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Wow this is a surprise, if the progression continues you could make the case that this will help us in terms of high lattitude blocking, and at the least not be a negative. If anything, like you mentioned, neutral is better than extreme positive. And thanks to Mitchnick too .

Fits the pattern of recent Septembers, with maybe not the extreme heat we have experienced recently, certainly the Western Atlantic waters are warm and Sept is normally not a wet month climo- wise. However, I would take a guess and say any real Sept. heat is short-lived. The NE PAc warm pool supports these High pressure visits we are getting and will continue to get for another week. Maybe mid-month warmth followed by a drop again. I don't see any indications of a wetter pattern though. Some modeling a week ago was indicating a cool October.

And so it has started

Is is available most places? I never heard of it but thats not saying much. Is Ultra mean it is heat and drought tolerent ? Thanks

Maybe the last 90 of the summer. And a couple oppurtunities of needed rainfall as well. Your area has done much better than the Mid Atlantic with rainfall in the last 30 to 45 days.

The only green my fescue has is under trees and next to my flower beds, otherwise all is dry and dormant, hopefully not dead. Fungus is not longer a concern. Will await some rain to soften the soil and then get the areator , I am rather confident now the Fall will not be hot but more normal. Some fundamental changes going on now. Also we can hopefully cash in soon on dews at night and the continued lower sun angle and longer nights. I am targeting mid Sept to re seed and over-seed. Good luck with the landscaping and re-seeding.

Certainly seems like a fundamental change has started and is evident in the sensible weather around your area and my area too. Look at the Northern Plains and the summer they have had, you posted on that recently as well. The WAR seems not be as big as of a player as many would have thought , at least so far. The trend seems to be Eastern troughs. The Warm blob is a driver for sure. I am planning now to over seed my lawn early.

Yes, not too bad. Driving to get coffee seeing the leaf stress, drop off and color change has really started earlier this year. Also more spider webs, big winter incoming .

Last Fall it was there to a degree, and many thought it would last and used that as part of a formula to imply a very snowy Eastern winter. Yes, plus the Nino too. But the warm blob fizzled and was never really a player come Jan and Feb. This ( your chart ) keeps setting newer highs and from a technical chart perspective may even go higher. This with the low solar background state might be fun to watch. To me it implies maybe not a super hot Fall afterall.

@bluewave do you see anything to reverse the trend such as deep low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska or will this manisfestation continue? We are in uncharted warmth there. That chart is really an eye openner.

Did great in the warm months but the past winter forecast was way off. Why? Is it because we are in a warming climate and calling for warmth is simply the easy win most times?

He does post some interesting data at times but I learned not to totally trust some of his forecasts .... It has already been proven that the SAI and even total North America snowcover and depth do not provide reliable indications of the upcoming winter.

From Don S. he always has great info - from the NYC forum << The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. >>

SH very interesting indeed , wonder the implications for the NH winter and the solar min SH may have a chance at only the second all time Major SWE - last time and only time was back in 2002 - hmmm, very interesting i

From Amy

Interesting

Yes, don't forget the eggs too. You might starve to death with the drifts making travel impossible.....

Rain went poof...... incredibly dry here, now many more days in a row without rain and then the heat arrives , typical Sept garbage , was more pleasent and better soil moisture in July LOL Will not even be able to over seed with the machine until it either rains a good amount, or I water to soften the ground. Can't win. The continuous extreme interval rainfall has stopped. Wonder if things pick back up as we near October.

If they call for it enough times it will happen

You are correct it was Tip from the New England that suggested there was so much warm water in the Pac and a general lack of a gradient or I imagine he means forcing possibly. The lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere caused the desired Nino outcomes to never occur. Not to mention the Nino was very weak. The red flag should have been the Dec + SOI Some even mentioned the waters in the IO, East of Japan and near Aussie as concerns and the High pressure system I think North of Hawaii caused issues too. The raging Pac jet set records last winter, as did the high MJO amp including records for for the time the MJO spent in the warm phases as well. Many of these outcomes were the very opposite of what was forecasted by various weather pros and private mets as well. This is interesting though from Judah that early indications seem to point to a weak PV early on . Same thing happened last Fall. But the killer many thought was the SSWE and the weak Nino and such. Maybe this winter other factors will be the drivers of the pattern, Will be an almost impossible winter to forecast from a seasonal view point. Trust no forecast you hear. You could even make the argument that due to increasing global wamth using pre 2000 analogs are useless. The PV should start to form in the coming days and weeks. Based on the Paul Newman’s website https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html the PV looks to be weaker than normal out of the gate. This may be related to the weak PV last May associated with the Final Warming or the nearly continuous high latitude summer blocking. To be honest I am not sure how significant a weak start to the PV is for the remainder of the PV season, but at least for now I expect an interesting upcoming PV season. There was a paper that received some publicity how low Arctic sea ice does not favor colder mid-latitude winters while I was on vacation. I haven’t had a chance to read the paper yet but maybe I will share some of my own thoughts in an upcoming blog.

This is pretty cool and thought provoking.

from bluewave, very interesting <<< The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward.  >>>>

Yep, he is, the walker cell and the Nino and Nina effects were mentioned by him. Seems like a combo that could yield an earlier winter setting in and a colder Nov and Dec than many envision although he did say we need to wait a month to see how things go. I see a change in the IO as well. Need to see who posted that, it might have been bluewave. The SST NH configuration does look rather interesting at this time.

Another cool off coming later in the week

I am glad that worked well for you. I need to cut the grass short, rake to remove the thatch and then will rent the machine in mid Sept. No later . I stopped using week control about 6 weeks ago in anticipation of over seeding. I cut back on nitrogen too because my soil test showed I was go and I think too much nitrogen might have been the issue to a degree with my grass fungus.