frd

They made it here, as it is very nice outside presently with a breeze and a passing shower, mostly cloudy skies. Tomorrow back to reality, in a bad way.

Raining here currently, breezy with temp drop to 80. Avoided one day of the heat.

84 presently, as cloud cover has put somewhat of a lid on temps, watching several cells to my far NW gradually moving SE Southern NJ and Delaware beach goers must be saying, where is the sun. Also, interesting are several boundaries being pushed out by various storms in Southern and eastern PA, all interacting with each other. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Storms forming North of Reading, PA. at this time. Would keep on eye on this for areas in the extreme NE part of the forum.

That MCS is trending a bit more South recently. Interesting to watch for sure.

Pretty cool cloud animation from the MSC up North presently, the fanning out of the high clouds in the southern portion of the complex reminds me of the exhaust cirrus from an deeply intensifying hurricane. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Some activity up there currently.

Uptick in cloud cover here recently, even saw a stray shower on the radar NW of here and a boundary near the beaches and in lower DE.

Thats what I was referring to, pretty cool . Never seen that before over the years.

Crazy Yin-Yang storm image from the cell near Holly Hill Estates MD, crazy time loop.

Wow, line kind of split, but mostly went poof. Ok, it weakened, and just a trace here so far. All that rushing around from lawn care and weeding the garden for nothing.

Landscaping now with Gatorade in hand. Today if you are outside working you needs extra hydration and electrolytes.

Not only hotter, but more moist and humid as dew points reach the 90 th percentile, or greater, over a vast area of the US.

Lack of sunshine also leads to other issues such as mildews, various plant and lawn fungus, garden issues, plant blights, etc., and seasonal depression issues for some. Its so old now, I rather have sun and a heat versus a swamp and no sun for weeks. Far less sun versus clouds the last 90 days.

Early AM dog walk with a DP of 71, soupy and misty.

.20 rain last night here.

Incoming line in the distance for the Northern Eastern shore. Should hold together.

What does GFS show. Thought Euro ran several degrees too high, but still we roast.

I expect surf zone temps to be above normal by this time. Good surfing day might be this Friday with left over swell, incoming afternoon high tide and offshore winds, yippee !

This progression might indeed happen, heat mid week, followed by a couple days of relative cooling , then a heat wave next week ( worse North of us ) and then moderation again, matching the global wind progressions. Note the worst of the heat moving back West by days 14 to 15.

.01 of rain last night. Have to water the garden today

Major heat wave odds are increasing for the Mid Atlantic between June 22 nd and June 25 th.

Day to watch would be late day/evening on this Thursday. Mount Holly AFD snippet below A strong cold front will approach and pass through the region late Thursday and Thursday night. This will spark off afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15% risk for severe weather across portions of the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic on Thursday.

Last couple days here has been mostly clouds and smoke. Only a trace of rain despite higher odds in the forecast thre last 72 hours. Month-to-date rainfall in Middletown, DE only .76 " The crazy high rainfall totals of May over 6 " unlikely to repeat. Might need to water the garden tomorrow, as the overall soil moisture levels have been declining the last 7 days. Long gone are the values above 32 % , in this area soil moisture has declined back below the 5 and 10 year averages of 26 % The clouds and cool air are masking the recent dryness.

Forcing does appear to be quite strong with the deepening trough, so at this point it does seem plausible for there to be at the very least some strong thunderstorms around Thursday afternoon and evening. This is supported quite well by the machine learning guidance by UCAR/NCAR which has a targeted area of severe weather potential over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Will continue to monitor for trends in the guidance but regardless, the general idea that a front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area is consistent with the guidance. Improving weather should return by Friday and into next weekend as high pressure returns.