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Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ? If so, no guarantee of a change. Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall. Seems to be more at play here. So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome. I rather have a +PDO, favorable PAC , etc.

Posted only for entertainment value. Anything can happen, and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually, I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively . Also, IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo. Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know.

This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. Want snow ? - you have to wait till March . However, maybe this October we get another Hazel.

Hmm... Sounds great..... I am almost ready to use Google maps and head on down .....

If I were closer I be there. Looks yummy ! I LOVE crabs !!!

Also, the Pac Jet has set another warm season record. Same thing happened in the Winter and screwed up our cold and storm tracks. It is acting to pump up the WAR , similiar to the winter as well. The Pac Jet also hindered the forecast of Winter West coast ridging, which looked like it would develop on the weeklies/seasonals and then was fractured by the might Pac jet.

If memory serves me correctly I believe @bluewave mentioned the Super Nino being responsible to a degree for this. Many recent dew point records have taken place since the peak of the Super Nino. In addition ( also from a conversation with bluewave ) the robust WAR and warm SW Atlantic SSTs have helped in delivering many records recently across the East , of which, many have been late in the summer and the early Fall. When plottted these records clearly follow the Western flank of the WAR from the SE , Florida up to the Mid Atlantic .

Something going on recently the past 4 years with these extreme dew points and record breaking dew points. Some say the after effects of the Super Nino are responsible, and others speculate about the Atlantic Ocean cycle and the WAR.

Middletown no better, was in the garden and sweating like a pig. 90 degrees here at 10:15 AM. Some unofficial beach surf zone temps reported this AM at between 80 to 82 degrees. Wow !

Delayed re-seeding of the lawn and than BANG the cold came and lost the window. Last Sept and early October sucked ! But as @nw baltimore wx said, the shorter days and earlier sunsets is one offsetting positive of any late season heat.

Do you think we are seeing our hottest temps for the summer now ? ( We are getting this heat right at the climo peak ) Wonder if the highest temps "relative" to normal still occur in September and October this year? Fits the decadal pattern . Warm Atlantic , strong WAR

@bluewaveWas this not part of the reason the winter did not deliver in the East for most. The rather robust jet breaking down West Coast ridging?

That frontal passage will be the only rainfall oppurtunity for the next 7 to 10 days once the drier airmass moves in, so hopefuly we all score.

@C.A.P.E. Some private met service providers going 2 to 5 below average Eastern half of the Country days 6 to 10, that is bullish !

Yesss is right, that airmass change looks great ! Hope you are right regarding the rainfall. Seems we are in line for rainfall as we exit the heat, but the WPC trimmed down a bit on rainfall in our region for later Sunday through Monday night.

.65 here so far with some of the loudest thunder in a couple years. Some booms were similiar to the vibrations from the Proving Grounds. China and glassware vibrating and rattling. The winds before the line hit I estimate near 50 mph. Deck chairs sent airborne and the weeping cherry was really swaying, heard some cracks but did not see any fallen trees, but is was pretty bad for about 10 minutes with the winds at the very beginning.

Friday will feel unreal......in a bad way ..... although maybe Saturday will be the worse day, looking for a low Friday night only in the low 80's maybe.

Some crazy dew points out there at the present time, searching around and found nearby Annapolis at a very nasty 79 dew point, Ugh !

Wow that is crazy, I like to see some images. By the way, how is the food, I imagine very yummy. You might like this recipe..... I love calamari. My grandmother handed down years to me years ago a recipe that features linguine pasta served with a marinara, from garden tomatoes of course, sauted with the calamari in olive oil and topped of with fresh basil. An excellent seafood sauce , believe ir not.

Over 2.25 inches yesterday, mulch washed away and piled up in the bottom drive way, trees swaying down, garden hit hard, So much rain ! Power outages here and flooding on many roads. I believe the ground water levels must be very high. Fungus and other crap all around. Like clock-work this is similiar to last July. The first storm that hit us before the main area was a sight to behold. A lot of booming thunder with the evening complex. Some sad news about a car that washed away, driven by a women who was pregnant and her child in the Philly area. We need a serious break in my area.

Was body boarding down North Wildwood New Jersey, and wow in my 45 years of memory I can never recall seeing rays there. Many in groups, some surfacing. Did not bother us. My brother-in-law was in amazement. The water was aqua color and warm and the tide was coming in. I Googled on the beach and it seems they are after clams and also moving, or migrating, from South to North. What a day, many great waves, a great day ! Magic Seaweed does a great job along with Swell.com when it comes to forecasting winds changes and swell direction and height. Conditions were at times glassy.

Wow, went to the store and encountered an incredible thunderstorm, the most intense rainfall I have seen in years. Looks like over 1.50 inches here. Flooding on roads and vivid CTG strikes. Believe it is headed NE and carries a STW with it. There goes the garden. but really incredible to see and dark as night too! Also this would not send because of various FIOS issues here, and power outages

Did not expect rain this early, there was a heavy cell SW of me. Here I have .15 with cloud cover. My daughter is at the beach this morning , Bethany, DE, looking on the vis sat appears mostly sunny down there now.

Looks like the odds are increasing for a mid-month heat wave. GFS and EPS seem to concur. Also, bake those Western Atlantic SSTs even further.

Wonder if this year follows the same pattern, or whether we make a change going forward to a hotter regime and drier. drier = hotter Some models indicate mid month a supportive pattern of hotter weather. Yet, so far at least, even a dry periods have reversed going back to wet. Some have missed the rainfall but certainly it has been more wet than not. Summer blocking supports heat further into the season so whether the current blocking continues might have a say.