going to be people at the beaches for a longer duration this year compared to other years.” By October, a cool down will be noticeable across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, but it won’t signal any early wintry conditions for the regions. He said, “I think the highest elevations of the Northeast will have the best chances for autumn snow as we get into mid-season, but I think we’re going to be waiting a long time for significant snow that’s going to stick.”

Wonder if the action of the -SOI helps turn us wetter in October? Read about an eventual jet extension and then a + PNA but we are very dry here. You too, as I see in that indicator map. Seems that the tropics will not help us.

Nice to see, regardless of outcome at this time of year.

Dive continues 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Sep 2019 1013.56 1016.10 -28.88 -10.70 -8.55 12 Sep 2019 1014.46 1016.25 -24.42 -10.34 -8.18 11 Sep 2019 1015.25 1014.90 -11.70 -9.91 -7.91 10 Sep 2019 1014.70 1014.25 -11.11 -9.63 -7.72 9 Sep 2019 1013.50 1014.80 -21.51 -9.19 -7.49 8 Sep 2019 1013.95 1015.15 -20.92 -7.80 -7.03 7 Sep 2019 1014.10 1014.35 -15.27 -6.34 -6.71 6 Sep 2019 1014.09 1013.55 -10.58 -5.17 -6.55 5 Sep 2019 1013.81 1013.60 -12.54 -4.27 -6.55 4 Sep 2019 1013.73 1013.90 -14.79 -3.66 -6.54 3 Sep 2019 1013.36 1013.85 -16.70 -3.23 -6.43 2 Sep 2019 1012.96 1014.15 -20.86 -3.06 -6.33 1 Sep 2019 1013.31 1013.40 -14.32 -2.99 -6.29 31 Aug 2019 1013.01 1013.35 -11.90 -3.00 -6.32 30 Aug 2019 1012.61 1014.40 -20.70 -2.85 -6.22 29 Aug 2019 1014.44 1015.30 -15.05 -2.05 -6.07 28 Aug 2019 1015.17 1014.90 -8.19 -1.22 -6.10 27 Aug 2019 1015.16 1013.85 -1.88 -0.64 -6.12 26 Aug 2019 1014.85 1013.20 0.18 -0.61 -6.17 25 Aug 2019 1014.30 1013.55 -5.28 -0.40 -6.33 24 Aug 2019 1015.25 1014.80 -7.10 -0.03 -6.48

Rather quiet ......... not sure I believe the CM predictions.

The warm pool near the date line as modeled supports this, so no surprise there.

More to come......

Will be interesting to see if we can buckle or slow the Pac jet this Winter and late Fall. Last winter several records were broken in regards to the West to East jet stream speed. Even happened in the spring as well.