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From Amy

Interesting

Yes, don't forget the eggs too. You might starve to death with the drifts making travel impossible.....

Rain went poof...... incredibly dry here, now many more days in a row without rain and then the heat arrives , typical Sept garbage , was more pleasent and better soil moisture in July LOL Will not even be able to over seed with the machine until it either rains a good amount, or I water to soften the ground. Can't win. The continuous extreme interval rainfall has stopped. Wonder if things pick back up as we near October.

If they call for it enough times it will happen

You are correct it was Tip from the New England that suggested there was so much warm water in the Pac and a general lack of a gradient or I imagine he means forcing possibly. The lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere caused the desired Nino outcomes to never occur. Not to mention the Nino was very weak. The red flag should have been the Dec + SOI Some even mentioned the waters in the IO, East of Japan and near Aussie as concerns and the High pressure system I think North of Hawaii caused issues too. The raging Pac jet set records last winter, as did the high MJO amp including records for for the time the MJO spent in the warm phases as well. Many of these outcomes were the very opposite of what was forecasted by various weather pros and private mets as well. This is interesting though from Judah that early indications seem to point to a weak PV early on . Same thing happened last Fall. But the killer many thought was the SSWE and the weak Nino and such. Maybe this winter other factors will be the drivers of the pattern, Will be an almost impossible winter to forecast from a seasonal view point. Trust no forecast you hear. You could even make the argument that due to increasing global wamth using pre 2000 analogs are useless. The PV should start to form in the coming days and weeks. Based on the Paul Newman’s website https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html the PV looks to be weaker than normal out of the gate. This may be related to the weak PV last May associated with the Final Warming or the nearly continuous high latitude summer blocking. To be honest I am not sure how significant a weak start to the PV is for the remainder of the PV season, but at least for now I expect an interesting upcoming PV season. There was a paper that received some publicity how low Arctic sea ice does not favor colder mid-latitude winters while I was on vacation. I haven’t had a chance to read the paper yet but maybe I will share some of my own thoughts in an upcoming blog.

This is pretty cool and thought provoking.

from bluewave, very interesting <<< The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward.  >>>>

Yep, he is, the walker cell and the Nino and Nina effects were mentioned by him. Seems like a combo that could yield an earlier winter setting in and a colder Nov and Dec than many envision although he did say we need to wait a month to see how things go. I see a change in the IO as well. Need to see who posted that, it might have been bluewave. The SST NH configuration does look rather interesting at this time.

Another cool off coming later in the week

I am glad that worked well for you. I need to cut the grass short, rake to remove the thatch and then will rent the machine in mid Sept. No later . I stopped using week control about 6 weeks ago in anticipation of over seeding. I cut back on nitrogen too because my soil test showed I was go and I think too much nitrogen might have been the issue to a degree with my grass fungus.

Last Sept I recall you did the same, I was faked out by the warm weather in Sept and put it off and come later October it turned colder on a dime. I am not making the same mistake this year, will over seed in mid Sept regardless of the weather. Purhcased timers and good sprinklers. Will rent a aerator then.  How did last years's over-seed and bare spot repair work for you. I recall we did have rain in the Fall .

As I mentioned weeks ago there are some things happening that may favor a good winter and maybe not even an overall warm Fall. I came across this today by HM :

Did you read the bottom that bascially is summary : Believe from the minimum and some things happen almost in real time as you get solar forcing ( not cause and effect but implied by observation the article mentions ) see here The analysis confirmed previous results of Woollings et al. (2010) that showed increased DJF blocking frequency around periods of solar minimum, although these results should be treated with caution since the analysed data span only 58 years. The maximum response (with 99% statistical significance; see Figure 8(b)) was found to occur over Iceland at 1‐year lag, i.e. it does not display the 3–4 year lag seen in the SLP results. The DJF‐averaged response was found to come primarily from the late‐winter (JF) response, with no statistically significant influence seen in December. This suggests that the early‐winter influence on the NAO via ocean feedbacks described above, which presumably influence the storm track, has little influence on the frequency of blocking. The late‐winter influence lends support to earlier studies that suggest a stratosphere–blocking interaction (Woollings et al., 2010) since the stratosphere also responds to solar forcing almost immediately (Gray et al., 2013; Mitchell et al., 2015). However, we note that such short response lags (and the additional uncertainty in lag‐times introduced by uncertainty in which solar index is best employed) mean that it is not possible to categorically distinguish cause from effect using only observational data. While the late‐winter surface signal in SLP and blocking may be a response to top‐down stratospheric forcing, it is also possible that the stratosphere could simply be responding to the change in blocking frequency caused by some other influence mechanism, since blocking events are associated with increased wave propagation into the stratosphere and have been identified as precursors to disturbances of the stratospheric vortex in winter. Well‐designed model experiments are needed to clarify this.

