frd
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Everything posted by frd
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They have gone cold and snowy in the East the last three years and have done poorly. This year the forecast from BAMM WX is a warmer than usual winter, and below normal snowfall. They believed in the extreme - EPO forecasts from a couple years back and that did not work out. Have to see how the season ends and whether they will be correct.
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Ah, its the @40/70 Benchmark Mid Atlantic storm set-up. Two bad its two weeks out, however, moving in the right direction for sure. We shall be tracking in early 2024
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I think they run daily now.
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This might effect how fast temps get back to normal and dare I say below normal up North after Jan 1 st. The cryosphere is looking sick. Decadal low snow extent.
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Read Canada will have + 20 departures, thats insane and sad.
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Some are mentioning the Jet Extension will cause the - PDO to become more positive during the next three weeks. Are you considering this possible outcome?
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Whatever gets us snow . But seriously, maybe the transition starts in early to mid January and then improves from there similar to 1965-66. Looking for improvements in the Pac, but also the HL and the NAO region by mid Jan. As you said, if we do not start to see things improve in the long range guideance by the first of the year then we can really start to worry, however currently I remain hopeful.
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Another modeling failure. Persistence greater than modeling. Looks like well into Jan. regarding any chance at all for meaningful snowfall. Extreme Pacific Trough regime well in Jan.
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ensemble mean PT index at 1.5 sigma at a 2 week lead is wild according to Dr Simmon Lee. Last December we were in a robust Greenland High regime from December 2 to December 19th then we flipped to a Pacific trough regime for the last week of December. The PT regime is associated with atmospheric rivers into the West Coast and very warm temperatures across the continent. Going to take time to recover from this. Nino Decembers are warm and in general recent Decembers have trended warmer. But the current PT regime is rather remarkable.
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The last three Decembers, at this time of the month, North America snowfall was robust. Then as late December arrived North America snowfall coverage declined rapidly. The pattern after that drop off was not conducive for sustained cold or snowfall. What is interesting now is that snowfall extent in North America is at decadal lows. Say what you want about about El Ninos, that they tend to produce above average snowfall in our region. As for tempertures, air masses are not frigid, just cold enough to snow. I am interested in seeing how NA snow cover trends in the weeks ahead. Certainly I would imagine to get seasoanl temps here, we would like to see a better cryosphere in our source regions to deliver cold air. Looks like it is going to take a while.
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MJO phase significance changes based on the three month period you are in.
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Interesting post by @bluewave One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warm phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8-1-2, that is also a warmer signal from December into January with an El Niño. New run Old run
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Interesting MJO read from Don S: <The latest MJO forecasts show a slightly longer passage through Phases 4-6 than had been shown two days earlier (Bluewave has discussed the role of sea surface temperature anomalies in foreshadowing such an outcome): The Week 3 CFSv2 (12/18-24) and ECMWF (12/18-25) are very warm in the East (>3°C/5.4°F above normal). Were blocking to break down, the possibility of one or more days in the 60s in the region (maybe even 70° in the Baltimore-Washington area) during that timeframe would increase markedly. Beyond Week 3, the ECMWF weeklies still show cooler than normal readings in the East to start January. However, skill levels beyond two weeks are low. The latest ENSO data shows that a basinwide strong El Niño event continues. The latest ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C. The latest ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C. The AAM is poised to go positive in coming days and then strongly positive through at least late December. A positive AAM often indicates patterns consistent with El Niño events. El Niño cases favor warm Decembers in the East, though there are exceptions. With winter largely sleeping through the medium-term, New York City's and Philadelphia's record streaks without their having seen 1" or more daily snowfall will continue for the foreseeable future. New York City's ongoing streak will very likely surpass the existing record streaks at Newark (661 days) and Trenton (664 days).>
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Like clockwork. However, I believe phase 7 is the warmest MJO phase. Just need to move forward, which appears we will. Even though the modeling has trended warmer sensing the changes in the Pac, along with a more negative PNA versus neutral, is that the AO continues to be forecasted very negative, and remaining so for the medium term, rather unusual, but bodes well for us very late month and in Jan. and Feb.
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Last year we had an extreme - AO and a extreme - NAO that resulted in no snow for my region. The Pac is king in my opinion Even Don S thought we would be getting a huge snow event along with Bluewave, and nothing ever happened of consequence. The extreme - AO is normally a great indocator of snow potential, but recently that indice has not held to its historical importance and value when predicting a window for a SECS.
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The usual warmth starting around the December 18 th to 20 th has been a fixture in the East the last several years. When you look at Atlantic ocean temps and the very warm Fall we have had it is easy to see that September is a summer month and Decembers are generally more fallish lately than wintery. On the flip side, March will be the wild card. Looking at the latest data regarding the MJO and its progression and Nino SSTs it appears December overall should start to be modeled warmer and the holiday period that had some potential may not work out that way. Sounds like a typical Nino.
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May trigger a SSWE Not that we need it, but it is interesting. Latest AO observation forecast looks favorable for an early season weak polar vortex.
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Amplitude might be trender higher in recent MJO forecasts. Late month continues to look interesting.
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Still thinking late month has potential.
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Cold initially favoring Asia and Europe, then as the MJO progresses, along with favorable changes in Pac., arctic airhopefully makes it way towards us near the holidays, along with increased odds of storminess. Expansive cold centered near December 9 th over Europe and Asia.
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Pac jet intensifies near Japan and causes the previously modeled Western ridge to go poof. Again the very fast Pac flow overpowers. This goes back to conversations from 2018-19 regarding the Western Pac super warm pool , causing increased warmer MJO phases, which possibly last longer. Plenty of times the last several winters where the fast Pac flow erroded Western ridge/ + PNAs, and also flooded Canada with Pac puke airmasses. Hopefully as we go deeper into the winter season this concern may reduce, allowing a more typical Nino Jan. and Feb to take hold.
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More realistic potential versus the never correct Euro Control run.
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Wow, an area along and West of the lower Eastern Shore with 70 % probability of above normal snowfall. Our area firmly in the 40 % probability of above normal snowfall. Looks hopeful.
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SECSyyyyy Me like !!!
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SSTs of Nino region 4 have really increased recently. This Nino is still ramping up.
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