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Meanwhile Alaska is melting ....... below ground perma frost is thawing quickly. More records set this month there in terms of high temps. And the waters to the West and SW are very warm.

No rain, more heat later in the week, 88 to 90 plus. Vast areas of the East very dry. Ocean temps remain very, very warm.

Without help from the tropics no hope for rainfall. Actually, dry feedback you could say is winning out , even though the powerful summer sun is waning. No dew just sticky and nasty with bugs !!! What looked like relief in the long term I am not so confident. Globally it looks warm too . Again this decade has always had warm falls, so for us to be warm to November is a high probability. If a sudden change to this outcome would happen, maybe it could be regarded as a tip off to the winter, that would be looking at the cup half full.

A further look at the seasonal

I hate seasonal models but if you want a feeling this far out it looks pretty grim for snow in the Mid Atlantic. Seems the general atmospheric set up portrayed by the various models and super model blends look to favor a Western Winter and cold and snowy up in the Great Plains. Maybe the continued tendency for a warmer climate is making it harder and harder for winters to deliver below 40 North. A warm snow-less winter in these parts would not surprise me, nor would a complete failure of the models leading to a more traditional cold and snowier winter in the East.

Some cool info on the warm blob. The article is not hyping , but just bringing up some comparisons and why the warm blob may simply fizzle away. https://www.forbes.com/sites/allenelizabeth/2019/09/05/another-warm-blob-is-forming-in-the-pacific-ocean/#78dc8d9a14af

Don it is interesting that the Weather Channel through weather.com has October and November as being below average in the NE and December near to above. While Accuweather is going for mainly pleasant conditions . https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2019-09-11-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-wsi As winter begins, climate models suggest warmer than average conditions across much of the country. The Southwest will remain much above average, while the Southeast may be near or slightly below average. It remains possible that signals from atmospheric blocking could outweigh any impacts from atmospheric El Niño, which would result in considerably cooler temperatures across the eastern half of the country. In addition, an area of well above average ocean temperatures off the West Coast, known as the "blob," may also have an impact on temperatures across the country late this year. "While the blob is but one factor this winter, the unusually warm waters in the northeastern Pacific do seem to correlate with colder winters" in the Midwest and Northeast, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. The blob typically is more impactful later in the winter, but could have some impact in December. While Accuweather has the Fall advertised as mainly pleasant in the NE. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-us-fall-forecast/70008922 AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said, “There are probably going to be people at the beaches for a longer duration this year compared to other years.” By October, a cool down will be noticeable across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes, but it won’t signal any early wintry conditions for the regions. He said, “I think the highest elevations of the Northeast will have the best chances for autumn snow as we get into mid-season, but I think we’re going to be waiting a long time for significant snow that’s going to stick.”

Wonder if the action of the -SOI helps turn us wetter in October? Read about an eventual jet extension and then a + PNA but we are very dry here. You too, as I see in that indicator map. Seems that the tropics will not help us.

Nice to see, regardless of outcome at this time of year.

Dive continues 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Sep 2019 1013.56 1016.10 -28.88 -10.70 -8.55 12 Sep 2019 1014.46 1016.25 -24.42 -10.34 -8.18 11 Sep 2019 1015.25 1014.90 -11.70 -9.91 -7.91 10 Sep 2019 1014.70 1014.25 -11.11 -9.63 -7.72 9 Sep 2019 1013.50 1014.80 -21.51 -9.19 -7.49 8 Sep 2019 1013.95 1015.15 -20.92 -7.80 -7.03 7 Sep 2019 1014.10 1014.35 -15.27 -6.34 -6.71 6 Sep 2019 1014.09 1013.55 -10.58 -5.17 -6.55 5 Sep 2019 1013.81 1013.60 -12.54 -4.27 -6.55 4 Sep 2019 1013.73 1013.90 -14.79 -3.66 -6.54 3 Sep 2019 1013.36 1013.85 -16.70 -3.23 -6.43 2 Sep 2019 1012.96 1014.15 -20.86 -3.06 -6.33 1 Sep 2019 1013.31 1013.40 -14.32 -2.99 -6.29 31 Aug 2019 1013.01 1013.35 -11.90 -3.00 -6.32 30 Aug 2019 1012.61 1014.40 -20.70 -2.85 -6.22 29 Aug 2019 1014.44 1015.30 -15.05 -2.05 -6.07 28 Aug 2019 1015.17 1014.90 -8.19 -1.22 -6.10 27 Aug 2019 1015.16 1013.85 -1.88 -0.64 -6.12 26 Aug 2019 1014.85 1013.20 0.18 -0.61 -6.17 25 Aug 2019 1014.30 1013.55 -5.28 -0.40 -6.33 24 Aug 2019 1015.25 1014.80 -7.10 -0.03 -6.48

Rather quiet ......... not sure I believe the CM predictions.

The warm pool near the date line as modeled supports this, so no surprise there.

More to come......

Will be interesting to see if we can buckle or slow the Pac jet this Winter and late Fall. Last winter several records were broken in regards to the West to East jet stream speed. Even happened in the spring as well.

@C.A.P.E.this I was unaware of, each model has its own bias when it comes to the forecasts of the early PV . Some go strong and cold , others weak and not as cold. Also, each model has inherent noise and this needs to be taken into account as well.

The atmosphere at least seems more Nino vs Nina, but general support for either could be made I imagine. The summer at 500 looks like a typical Nino, as bluewave had posted that in the NYC thread a couple weeks ago. The current SOI is and has been negative, and the IOD is the most positive in years, but as you mentioned other related indicators are more Nina esque. When I read a post by HM a few weeks ago I felt he almost seemed to suggest that the upcoming winter may bring a combo of Nino and Nina like forcing. Each exerting its influences in various Pacific drivers. The walker cell will be very interesting as will be the BDC, not to mention the amplitude of the MJO. As you posted at 33andrain recently, it will also be of interest to see any effects in the tropics from the recent SH SSWE. Seems there are implications in the NH from significant SH weather events.

Hmm... This sucks !! But, beach weather looking great !!!!

The El Nino theme continues

The weather showing a clue maybe....... certainly in the realm of possibilities and no reason why can not cycle back into a -NAO cycle in the winter. I will not believe the seasonal models, but I feel the winter does indeed have potential. Also, keying on the potential of some sort of rapid shift to cold and snow sooner than many would anticipate.

Had last years Nino behaved like a real Nino not a Nina we would have gotten a lot more snow . A very strange Nino as well, one without the normal +PNA. We averaged a -PNA . We might as well had a Nina. Meanwhile the IOD is the most positive in years and the SOI continues its dive. Wonder whether typical Nino characteristics continue into the Fall.

October is the new September around these parts.

There is research on the topic , sometimes it is discovered that the min has already occurred. I read that there is a benchmark piece of data that lends rather robust proof as to the forecasting point of the solar min. Predicting the bottom is not as easy as many folks think. There are even studies of the effect of the solar min on the NAO region and I believe even the ocean SSTs and weather implications in the NW Atlantic. This winter will be a tough one to forecast. Hey, aren't they all. Beware of years like last year, where the consensus and group think were proven wrong, machines included.

Ponder this, a weak Nino maybe in early 2020

Just one piece of the puzzle. Seem as though we still not have reached the min bottom yet.

Wonder about the association with the min and the implications