I suggest you read that article that @EasternLIposted it is very interesting . Just finished reading it myself. Seems after for the -NAO is backed up even though the time period is not that long . As for the AO the article really focused on the NAO domain.

He is still no doubt bitter from last winter. Can't blame him........ah the weather is the weather and many times is simply too complex to predict. But indeed, there have been very long time periods in the past where winters were horrible in terms of snowfall. We have been spoiled since 2000. We will get another HECS , however patience is required.

@EasternLI Got burned big time on this last year. Hate to even mention it but this is a weather forum and it may be relevant to to the upcoming winter. Or maybe not . Wondering outloud whether there is any relationship to the upcoming NH Winter that we can get from looking at the SH Winter that is happening, or has happened. Of particular note is the PV and what is happening down there. Although personally my desire is to have a great PAC and a negative AO here. Feeling good, along with some others, that we are cycling towards a rather significant -NAO winter in the next couple years. Could be delayed and impact winter 20-21 or maybe it is this year, winter 19-20 . This may be of interest :

When you also look at the solar minimum and add a 12 month lag period there are winters that perform better after the actual solar bottom in terms of a -NAO. Although the SST signal this year shows we may be due for an averaged -NAO during the period from Dec to March it may actually end up being next winter that we benefit we benefit even though the cold pool signal argues it is this winter that may feature a -NAO. Even sensible weather at this point is a bit different as well. Feel this Fall may be a bit differ from last year in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. I read the Accuu Weather forecast and they predict a warm Fall and describes the NE section of the US to be pleasent. Hmm Previous Falls we lingered warm well into October due to the robust WAR and warm Atlantic SSTs. Again not comfortable with how that plays out this year. There are many drivers that are below the radar that could cause this Fall and the upcoming winter to cause the sensible weather to be dramatically different than what many folks may forecast. Even climo may not be the best way to go. I like your posts @raindancewx .

59 here at 630 AM . Just went out to get my coffee, incredible feeling outside. Makes me think about everything pumpkin, mums and the upcoming change in the seasons . A bit opposite from last year at this this point for sure.

It is getting wetter on average - The Super Nino was a game changer IMO.

The 12 z Euro looks decent for some cooler weather after the next few days. Looks like a big change to me . The cooler weather arrives then it looks to warm up for a few days, but by that time it appears another cooler air mass is building over the Northern Plains getting ready to drop SE. The West Coast really warms up as we hit the end of the month.

Picked up over an inch of rain here in a rather interesting storm. At the end poured with bright sun out. During the storm vivid CTG lightening. I believe Elkton, MD. got it very bad. In that area the storm was warned. Awesome cloud images as well when I was driving home. Got lucky with this rain, did not expect anything today. I had already watered the garden this morning.

rain would be nice dust bowl era here

Dewpoints are gross out this morning ...... 77 dp at my location

There are some indications via the UkMet and ECM long range seasonal SST forecasts that there may be an enhanced Pacific jet similiar to what we had last year that always either prevented , or shortned the duration of any West Coast or NW Canadian ridging. The High pressure location in the Pac near Hawaii also messed up things last year by encouraging the WAR. Without something to slow or buckle the jet combined with a AO and NAO blocking ( a - AO being the first desired if significant, followed by the - NAO we will not have a good winter at all IMHO ) I take some relief that the seasonal models do not show any significant - NAO at this time because last year up to the very end they forecasted it and never materialized; so maybe this year without it portrayed in the long range seasonal guidence it will be a good thing and they will be wrong and we do get periods of blocking to help us here in the Mid Atlantic . For the record I rather have an awesone Pac and I dont care what the Atlantic side does .