frd

Good point about sources. I know various models have different ideas about the MJO progression. Some on the colder side, other warmer. I believe the ECM depiction might be the warmer phase(s). Meanwhile we have a vortex strengthening event taking place. The vortex normally fluctuates in strength, and I believe this is the time of the year when it is the strongest. I still prefer it to be weaker honestly. Also, the precursor pattern pattern that weakened it after the last ramp up , well, I am not so sure we get a healthy attack going on any time soon. I hear things, but nothing very firm. The seasonal models, as I know, called for the vortex to be on the stronger side and remain so, however that does not mean a weakening vortex can not happen in Jan. Even a SSWE can still occur later in the season, including vortex elongations, and displacement events. A lot to keep up with.

As mentioned previously, a few mets believe the +IOD will weaken. Actually, it has started to weaken, hopefully that trend continues and the caveat is the lag period needed to wash out the residual atmospheric effects of the record + IOD takes some time. I have not heard anyone yet venturing an estimate on when that will be.

If correct, will be interesting tracking that serious cold for mid Jan.

Just looked at some composites, very interesting psu. Hopefully, an eventual Pac transition occurs sooner versus later. Just reflecting, but maybe the Pac puke was due, considering the duration that we had a decent Pac . Granted, the Atlantic muted the recent, no as good Pac, as evident by the warmer December temps out West. Maybe the Pac nasty period is simply the Jan thaw two to three weeks early. My positive side says, I hope so. Not sure that fits though with the other indices in fantasy land. A very volatile period indeed.

Bob, as you stated, not the first time the Pac has ruined everything for us and others, even with a favorable Atlantic. And, as stated several times in the past, the Pac jet has been a long- term concern, as has the inability to achieve a +PNA pattern and improved longer lasting ridging out .Some of the same issues as last winter. Even Tip mentioned in the NE forum a couple days ago, that we ( more so his region, but I find that concerning because they are at a higher latitude and in better climo too ) really need a -EPO cold air delivery and intervals of +PNA. He stated issues regarding the lack of cold air delivery and entrenchment. I found Tip's points right on the mark. I also think back to bluewave's posts, over the past three months, and how the configuration of the Central Pac SST profile supports the ridge further West this year, like last year, and this also eventually could lead to a SE ridge feedback. We need warmer SSTs up against the West Coast.

Ralph, I didn't say I was punting all of Jan. I merely stated that even if the pattern is not so great for a majority of the upcoming winter ( speculation ) all you need is a decent winter like period of say, several weeks, with multiple snows to mentally check off the winter as a decent one. It really is all about perceptions at times. No doom and gloom was intended.

A great period of winter weather from Jan 23 to Feb 25 would make this winter a winner. Still feel it delivers, but as you know, this upcoming winter has always been referred to as one with conflicting signals. regardless, no one should panic now even if the warm up lasts a while.

Harder and harder to get an old fashion winter. I also do not agree with those whom stated winter started early . Look at national temps and the big warm up coming, and it is par for the course. Even the post 12/20 warm up is fitting the pattern from the last 9 years. Nothing really special so far. Now, if this were December 2002, yes, that winter started early.

If we get a phased bomb on the East Coast that delivers I will thank the + PMM tip off, LOL Does have a correlation to somewhat higher probabilities of phased cyclones and colder temps in the East. Of course, this is all fun and games at this point, but very entertaining. Besides, I really need snow !!! ( And please no DC 0 inches and Boston with 30 inches )

Always great to have to stop in WOW. The threat period has been there a while, certainly has significant "potential ".

As stated several days ago, expect rather impressive changes day to day with the modeling beyond day 5 .

This morning I ran out of time to check, but I believe compared to December this time last year the 30 and 90 SOI day values are much better. Plus, last year at this time were were running numerous positives with the SOI and the MJO went whacky with the high amp warm phases, don't see that this year. Which as you know, is a huge plus, and I agree with your reasoning for an improved Pac in the LR. Speculation of course, but once we achieve that better Pac look it may hang around for a while, even if it does take a a bit longer to arrive on the scene. This may hinge on the weakening of the IOD and a quicker fading of the residual atmospheric effects. I am hopeful for this to happen.

This is a period where the indices are a bit more favorable, so there may be some support for some type of event.

@showmethesnow you have any background with the QBO ? Looking at over some data this morning and attempting to figure when the real benefits actually start to get into the pattern for us. Some research shows it might not be until Feb. depending upon what you level you look at. However, I read the actual shear between levels is just as important. Imagine the possibilities if we can get some help from the QBO re blocking and combine that with a weakened + IOD along with diminishing lag effects for the second half of the winter.

I have been harping on this for over a year, and it continues, another record as well. The Pac hyper jet. And, this is in a backdrop where we have been rather lucky in this region as most of the country has been above normal temp-wise through the 12 th. I would bet if improvements in the Pac evolve, including some +PNA support, a moderate snow event is soon in the cards for us. The Pac jet is too difficult to be modeled correctly at times, add to this the MJO progression and other associated variables, plus standing wave and it is a complex mess. from a met , purduewx80 on the NYC forum: << Speaking of the raging Pacific jet - Boise, ID set a new 250mb wind speed record today - 173KT at 12Z vs. the previous record of 169KT. Records there go back to 1948.

HM really thinks deep arctic air will return when the West Pac re-sets. The re-set will assist in the EPO and WPO regions, says the worse is yet to come. I say Bring it !!! I would love to see a -WPO and a -EPO.

Several, if not more , very interesting solutions with what looks like impressive wrap around snows and deepening lows, some tracking South of us too. Not a bad run. But like you said Bob, so much is still a question mark about this period.

Exactly, back in the days of AOL dial up.....

@C.A.P.E. don't look at this afternoon's Euro Control for your area late this month I call it the frd/CAPE special

I think his area is NYC. I recall him from Eastern back in the days

We do better in March. I bet running the numbers it is remarkable how much more snow in this area the last 10 years during March versus December. Nothing new there, source regions still very cold, Atlantic SSTs colder, etc.

Not sure how relevant, and to what latitude this might be targeted to , ie. DC , Philly or even NYC., but I read that despite having a -AO in December, along with a -NAO the most important indice to have in your favor during December for increased snowfall odds is a +PNA. I am beginning to believe that. You don't need the +PNA as much in J, F and M The +PNA does seem more important in reality versus the -NAO/ Davis Straits block during December. Now for the records, a MECS in December in the Northern Mid Atlantic, yes, you need both. A lot of what I said here is from reading all the great posts and stats form Don S. Love his stuff ! So next time you see a Greenland block you still need to check the Pac. I know you know all this, LOL, but some folks may not understand the importance of the Pac , especially this early in the season and for our hood especially . Caveat mention here: as @psuhoffman stated, having this blocking in December may indeed be a positive sign for later in the season. Especially seeing the NAO blocking a couple times so far.

@Bob Chill The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period. Awesome pattern cancel. Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. . However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow.

Yes, totally agree. And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things. We shall know soon enough.

If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion. It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days, so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips. We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility.