frd

Day 6-10 Discussion:Late season frosts are possible early next week as far south as Northern SERC. Some of the daily departures will exceed 10 degrees below normal as a broad upper low centered over the Lakes and NE extends well south. This is a classic late season snow pattern near the Lakes. The only warmth in this set up is over the SW.

Same here, looks dry all week. Rather windy tomorrow with low dew points meanwhile the Atlantic surf zone temps are rising fairly quickly with somespots already 56. Looked at the radar at 3 and 4 AM the activity was very spotty and missed most of us.

Tornado Warning 4/1/2023 18:04 EDT through 4/1/2023 18:30 EDT Tornado Warning issued April 1 at 6:04PM EDT until April 1 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ At 604 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Bridgeville, or 10 miles northwest of Georgetown, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Georgetown, Milford, Milton, Bridgeville, Ellendale, Andrewsville, Greenwood and Farmington. Instructions To repeat, a tornado has been confirmed. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

You seem surprised, nothing new. The Atlantic SST profiles reinforces the WAR , SST distribution in the Pac is changing. Very difficult to get a long duration + PNA. Not to mention a hyper active jet stream, via the West Pac warm pool, which inhibits the + PNA. Expect more of the same in the years ahead.

The base state. Controlled 90 % of the winter in the East. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is set to really warm up. Already much above normal.

Scary question.

Good, its over. Donald S posted about a week ago in the NY forum that in winters with very little snowfall during the months of December, January and February the probability that March is going to save the winter is very, very low. That statistic may hold yet again.

Looking forward to the beach, seafood and beer. And yes, gardening.

We very well may only achieve 50 % of normal unless there is a massive shift. That looks unlikely. Only a major eruption could cool the Northern Hemisphere. My expectations moving forward are very low. Very sad time to be a snow lover.

This was a decent forecast from Feb 27 th . Also indicates future Nino arriving

Sounds correct, but it does get into phase one by the 15 th.

YES

Dare I say maybe things start trending in our favor versus the normal opposite downhill manner. MJO influence. Not the driver but helping us.

Looks like my only hope is storm 3.

Sexy back in town !!!

Could one speculate that would mean multiple opportunities?? If you go simply by the indices it would appear the window of opportunity closes around the 23rd

Various indices look very nice from the 17th to the 20th.

Only positive changes are for the highlands.

Nearing this date and beyond is a nice + PNA spike.

Control is on acid most times. Microdot city.

It can snow in March bro

Do you still have hope for us in the lowlands near the 15th to the 20th? Personally I enjoyed being outside on Saturday doing some landscaping.

Even with off shore low to the SE still rain far inland. Nothing here . Pathetic winter.