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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    May emerge in phase 8 at a low amplitude prior to the holidays, meanwhile the AO looks awesome as we head into December.
  2. frd
    And so it begins
  3. frd
    The trends with the AO have been remarkable in regards to forecasts of such a deep dive into the negative. -3.0 deviation forecast for early December and no real rebound afterwards of significance. Just need moisture and maybe we score after the 7th.
  4. frd
    If using similiar rollovers would that not lead to/and or support a higher probability of MECS later in Jan and early Feb ? I am liking the overall trends here with the Pac and the HL. Hopefully, no fakeouts this winter season.
  5. frd
    Do you believe the pattern evolving with an improved Pac leads to a cold stormy outlook for the East in mid December, leading up to and including the holidays?
  6. frd
    Better odds than last December when the block was further South and the West Coast set up was slightly different. AO progged to be diving just prior to this time.
  7. frd
    Last December also had a great Greenland block. Maybe just bad luck. But to me the Pac rules.
  8. frd
    Can you imagine the excitement if we transition to colder will possible snow towards the end of December to coincide with the winter solstice I have been waiting for that for many many years.
  9. frd
    Resulting in this from the GFS / GEFS for early December. Hoping for a favorable look up top as we near later December, or even sooner, to better coincide with mid to late December snowfall climo.
  10. frd
    Looks like cross polar flow there. Nice Pac. No signs of a - NAO yet. But, the Pac will trump the Atlantic.
  11. frd
    Currently going in the opposite direction. And even with a deep AO the cold in recent years all dumped out West and even into Texas.
  12. frd
    4 out of the last 6 years there has been record North America snow cover in December, with several of those winters showing indications of a weaker PV demonstrated by significant periods of a negative AO. A few Decembers during this period had a cold weather in the East. However, the majority lost the record snow cover and it turned warmer after mid to late December. Not sure if any one signal, or long range model has any accuracy in this day and age. Even the periods with a deeply negative AO , a great indicator of snow potential , produced very little, if any snowfall here. Seems possible that a perfect Pacific pattern may be needed to produce snowfall in the Mid Atlantic region.
  13. frd
    BWI: Nov 12 IAD: Nov 11 DCA: Nov 13 RIC: Nov 13 BWI Departure: +1.1
  14. frd
    If the same outcome would happen in the NH looking for the first signs by early December. This is one way to ruin a possible decent setup with a Negative and descending QBO and West based forcing.
  15. frd
    I feel depressed, must be seasonal sun disorder, lots of people have it. Coffee is awesome, but some sun and D3 would do wonders.
  16. frd
    I believe the seasonal modelas have the best look since 15-16, however, wondering if the polar state changes late Fall despite the early favorablre look up top due to the increased water vapor injecting at the high lattitudes causing a possible colder general look up top with less blocking. Otherwise, hopeful at this time.
  17. frd
    I am very hopeful regarding a - QBO, but worried about the water vapor release from the erruption of Honga Tonga messing things up and cooling the PV starting in late Fall. .
  18. frd
    Pretty cool radar loop showing intensification right up until the point of landfall.
  19. frd
    to add to that
  20. frd
    Blocking High pressure to the North. Possible very wet outcome.
  21. frd
    Blocking to our North. WPC trending wetter over time.
  22. frd
    Can you recommend the product name ? Also, is your blight under control with this product ? I ask because it seems this is more so a fertilizer for soil microbes. here is a cool research link https://extension.illinois.edu/news-releases/scale-your-gardens-health-fish-emulsion-fertilizer
  23. frd
    Very true, thanks ! I researched last year that the blight spores reside in the soil , when it rains it splashes upon the bottom leaves and then works it way up the plant. Still happy I had decent tomatoe crop, but not like 30 years ago when I had so many I could can my own tomatoes for winter time homemade pizza sause or spaghetti sauce.
  24. frd
    How do you not get tomato blight? Been a constant issue here even with new raised bed gardens. So hot and humid and wet ! I tried a copper spray and straw mulch, helped a little bit, but by mid August most tomatoes not are not looking great. As many leaves died from the blight.
  25. frd
    https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature soil moisture up a bit and soil temp trending down. Best germination for overseed is 70 degrees F 5 day average. plug in your location using the link above
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