frd

This a crazy pattern, I believe that low you mentioned went Cyclone Bombing, dropping 51 mb in 24 hours. Just offshore. Plenty of time for change. Seems to be two threats in the long range near the 11 th and the 15/16 th.

This extended period of cold and snow oppurtunities was discussed today by BAMM WX. Appears that Canada will reload later in the month with additional cross polar flow.

Lets see if those higher verification scores are being put on display starting with this cycle from the Euro.

I believe @psuhoffman had mentioned these very anomalous type blocks may weaken and displace faster than the model thinks. However, looking at the indices the block is supported, so patience is required. Long range models show this feature heading more NE in time, coinciding, it appears, to a rising NAO.

Based only on a rising NAO trend reversal the best potential would be between Jan 10 th and Jan 16 th.

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1874549701657412001 An interesting observation with the north pacific heights by day 13-14-15 from the latest EPS... The blocking reloads and is poleward only further west. This will cause the entire lower 48 pattern to essentially step back west a few clicks. Aka the cold and stormy pattern reloads I suspect driven more by the low frequency background state. I tried to show you here on this gif.

Me too

This was totally unexpected I thought

@CAPE is that bow echoe headed towards your location? Looks crazy SW of me on radar.

Possible we may have to wait to score until mid month, versus on the 6 th. Have the block relax and shift somewhat. Wonder whether we could get a HA event when the -NAO relaxes.

Triple WX porn XXX Are we the new Siberia ? Bring it please.

I didn't realize how firmly we are in a Greenland High regime. Tomer states once it eases up snow chances continue past mid month. Here is a graph he posted.

Insane !!!!!!

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1874224450843161052 Some hope from Tomer.

Block is so powerful the weather systems are reversing. Someone posted a couple days ago about vorts near the Baja moving SW, versus East. Crazy models, crazy forecasts. All the ingredients are still there to sort out over the next few days.

Yep, Euro doing very well.

Interesting height fields and representation East of Maine, wondering how the block intereacts and how it evolves. Very important . I believe it was several years ago, maybe more, when our area was forecasted to have an extreme arctic airmass move in from Cenreal Canada, but over the course of six days the Greenland block moved so far West and South the coldest readings were well west into the northern Plains and northern Texas. It was a huge numerical model bust .

Isn't this a step back though?

FYI From https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627 Basically you want to go with the Euro ensemble because : "European Ensemble here with the 500mb pattern, as it continues to have the highest verification scores for the Northern Hemisphere at this range."

We in the game !!!! Welcome back

Great thread on X by Ryan and always pretty images https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1873140721076867134 Seems like 3 arctic shots are in the cards. The gift that keeps giving.

Crazy snow loop by Tomer https://x.com/burgwx/status/1873154546278776971

Inland runner, we need to break the curse here. The past 6 winters have fetaured a combination of coastal scrappers, inland runners and cutters, resulting in crumbs for the lowlands. Well, with a minor exception, or two. Time to move on in the New Year .

What a drastic change. Several ongoing elements such as the SSWE , - NAM state, favorable MJO, and Changes in the PDO. I have heard some mets talking about the cold transitioning to the West by late Jan. Weeklies show different outcome. Ah...the love of weather!

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873079254445178916 Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5 Good news is that the new afternoon European Ensembles still showing everything you want them to show for a mid-range forecast. Also showing a pretty darn decent nor’easter signature around the 9th. Devil’s always in the details though. Still looks like some very exciting times ahead to me That’s it for the 12z runs! More updates later with the 0z cycle!