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Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East. Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps, but also below normal precip. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

Annual Christmas period warm up may not happen this year. Would break tradition going back many years. Most encouraging is the pattern forecased later month, but even more is not seeing the rapid rise in the AO and snow cover is not going to be eroded in the source regions such as in years past.

As for the AO, it has been closer to normal, at times going negative. I am more concerned with the Pac for our chances of cold and snow in the Mid.Atlantic.

By that time we here in the lowlands are in a better climo spot.

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse. Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH.

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Does the Euro bias of burying energy in the SW still exist after all these years ?

Would think a clipper is one good option, in addition to what you mentioned.

More of a concern if the winds were really sustained from the East for a long period of time. But, yes presently the Atlantic SSTs have been above normal for some time this Fall. + 2 to + 6 degrees F. Of note, the great Blizzard of 2003 even turned to sleet here at the end, because of 1,000 mile fetch of ENE winds coming off the off the Atlantic at 35 to 45 mph.

I believe the Euro is over-rated. Have to look at verification scores, but in the past ten years I believe the GFS, and its ensembles, tend to do better in the Northern stream backdrop.

Not the first time strong highs up North did not funnel in colder air to our region. However, maybe that will change with future model runs, as snow cover is increasing up North while the NAO is not going crazy positive.

Fits @psuhoffman analog set for this coming winter. Expect the cold, but most were not snowy years.

Having a decent source region is something we have lacked for a long time. Also, SE Canada is going to have a large increase in snow cover over the next couple weeks.

The most you can determine might be a favorable window. Not too mention, but a Nina with an active Northern jet is extremely difficult to model in the long range. Expect the unexpected.

In past Decembers when it was cold, we tended not to cash in on the cold. However, the chill will lend to the holiday season. There is still potential beyond the 10 day period, I like the window from Dec. 7 th to the 10 th.

This image looks like the XXX weather model porn we had this past Jan., which was showing an historic cold and snow pattern for the East. Ironic, if this December delivers cold and snow when most had little hopes for this winter, let alone December which tyically is not our climo peak. Time will tell.

Trends continue for the late month transition to much colder, and possibly active as well.

Totals going down.

Thought Ninas were front loaded.

Very close to my area obs

Checked temps at 11:00 PM , 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM - seems coldest part of the night was near 3:00 AM here, then temps went up at several nearby stations. No hard freeze here and minor frost. Low was 31 degrees at near 3: 00 AM I believe.

@CAPE doing anything tonight due to the possible freeze , as in protecting your new grass, or is it established now ? Some folks were talking about watering the lawn at sunset tonight which add 2 to 4 degrees of heat to the grass canopy reducing the odds of killing grass seedlings. I believe I read once new grass is over 3 inches, and has been mowed twice, that 30 degrees F is not an issue, ( some ag folks say even 20 degrees F is not an issue ) meanwhile root growth continues into December.

Surprised to see that.

Low of 37 degrees here. Noticed the ground at the large school campus I take my greyhound to is extremely hard, due to soil moisture level currently at 17.62%. Can not remember is being so dry, even for October in these parts for many, many years.