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This is another interesting tidbit when used as a roll over to the months of November and even more so December Additional resource link from HM http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/Data.html

I know, but just one part of the drivers for the upcoming winter. I am interested more so because of IOD combined with other features. I don't see those years as analogs regardless.

Not sure what the Euro shows but the WPC has this . Seems the trend the last 5 months has been for NE PA and NW NJ ( and the upper NE ) to get most of the good rains. That map makes me very sad.

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.

I think I understand the implied meaning

Still climbing Up

Great question. I know a while back there was a post about the Fall temps in the East, and the above normal and record temps were almost in a perfect orientation along the Western periphery of the WAR. This makes a lot of sense because this decade the Fall WAR has been robust and the SST much above normal. Also, taken into account the higher dew points keeping overnight lows higher. Seems that the new normal is the less hot, versus below climo. The case can be made that September is now the 4th full fledged month of real summer. The theory I heard was low sea ice causes a delay in cooling off things to the North of us and hence the summer season is extended but then that delayed reaction combined with the tendency of blocking to develop later in the winter has caused the month of March to be more wintry than December. And hence sometimes April being very cold. On a side note, a case can be made this year that the hybrid lag of the Nino and the atmospheric Nina might lead to a an early start to winter.

From bluewave over at the NYC thread ...... simply remarkable, the ever increasing temps for Sept. Even though this represents his area I am sure it holds for ours as well.

Seems that evolution would support snowfall over large portions of Canada. Here is the EPS for fun.

Will be interesting to see the effect on the + IOD

Glad to see he is man enough to mention his darling Pioneer model busted badly as did he. Thats a plus, because folks remember . << . Naturally, the only model to see cold is the model that hits the cold when it comes, the Pioneer. Last year it busted badly in the Southeast, and I spent half the winter explaining what went on. However, what I did see was a lot of cold in the pattern. No surprise it looks quite cold given the analogs. >>

@showmethesnow A interesting read regarding. Some seem to think a SSW event, and even a split, is close at hand. But, as you mention showme, and correctly, that is not the case. I bring this over for your reading pleasure form 33andrain - it does hit on a few things of interest. Report post Posted 12 hours ago I am by no means an an expert on anything, but I have two things to say right off the bat: 1. First mistake is looking at a GFS Op run beyond day five (lmao) 2. This is NOT an image that portends an impending split, in my humble opinion HOWEVER, you did make me curious, so in the two seconds I had at work I took a peek at things. All I had time for was to pull up a H5 anomaly graphic for the month of September (see below). Two key regions where studies have shown enhanced success at vertical heat flux transport disrupting/weakening the vortex (Wave-1 flux) are (roughly) the NAO/EPO/WPO domains. If substantially anomalous ridging can become quasi-permanently established in these regions for periods in excess of one to two weeks (depending on the strength of the anomalies), enhanced vertical fluxes can begin taking their toll on disrupting the vortex, leading to stretching, and in strong/successful cases, fracturing, generally at lead times of 4-6 weeks post flux initiation. Take a look below - I do not see any substantial vortex disruption based on that look. If anything, I see general maintenance/strengthening in accordance with climatology. However, I would need time to look at other sources to see how successful any fluxes have been to date, and I honestly just don’t have it. I also do not know what guidance looks like over the next couple of weeks to add insight on whether or not we see increased perturbation via Wave-1. In this case, I defer to @Isotherm for further insight/correction to my simplistic understanding.

Of course, that goes without saying. Lets see what the next few weeks bring in terms of any trends or precursors to early season PV effects. Last winter there were documented events in certain areas ( precursors ) that indicated the PV would be susceptible to a weakening or even a split. We all know what happened and some blame that event for ruining the winter. Well, that's a different story, and no need to rehash it. A lot happened that could be brought up. Meanwhile lets see what happens here next, more so for October , but still transporting heat North and also expect some effects on the Northern Jet with these systems as HM alludes to this morning. Would think North Atlantic wave breaking as well in October .

I actually have no opinion or high expectations for the winter ahead after last year and in this new era of warming. Personally a cold PV at this point would not bother me in the least. Lets grow the the ice and show fields up North and put down snow cover and see where it takes us. Its way too early to offer any idea about the upcoming winter. Things will change and skill is not that high. I know you know that showme , but many folks put too much faith in super long range forecasts.

I like the sound of this from HM

Some indications that we might get more active rainfall-wise from several weather developments, some from the Atlantic side and some from Asia/Pac side. Not to mention much cooler air to go with the rainfall.

Two rain drops here, down the road 1 mile a legit shower, looking at the radar never fails, the same line moving East through Salem County NJ. is getting stronger and "wetter " Always seems to happen like that.

Looks like real and extended Fall weather may be on the way after the heat blast next Wednesday.

For those desiring a weaker early season PV. and this ........

Year around beach saddles, yeah baby.

HM was talking about the IOD, and wow to this spike up.

With the IOD at records highs it is one of the main drivers currently . The UKMET keeps it positive all winter. Although it does decline in time. Makes you wonder whether the impact of it can indeed produce an early winter arrival this year.

From a simply persistence point of view, you would have to think the boring and dry period we are having would likely reverse in time, and hopefully coincides with the colder months ahead.

Wonder if maybe the advance posting of the Watch is related to the wording, given the focus on the possible extreme severity of the storm's potential and the wording about setting a new benchmark. Of note to campers and hunters maybe getting caught off guard. Pretty crazy wording ! Extreme impacts possible, including to power infrastructure including power lines resulting in widespread power outages, agricultural interests; outdoor recreational interests including camping and hunting activities; and travel. Widespread significant tree damage is possible with heavy wet snow and strong winds impacting trees with foliage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This early-season winter storm and/or blizzard has the potential to set a new benchmark for snow accumulations, cold temperature

Hoping the QBO continues its decline, seems it may have stalled out in September, possibly related to the SH SSWE and the BDO. Something like this happened before and it then resumed its decline by year end. However, this is a negative at this time, and it really needs to resume its decline to have an effect for the upcoming winter. Some additional comments within this post griteater‏ @griteater Sep 18e The transition from + to - QBO is dropping from the upper stratosphere toward the middle stratosphere. It needs to drop quickly now in order to classify the upcoming winter as -QBO (to go along with the low solar) griteater‏ @griteater Sep 18 More It could be on delay yes, but there’s still a bit of time for it to drop sharply to end the year. In theory, it would be better for winter blocking if it drops sharply (with solar min) 1 reply0 retweets3 likes