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Even recently, I think last month, we once again set a new record for the Pac jet. Not sure when it will calm down.

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus Pioneer model you get a D minus I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " . As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

You could simply consider this September may turn out a little different than last September

Missed the best part of the line by a few miles, not much rain only .25 , some areas 1 to 2 inches Looking at the storm total seems like a repeating theme over the summer so far. Feast or famine

Hmm, well the Pac state was interesting that Fall and Winter , and certainly the QBO was not an issue when the winter produced some noteworthy snowfalls. I recall several surprise snowfalls as well along the coastal plain. ( near the beaches of Ocean City, MD. and Fenwick , DE for example. It just wanted to snow that winter. Whether the Pacific base state combined with the low solar background and worked in tandem, not sure. Now as to the 1995 hurrican season and using that as a analog way too early to say, as 1995 was an active year.base chage with the NAo You have to ponder whether we are entering a base state change regarding the NAO, if so, it could be interesting if it persists into the winter. 1995 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and activity in 1995 began on the next day with the formation of Hurricane Allison on June 2. It was a well-above average season in which 21 tropical depressions formed, 19 of which attained tropical storm status, and 11 of these attained hurricanestatus. A quick look at the winter of 1995-96 Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain.

Went out with the dog this AM and got hit with a few "dew" drops from the deck umbrella. :-) But yeah its dry. But on the flip side, seems the lessening rainfall has slowed down my grass fungus.

This will be nice, more so lower dews

I read from a decent science based site that the min can occur anywhere from July 2019 to March 2020. Not sure the QBO will be in the same phase as late 09 and 10. I think that period was East and this year may be West? A lot to consider, not just one element, but still very fascinating to see what happens as we enter the Fall.

Euro seasonals are trash but OK ........ still waiting on cold and snow....... sorry Maue I disagree on any value from these forecasts

Not saying what happens in mid August has any effect on the month of September as a whole but this is to a degree opposite last August when it was so warm and dew points super high. Looks like some changes in the Pacific too taking place. Even the Nino is still alive.

Not JB, and I lost respect for JB about 12 years ago. If I were a met who had to issue a seasonal forecast for the upcoming winter I be rather nervous about it. With the way things are going lately globally in terms of weather patterns and extreme events, I think it is almost impossible to get it right.

Hearing some private mets talking about an early start to winter this year. I am not sure what that is based on. Last year ( early and mid winter winter ) proved even the best seasonal models, plus weekly models, all failed to deliver even close to what actually happened in terms of sensible weather. Consensus proved to be of no value.

Prety impressive . https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record Water pools on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet during its biggest daylong melt event on record, 1 August 2019. Credit: Caspar Haarløv/Into the Ice via AP By Jenessa Duncombe 17 hours ago The Greenland ice sheet broke records on 1 August 2019 by losing more water volume in 1 day than on than any other day since records began in 1950, shedding 12.5 billion tons of water into the sea. The record-breaking day came during a weeklong extreme melt event hitting Greenland due to soaring temperatures and low snow accumulation over the winter. The warmer temperatures are part of a heat wave that scorched Europe in late July, setting records in several countries including Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The extreme melting liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water. Air temperatures rose to 10°C above average in places in Greenland this week and peaked above the freezing point for hours at a time at the ice sheet’s summit more than 3,200 meters above sea level. The months of April, May, June, and July also had higher than average temperatures in Greenland. The volume of water melted per day on the ice sheet this week has increased as temperatures have climbed. The extreme melting on 1 August liquified enough ice to fill 5 million Olympic-sized swimming pools with water, accounting for 12.5 gigatons of water. The latest findings come from observations and model calculations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.

The WAR is really pushed aside on the EPS later next week. Wonder whether the signal for the warmer second half of August/early September comes after the trough shifts away from the East Coast . Certainly seems the frequency of excessive rainfall has been coming dow a bit recently. Wondering if it is now too late to build extreme, long lasting heat as we are passing the climo peak heat period and the days continue to shorten. However, the warmth of the Atlantic is impresssive. Will be interesting to see how long the duration of the Northeast trough remains once it sets up.

I will look into it @showmethesnowand let you know if I find a good answer.

As you know, we can live here with a good Pac and a not so good Atlantic. The very best Pac patterns can really produce for us here and be cold as well. The pattern over the NW North America and the PAc seems to have increaed the SSTs in the PDO region. We allknow better then to assume that will last. Even a stout + PDO in Novermber can be reversed quickly with the right weather pattern over the NE Pac.

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice

Not sure where to post this, but looks like a nice cool period may be arriving later next week, associated with the steep decline in the NAO combined with the NW Pac ridge. EPS is very robust, not to mention the wave 6/7 NH global pattern at that time.

@bluewave I thought that the correlation to NAO blocking in the summer months was warmer along the East Coast? I see Don S mentionuing this , but maybe it is more so the -AO he is referring to. Is this event forecasted to happen based simply on the extreme drop in the NAO ? The EPS is rather bullish for cooler weather as you mentioned later next week. Looks like this -NAO dive is a consequence from the heat displaced from the recent all time records certain sections of Europe. I believe Judah Cohen posted on that .

Some interesting possibilities ahead.....

Very frustrated. Just got back frm a day trip the beach and returning home expecting at least some rain, as my area was under a flash flood watch and a severe thunderstorm watch. Nothing at all. Third time this summer under a FFW and zero precip. ( at least up to this time of posting ) All the action well to my South and East.

For those beach goers heads up to possible rip currents. There has been a pesky and eratic long period swell. Nothing too crazy, but heard there were several rescues the past several days. From mount holly RIP CURRENTS... The rip current forecast today is similar to yesterday and will be dependent on the swell period. The swell period has been varying between 5-15 seconds the last couple of days. When the longer period takes over, the swell is only 1-2 feet, but when the period is shorter, the swell is higher at 2-3 feet. With the variable conditions, we will have a moderate risk for dangerous rip current formation today.

Crazy thimes are these. What this means as signs to the NH I have no idea, but a very impressive event event down there.

Goes to show you how hard the NAO is to predict, no one really knows, including the models and even the impressive EPS.

To follow up on the -NAO I took this image from the NY City forum, again courtesy of bluewave, where I asked him a question about the changing cold pool and how it has warmed. This really shows the dramatic change in the Atlantic SSTs over the past couple months. Also, look to the Pac and the Gulf of Alaska, as you know Alaska has been seeing incredible warmth. maybe lead to a +PDO. This is only a anomaly map, but still very interesting. I recall reading or hearing, a very warm Atlantic in October and November can act like a magnet drawing cold to its source region off of the North Amercian continet later in October and early November. Don't hold me to that as I believe I read it years ago. And, these so called changes can occur on the flip of switch. Similiar to last year.