frd

Yep, he is, the walker cell and the Nino and Nina effects were mentioned by him. Seems like a combo that could yield an earlier winter setting in and a colder Nov and Dec than many envision although he did say we need to wait a month to see how things go. I see a change in the IO as well. Need to see who posted that, it might have been bluewave. The SST NH configuration does look rather interesting at this time.

As I mentioned weeks ago there are some things happening that may favor a good winter and maybe not even an overall warm Fall. I came across this today by HM :

Did you read the bottom that bascially is summary : Believe from the minimum and some things happen almost in real time as you get solar forcing ( not cause and effect but implied by observation the article mentions ) see here The analysis confirmed previous results of Woollings et al. (2010) that showed increased DJF blocking frequency around periods of solar minimum, although these results should be treated with caution since the analysed data span only 58 years. The maximum response (with 99% statistical significance; see Figure 8(b)) was found to occur over Iceland at 1‐year lag, i.e. it does not display the 3–4 year lag seen in the SLP results. The DJF‐averaged response was found to come primarily from the late‐winter (JF) response, with no statistically significant influence seen in December. This suggests that the early‐winter influence on the NAO via ocean feedbacks described above, which presumably influence the storm track, has little influence on the frequency of blocking. The late‐winter influence lends support to earlier studies that suggest a stratosphere–blocking interaction (Woollings et al., 2010) since the stratosphere also responds to solar forcing almost immediately (Gray et al., 2013; Mitchell et al., 2015). However, we note that such short response lags (and the additional uncertainty in lag‐times introduced by uncertainty in which solar index is best employed) mean that it is not possible to categorically distinguish cause from effect using only observational data. While the late‐winter surface signal in SLP and blocking may be a response to top‐down stratospheric forcing, it is also possible that the stratosphere could simply be responding to the change in blocking frequency caused by some other influence mechanism, since blocking events are associated with increased wave propagation into the stratosphere and have been identified as precursors to disturbances of the stratospheric vortex in winter. Well‐designed model experiments are needed to clarify this.

I suggest you read that article that @EasternLIposted it is very interesting . Just finished reading it myself. Seems after for the -NAO is backed up even though the time period is not that long . As for the AO the article really focused on the NAO domain.

He is still no doubt bitter from last winter. Can't blame him........ah the weather is the weather and many times is simply too complex to predict. But indeed, there have been very long time periods in the past where winters were horrible in terms of snowfall. We have been spoiled since 2000. We will get another HECS , however patience is required.

@EasternLI Got burned big time on this last year. Hate to even mention it but this is a weather forum and it may be relevant to to the upcoming winter. Or maybe not . Wondering outloud whether there is any relationship to the upcoming NH Winter that we can get from looking at the SH Winter that is happening, or has happened. Of particular note is the PV and what is happening down there. Although personally my desire is to have a great PAC and a negative AO here. Feeling good, along with some others, that we are cycling towards a rather significant -NAO winter in the next couple years. Could be delayed and impact winter 20-21 or maybe it is this year, winter 19-20 . This may be of interest :

When you also look at the solar minimum and add a 12 month lag period there are winters that perform better after the actual solar bottom in terms of a -NAO. Although the SST signal this year shows we may be due for an averaged -NAO during the period from Dec to March it may actually end up being next winter that we benefit we benefit even though the cold pool signal argues it is this winter that may feature a -NAO. Even sensible weather at this point is a bit different as well. Feel this Fall may be a bit differ from last year in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. I read the Accuu Weather forecast and they predict a warm Fall and describes the NE section of the US to be pleasent. Hmm Previous Falls we lingered warm well into October due to the robust WAR and warm Atlantic SSTs. Again not comfortable with how that plays out this year. There are many drivers that are below the radar that could cause this Fall and the upcoming winter to cause the sensible weather to be dramatically different than what many folks may forecast. Even climo may not be the best way to go. I like your posts @raindancewx .

There are some indications via the UkMet and ECM long range seasonal SST forecasts that there may be an enhanced Pacific jet similiar to what we had last year that always either prevented , or shortned the duration of any West Coast or NW Canadian ridging. The High pressure location in the Pac near Hawaii also messed up things last year by encouraging the WAR. Without something to slow or buckle the jet combined with a AO and NAO blocking ( a - AO being the first desired if significant, followed by the - NAO we will not have a good winter at all IMHO ) I take some relief that the seasonal models do not show any significant - NAO at this time because last year up to the very end they forecasted it and never materialized; so maybe this year without it portrayed in the long range seasonal guidence it will be a good thing and they will be wrong and we do get periods of blocking to help us here in the Mid Atlantic . For the record I rather have an awesone Pac and I dont care what the Atlantic side does .

The decline continues

I remember like yesterday the great WPVI tv 6 weatherman Jim O'Brien talking about this event ..... was a biggie indeed , not sure if this was one that stalled and or did a looped , but the satelite images were classic even for way back then.

