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Not sure what it was that went through my area last night at 4:10 AM to 4:45 AM but it produced strong sustained winds and heavy rain, little thunder. Almost like a mini-derecho. Rank it in the top 2 or 3 storms of the spring summer season so far ..... and there have been many. Looked on my android at the mount holly radar and it showed a strong cluster of rainfall/storms moving from SW to NE The cool part was the cluster at the lower portion, my area and others, rotated and swirled as it moved across the area. Hardly ever see that . I see many down limbs this AM driving around. Over .60 from that storm alone

previous location from a a few years back of a confirmed tornado touchdown

Some incredibly loud thunder here and a lot of lightening. Worse is over, but the rain continues.

Blinding rain here and rumblings of thunder..... Northern Delaware from the C and D Canal is getting rocked right now Wife at Super market lights just went out , crazy dark here , really low ceiling

This record would be cool in the winter months. Maybe yes, maybe no, but 83 days, wow ! Seems the cold pool was responsible for the long cycle of the -NAO.

Hopefully it will be. The ingredients are there for a more region-wide rainfall. I was lucky last night to pick up some rain, storm went warned. Incredible lightening and very heavy rain, also experienced a gust front as well prior ro the rain. Good luck to you with the rain !

WPC did a little tweak: the primary change from the previous outlook was to expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area. This was to cover where the model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 to 80% for 3".

97/77 heat index 113 highest so far, going outside now to water the bases of the veggies .

Some inland water temps are just nuts Bolded is the recent temp Delaware City DE 83.7 (07/21/2019 18:36 UTC) 81 83 83 80 76 73 67 61 Lewes DE 78.8 (07/21/2019 18:48 UTC) 71 74 76 75 73 70 65 58 Reedy Point DE 86.9 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 80 82 81 80 77 73 67 61 Annapolis MD 76 78 78 77 75 71 66 60 Baltimore MD 84.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 77 78 79 79 77 72 66 61 Chesapeake City MD 89.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 81 83 83 81 77 73 67 60 Ocean City MD 69.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 68 69 71 71 71 69 65 59 Solomons Island MD 86.4 (07/21/2019 18:48 UTC) 79 81 82 84 79 73 66 61 Tolchester Beach MD 87.8 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 79 81 80 79 76 71 66 59 Washington DC 87.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC)

Bath water 86 degrees F. East of NC, wow !

Yep, air quality alert in place , code orange here. Just another element of concern for some folks.

Decent low pressure area for this time of year. Mount Holly already issued a FFW for my area effective July 22 at 10:00 AM. The entire progression suggests big time rainfall potential. Might be able to restore ground soil reserves to get us through the remainder of the month into early August, with a green up.

Watering the flowers and took just 2 minutes to work up a sweat. Dew point 78 here. And whats up with the sky? Seems more haze today or smoke ? GOES show no deep blues like yesterday on the visible

For the beach goers: very warm surf in Wildwood, and Cape May extending South to Dewey and Ocean City, MD. ( I saw some 80 degree surf temps, wow ! ) but as Mount Holly NWS points out, some upwelling further North. << it appears as though there is some upwelling along the New Jersey coast, mainly from Long Beach Island down to the Atlantic City area. Water temperatures right along the shore are in the middle and upper 60s in spots. >>

Yep, certainly a bump up from previous WPC guidance. Day 1 to 3

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ? If so, no guarantee of a change. Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall. Seems to be more at play here. So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome. I rather have a +PDO, favorable PAC , etc.

Posted only for entertainment value. Anything can happen, and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually, I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively . Also, IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo. Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know.

This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. Want snow ? - you have to wait till March . However, maybe this October we get another Hazel.

Hmm... Sounds great..... I am almost ready to use Google maps and head on down .....

If I were closer I be there. Looks yummy ! I LOVE crabs !!!

Also, the Pac Jet has set another warm season record. Same thing happened in the Winter and screwed up our cold and storm tracks. It is acting to pump up the WAR , similiar to the winter as well. The Pac Jet also hindered the forecast of Winter West coast ridging, which looked like it would develop on the weeklies/seasonals and then was fractured by the might Pac jet.

If memory serves me correctly I believe @bluewave mentioned the Super Nino being responsible to a degree for this. Many recent dew point records have taken place since the peak of the Super Nino. In addition ( also from a conversation with bluewave ) the robust WAR and warm SW Atlantic SSTs have helped in delivering many records recently across the East , of which, many have been late in the summer and the early Fall. When plottted these records clearly follow the Western flank of the WAR from the SE , Florida up to the Mid Atlantic .

Something going on recently the past 4 years with these extreme dew points and record breaking dew points. Some say the after effects of the Super Nino are responsible, and others speculate about the Atlantic Ocean cycle and the WAR.

Middletown no better, was in the garden and sweating like a pig. 90 degrees here at 10:15 AM. Some unofficial beach surf zone temps reported this AM at between 80 to 82 degrees. Wow !

Delayed re-seeding of the lawn and than BANG the cold came and lost the window. Last Sept and early October sucked ! But as @nw baltimore wx said, the shorter days and earlier sunsets is one offsetting positive of any late season heat.