frd

Secondary cell dropping in as well now Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 750 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 201 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-050030- Kent-New Castle-Cecil-Kent- 750 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE... NORTHWESTERN KENT...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 750 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hollywood Beach, or 8 miles east of Aberdeen Proving Ground, moving east at 20 mph. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Middletown, Clayton, Cecilton, Warwick, Sassafras, Green Spring, Bohemias Mills, Delaney Corner, Cayots, Massey, Hollywood Beach, Townsend, Galena and Odessa. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cell that hit my area is now warned, exiting DE, and headed across the DE River to Salem County , NJ Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 745 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 DEC003-NJC011-033-050015- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0387.000000T0000Z-190905T0015Z/ New Castle DE-Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ- 745 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN SALEM COUNTIES... At 745 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Middletown, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Bridgeton, Middletown, Alloway, Quinton, Greenwich, Shiloh, Hancocks Bridge, Newport Meadows, Hope Creek, Mount Pleasant, Seabrook Farms and Odessa. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Only a few places within 100 miles of me have it . One is in Elkton , MD., so that is rather close to me . Will be purchasing the Ultra I think. I am excited to try it. Looks like the weather turns cooler for a long while, so will try to get going on this in the next 10 days, the issue is renting the machine, I have not done that yet. The storm tonight would have washed everything away had I over seeded already. Fine line, as you mentioned, between mother nature and rain ( too much too quickly ) and being able to control the water with timed sprinklers .

Got very, very lucky here. Lone cell dropping some heavy rain with winds up to maybe 35 mph...this could open the door for me to over seed now .

So, where is the line of storms that the models had forecasted , I see nothing out there but haze and bugs. Nasty. The trends of wet for the past 18 months have really evaporated the last 6 weeks "SUMMER "

Simply mentioning this as speculation.... but some placed some blame on the QBO phase and trends last winter for the lack follow through from the SSWE.... eh take what you want from that. Also keep in mind that the strat may be more sensitive this year if the SH winter is any clue. Again simple speculation .

Wow this is a surprise, if the progression continues you could make the case that this will help us in terms of high lattitude blocking, and at the least not be a negative. If anything, like you mentioned, neutral is better than extreme positive. And thanks to Mitchnick too .

Fits the pattern of recent Septembers, with maybe not the extreme heat we have experienced recently, certainly the Western Atlantic waters are warm and Sept is normally not a wet month climo- wise. However, I would take a guess and say any real Sept. heat is short-lived. The NE PAc warm pool supports these High pressure visits we are getting and will continue to get for another week. Maybe mid-month warmth followed by a drop again. I don't see any indications of a wetter pattern though. Some modeling a week ago was indicating a cool October.

And so it has started

Is is available most places? I never heard of it but thats not saying much. Is Ultra mean it is heat and drought tolerent ? Thanks

Maybe the last 90 of the summer. And a couple oppurtunities of needed rainfall as well. Your area has done much better than the Mid Atlantic with rainfall in the last 30 to 45 days.

The only green my fescue has is under trees and next to my flower beds, otherwise all is dry and dormant, hopefully not dead. Fungus is not longer a concern. Will await some rain to soften the soil and then get the areator , I am rather confident now the Fall will not be hot but more normal. Some fundamental changes going on now. Also we can hopefully cash in soon on dews at night and the continued lower sun angle and longer nights. I am targeting mid Sept to re seed and over-seed. Good luck with the landscaping and re-seeding.

Certainly seems like a fundamental change has started and is evident in the sensible weather around your area and my area too. Look at the Northern Plains and the summer they have had, you posted on that recently as well. The WAR seems not be as big as of a player as many would have thought , at least so far. The trend seems to be Eastern troughs. The Warm blob is a driver for sure. I am planning now to over seed my lawn early.

Yes, not too bad. Driving to get coffee seeing the leaf stress, drop off and color change has really started earlier this year. Also more spider webs, big winter incoming .

Last Fall it was there to a degree, and many thought it would last and used that as part of a formula to imply a very snowy Eastern winter. Yes, plus the Nino too. But the warm blob fizzled and was never really a player come Jan and Feb. This ( your chart ) keeps setting newer highs and from a technical chart perspective may even go higher. This with the low solar background state might be fun to watch. To me it implies maybe not a super hot Fall afterall.

@bluewave do you see anything to reverse the trend such as deep low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska or will this manisfestation continue? We are in uncharted warmth there. That chart is really an eye openner.

He does post some interesting data at times but I learned not to totally trust some of his forecasts .... It has already been proven that the SAI and even total North America snowcover and depth do not provide reliable indications of the upcoming winter.

SH very interesting indeed , wonder the implications for the NH winter and the solar min SH may have a chance at only the second all time Major SWE - last time and only time was back in 2002 - hmmm, very interesting i

From Amy

Interesting

Yes, don't forget the eggs too. You might starve to death with the drifts making travel impossible.....

If they call for it enough times it will happen

You are correct it was Tip from the New England that suggested there was so much warm water in the Pac and a general lack of a gradient or I imagine he means forcing possibly. The lack of coupling between ocean and atmosphere caused the desired Nino outcomes to never occur. Not to mention the Nino was very weak. The red flag should have been the Dec + SOI Some even mentioned the waters in the IO, East of Japan and near Aussie as concerns and the High pressure system I think North of Hawaii caused issues too. The raging Pac jet set records last winter, as did the high MJO amp including records for for the time the MJO spent in the warm phases as well. Many of these outcomes were the very opposite of what was forecasted by various weather pros and private mets as well. This is interesting though from Judah that early indications seem to point to a weak PV early on . Same thing happened last Fall. But the killer many thought was the SSWE and the weak Nino and such. Maybe this winter other factors will be the drivers of the pattern, Will be an almost impossible winter to forecast from a seasonal view point. Trust no forecast you hear. You could even make the argument that due to increasing global wamth using pre 2000 analogs are useless. The PV should start to form in the coming days and weeks. Based on the Paul Newman’s website https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html the PV looks to be weaker than normal out of the gate. This may be related to the weak PV last May associated with the Final Warming or the nearly continuous high latitude summer blocking. To be honest I am not sure how significant a weak start to the PV is for the remainder of the PV season, but at least for now I expect an interesting upcoming PV season. There was a paper that received some publicity how low Arctic sea ice does not favor colder mid-latitude winters while I was on vacation. I haven’t had a chance to read the paper yet but maybe I will share some of my own thoughts in an upcoming blog.

This is pretty cool and thought provoking.

from bluewave, very interesting <<< The IOD just rose above +1 for the first time since 2015. So there are currently cooler SST departures near Indonesia. Be interesting to see if some semblance of this pattern lingers into winter and can result in less Maritime Continent MJO forcing. But the warmth near and west of the dateline has been associated with a more active MJO in general. Also the very strong +NPM with near record SST warmth from just off the equator and northward.  >>>>