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Thanks for your insights. Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown, De. It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days.

You were corrent about amping up and less SE of I 95. Much higher totals NW. This will turn out to be a nothing burger in Delaware.

I do recall from my childhood , way way back , this type of acrtic front has brought surprises in regards to snowfall being higher then what was forecasted days prior. Will be cool to observe over the next several days. Lastly, not sure about the effect on sensible weather, but the NAO is dropping agian, wonder the implications for Sunday night's event and the later system next week. The NAO HA signal is there between the 22 nd and 24 th.

14 degrees here presently. Noticed they treated the roads with snow showers in the forecast later today.

Mount Holly with only a 30 % probability of snow Sunday evening, that might be updating later today. Snow before the Siberian airmass moves in would be aswesome !

Well, if you look at tracks of low pressure systems over the past say eight years during the winter months, there has been many inland trackers, coastal huggers and our favorite, "the cutter ". Not sure why this is, blocking, Atlantic ocean SSTs, etc. Have not seen many benchmark storms. Maybe others could chime in as to the reason. But yes, the GFS is lost totally. Sad.

Even if so, that might be a temporary feature. Yet to be determined.

Yep, that was my thought as well. Very interesting.

So what is Webb saying here ? Is it that the coldest air never makes it fully to the East and dumps SW like it did in 2021 ? https://x.com/jamesathomas15/status/1879300372474495096 My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped on/near the Rockies is that they usually sink southward more quickly than models lead you to believe in the medium range, and end up getting dumped a bit further west like the eps/geps has shown for days Pouring this kind of cold air into a mid level trough will entice it to dig more quickly & the +PVa created above the low to mid level cold dome (a stable layer), “drags” the trough base further west.

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879323899961499735 Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5 Bit of an interesting "operational vs ensemble" battle in the extended guidance from the European here... Operational model shows occasional pulses in the polar blocking (-AO/-NAO) that continues to filter stronger cold eastward. Ensemble suggests things stay weaker here, allowing the southeast ridge to moderate temperatures in the East while the stronger cold dumps into the West. Will be an interesting fight to watch in the days ahead.

Yep, double the amount, very significant run to run output.

Baby steps. Keep the faith.

There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week.

He should apply to BammWX

Whats the surprise, the analogs indicated this days ago. Most snowfall the next 15 days in VA. and below. Wasted cold for our area.

Everyone wants hopium.

Some conversations in other forums here, and online as well, mentioning the pattern between Jan 20 th and Jan 31 st favors the deep South. Analog storms during this time period in the past, based on the major features had heavy snow in VA., NC and SC. And, very little snow in ILG, Philly, Baltimore, DC., NYC and Boston.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092406022967591 Tomer had stated he thinks the trough axis was going to move West in time ( ie. Feb ) and we would experience retrogression, however now I am wondering with newer data does it stay situated closer to the East , as you mentioned. This would add to our window of potential snow events. Meanwhile Bamwx posted that the + TNH pattern may persist in Feb. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1878076865157476541

Should be interesting model runs in the days ahead, and I look forward to cold smoke scenarios

Yikes, what a a drop. Also, combine that - EPO with a favorable elongated PV, and it ups the odds of a cold powder storm later in the month.

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747 Eric Webb @webberweather <The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

If you look at the blocking regimes and observe the NAO there is significant potential for a classic Mid Atlantic SECS event, during the favored window of Jan 18 th to Jan 25 th . Current forecast do not show any deep dives in the AO or NAO indices. NAO getting ready to reverse near Jan . 20 th The driver is the EPO. As Tomer states the increased risks of SECS can extend days past the end time of the Greenland High regime. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324

.50 inch here Very pretty. What a great week winter wise.

Appears most of the action including cold /snow is up North and NW. Dismal snow map regardless of whether it is useful or not. Maybe its just the GFS.

In this area we still appear to have a decent delivery method for cold. I am not worried about rain at this time for the potential system near the 20 th. Meanwhile, nationwide snow cover continues to expand, more so with the southern system next several days.