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That will not do. For me

Wonder is anafront sets up the next event .

The coldest and snowiest part of the pattern is likely after this, extending into March

BAMM upcoming analogs based on the forecasted pattern The upcoming pattern lines up rather nicely with years like 93,14 and 2021. The BIG wildcard could be the -NAO that might rival years like 2010 etc. There really isn't a great match overall for the upcoming -EPO/-PNA/-NAO/-AO mid Feb pattern. These look good for now. Where did it snow in these years? Some heavy hitters in there. The all model NAO forecast is remarkable. There will without a doubt be some big eastern US snow risks.

Hopefully not.

Every new day, a more negative AO forecast, also a dropping NAO, and surprise the PNA has improved as well.

Wonder if surpression depression returns and eliminates our chances of meaningful snow, because of either too much blocking or a too far displaced TPV in SE Canada or even further East. I have heard the cases for more NW track this go around in Feb, and early March, more latent heat, shorter wavelenghts, etc.

Well, you might have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express.

Doesn't the Euro tend to over amplify ?

Seems improved pattern favoring a SECS pattern is moving up quicker in time, versus late month or a can kick.

Its coming The AO is going negative, atmospheric river for the month of Feb and early March. TPV in Se Canada and the cherry on top - a PV split with immediate impacts per Bamm. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1885678378562310475 Buckle up friends. A total SPLIT of the stratospheric #Polarvortex is showing up in all the data. Splits from the top down deliver impacts quick. Winter is coming back with a vengeance late month into March. The troposphere is driving the heat flux into the stratosphere leading to the split so we’d get cold from the initial tropospheric forcing anyway. What then happens with the split is blocking sets up and allows it to linger as seen below with all model NAO/AO.

AO set to go negative by mid Feb.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1885138563982917803 From Tomer Regardless of whether a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurs or not, the stubbornly strong stratospheric polar vortex is likely to weaken — both GFS & ECMWF show anomalously strong 100-hPa poleward heat flux: The TPV tends to remain in SE Canada per Bamm https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1884994744310178230 We have a continued source region of cold air moving into the middle of Feb and beyond. - NAO looks to develop as mentioned, along with a gradual - NAM state.

This is supported by lastest AO forecast. Also, there is a strong heat flux set to take place next week. Expecting to see a - NAM state by mid Feb.

Going to take a while for maritime forcing to become more favorable for the East. Meanwhile, still awaiting for continued signs regarding a drop in the AO. If and when the cold air takes over in the East, it may coincide with a very active weather pattern. Some late Feb and early March analogs are very active precip-wise.

I imagine that configuration helps guide colder air towards our area, and may have a role with the PV being on our side of the NH. I have not heard of any SSW events, but we do not need them the way the Pac has been cooperating.

Not really surprising to see that blocking over the top. If you look at the previous rise in the AO during mid Fall, you will see several cycles down ( each one a little more negative ) which happened over a period of about 6 weeks. The peak - AO occurred about 10 weeks after the mid October + peak AO, however, not sure if we repeat that amount of time this go around. I believe we will see a continuation of the AO gradually trending negative again with the - AO peak sometime in March. This should favor another snowfall threat for the Mid Atlantic.

Sounds like you are aligning your thoughts with HM. You guys are on the same page, makes sense if we keep the cold on our side, then we can score in early March.

Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers ! Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter.

11 degrees here. FYI Blizzard warning in Louisiana. Crazy times.

I thought Bethany was a ride

We really need a f ing MECS . So everyone participates.

Unfortunately another bust in Northern Delaware. Pathetic models. 1/2 inch here.

Wet snow starting with a little sleet. Temp starting to drop.

Yep, MECS, followed by a clipper all while the 540 line remains to our South to the very end of the run.