Some of the many cars that found themselves almost totally buried by the Blizzard of ‘79. (Baltimore Sun files, Feb. 20, 1979) They were only calling for 8 inches. We ended up with nearly two feet.The snow began falling the night of Feb. 18, 1979, and while it was coming down steadily, forecasters didn’t seem unduly alarmed. The National Weather Service predicted 6 inches of snow in Baltimore, up to 8 inches south and west of the Beltway. Brutal, to be sure, but not spectacularly bad.In fact, the bigger concern was the distressingly frigid temperatures. The mercury dipped to 3 degrees at BWI Airport on the 18th, at least the sixth February day on which a record low was set. The low temperature was a balmy 7 degrees in the city, matching a low that had been set in 1903.On man, was it cold. But at least the snow seemed destined to stay within reason.Hah! “22-inch snowstorm buries area” read the headline in the Feb. 20 Baltimore Sun. Schools and businesses were closed, some 80 percent of the city’s bus fleet was stuck on side streets or in snow drifts. Mayor William Donald Schaefer declared a 7 p.m. curfew and the national guard was called in to help maintain order. For the first time “in anyone’s memory,” the Evening Sun, which had been founded in 1910, was not published on Feb. 19.At the state police barracks in Waterloo, troopers pooled their money to buy insulin and needles for a family trapped in their Anne Arundel County home and “commandeered” a snowplow to help deliver the supplies.“You must be crazy to be out here,” one city man shouted as he tried making his way through the snow.No one disagreed.

Good points here by Todd More I didn't say I don't think we'll have blocking this winter, just that the summer-winter correlation is non-existent

Good thread in this link

Maybe 02 - 03 During the 1960's there were some good winters with blocking , but not sure about the Pac during that decade.

1993 being talked about by some mets as a upcoming analog . And no, not JB. I dont follow JB anymore .

Well, the stronger Nino events are less wishy washy and are easier to forecast in the long range . Weaker events are more prone to less accurate forecasts due to the Nino event possibly weakening in the heart of winter. ( even though some will tell you there is a lag effect and a weakening may not mean much. I disagree with that line of thinking ) When you ask most here in the forum the type/strength of Nino is key to the likelyhood of above normal winter snowfall. Weaker Nino events are not that great. Stronger Ninos raise the bar and can yield bigger exceptional snowfall events. Moderate Nino seem to be the best indicator of the potential for above normal climo snowfall in the Mid Atlantic , or to be even more specific maybe moderate to strong and West Based. I believe Matt and Ian once stated you roll the dice with a Strong Nino, but that can support MECS and even HECS . You could get 75 % of more of a season's snowfall from that type of event. Example the 30 inch snowfall in the winter of 2016 in a otherwise pathetic snowfall season in this area.

You have some interesting options on the table.... Do we have a positive PDO. Does it last into the winter .... What are the consequences of the dramatic sea ice melting and recent summer of warm season blocking ..... do we get the winter -NAO Does the Nino persists ( granted some have stated it is gone already others argue the fact ) and where do we get the tropical forcing this winter ..... Does NH blocking flourish in the winter with a back drop of neurtral Pac SSTs What will be the effect of the continued qiuet sun and the continuation of the solar decline as we eventually hit the bottom of the solar minimum..... Some feel based on the Pac SST and SSTs in the NH in general indicate a 1993 Brr...... winter. What about moisture then, without a Nino would it be dry? Or do we go to a stormy winter with frequent snows based on an active storm tracks and coastals ? A lot to consider as we look towards the winter. Bottom line be very careful and never trust the seasonals. Even analogs may not be as effective as we are in a changing climate here, and what worked as a analog in the 1960s probaly would not work today.

Even recently, I think last month, we once again set a new record for the Pac jet. Not sure when it will calm down.

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus Pioneer model you get a D minus I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " . As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

Hmm, well the Pac state was interesting that Fall and Winter , and certainly the QBO was not an issue when the winter produced some noteworthy snowfalls. I recall several surprise snowfalls as well along the coastal plain. ( near the beaches of Ocean City, MD. and Fenwick , DE for example. It just wanted to snow that winter. Whether the Pacific base state combined with the low solar background and worked in tandem, not sure. Now as to the 1995 hurrican season and using that as a analog way too early to say, as 1995 was an active year.base chage with the NAo You have to ponder whether we are entering a base state change regarding the NAO, if so, it could be interesting if it persists into the winter. 1995 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and activity in 1995 began on the next day with the formation of Hurricane Allison on June 2. It was a well-above average season in which 21 tropical depressions formed, 19 of which attained tropical storm status, and 11 of these attained hurricanestatus. A quick look at the winter of 1995-96 Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain.

I read from a decent science based site that the min can occur anywhere from July 2019 to March 2020. Not sure the QBO will be in the same phase as late 09 and 10. I think that period was East and this year may be West? A lot to consider, not just one element, but still very fascinating to see what happens as we enter the Fall.

Euro seasonals are trash but OK ........ still waiting on cold and snow....... sorry Maue I disagree on any value from these forecasts

I will look into it @showmethesnowand let you know if I find a good answer.

As you know, we can live here with a good Pac and a not so good Atlantic. The very best Pac patterns can really produce for us here and be cold as well. The pattern over the NW North America and the PAc seems to have increaed the SSTs in the PDO region. We allknow better then to assume that will last. Even a stout + PDO in Novermber can be reversed quickly with the right weather pattern over the NE Pac.

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice