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I imagine that configuration helps guide colder air towards our area, and may have a role with the PV being on our side of the NH. I have not heard of any SSW events, but we do not need them the way the Pac has been cooperating.

Not really surprising to see that blocking over the top. If you look at the previous rise in the AO during mid Fall, you will see several cycles down ( each one a little more negative ) which happened over a period of about 6 weeks. The peak - AO occurred about 10 weeks after the mid October + peak AO, however, not sure if we repeat that amount of time this go around. I believe we will see a continuation of the AO gradually trending negative again with the - AO peak sometime in March. This should favor another snowfall threat for the Mid Atlantic.

Sounds like you are aligning your thoughts with HM. You guys are on the same page, makes sense if we keep the cold on our side, then we can score in early March.

Not a great look for the lowlands once again, and still not at climo here despite the frigid airmasses, to a degree wasted potential like usual. Its been a lower Delaware type of winter and a SE US winter so far from a climo point of view, maybe March redeems for areas that have missed the biggest snowfalls. At least the snow has stuck around, which is a huge win for winter weather lovers ! Looking at trends on the distant AO it appears we are getting some signals that the - AO and blocking return later in the winter.

11 degrees here. FYI Blizzard warning in Louisiana. Crazy times.

I thought Bethany was a ride

We really need a f ing MECS . So everyone participates.

Unfortunately another bust in Northern Delaware. Pathetic models. 1/2 inch here.

Wet snow starting with a little sleet. Temp starting to drop.

Yep, MECS, followed by a clipper all while the 540 line remains to our South to the very end of the run.

Thanks for your insights. Quick question, what is causing that area of increased snowfall along and to the East of the upper Easternshore, in areas such as Chestertowm , MD. Newark, De, Wilmington, De and my area here in Middletown, De. It has been a feature that has showed itself on and off for the last few days.

You were corrent about amping up and less SE of I 95. Much higher totals NW. This will turn out to be a nothing burger in Delaware.

I do recall from my childhood , way way back , this type of acrtic front has brought surprises in regards to snowfall being higher then what was forecasted days prior. Will be cool to observe over the next several days. Lastly, not sure about the effect on sensible weather, but the NAO is dropping agian, wonder the implications for Sunday night's event and the later system next week. The NAO HA signal is there between the 22 nd and 24 th.

14 degrees here presently. Noticed they treated the roads with snow showers in the forecast later today.

Mount Holly with only a 30 % probability of snow Sunday evening, that might be updating later today. Snow before the Siberian airmass moves in would be aswesome !

Well, if you look at tracks of low pressure systems over the past say eight years during the winter months, there has been many inland trackers, coastal huggers and our favorite, "the cutter ". Not sure why this is, blocking, Atlantic ocean SSTs, etc. Have not seen many benchmark storms. Maybe others could chime in as to the reason. But yes, the GFS is lost totally. Sad.

Even if so, that might be a temporary feature. Yet to be determined.

Yep, that was my thought as well. Very interesting.

So what is Webb saying here ? Is it that the coldest air never makes it fully to the East and dumps SW like it did in 2021 ? https://x.com/jamesathomas15/status/1879300372474495096 My experience with these brutally cold Arctic air masses that get dumped on/near the Rockies is that they usually sink southward more quickly than models lead you to believe in the medium range, and end up getting dumped a bit further west like the eps/geps has shown for days Pouring this kind of cold air into a mid level trough will entice it to dig more quickly & the +PVa created above the low to mid level cold dome (a stable layer), “drags” the trough base further west.

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1879323899961499735 Mike Thomas @MikeTFox5 Bit of an interesting "operational vs ensemble" battle in the extended guidance from the European here... Operational model shows occasional pulses in the polar blocking (-AO/-NAO) that continues to filter stronger cold eastward. Ensemble suggests things stay weaker here, allowing the southeast ridge to moderate temperatures in the East while the stronger cold dumps into the West. Will be an interesting fight to watch in the days ahead.

Yep, double the amount, very significant run to run output.

Baby steps. Keep the faith.

There were many comments about five days ago that centered on the complexity of the pattern between Jan 21 st and early Feb. Things will not be decided until later. I mentioned analogs, but they mean nothing really in the grand scheme of things presently. Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrast next week.

He should apply to BammWX

Whats the surprise, the analogs indicated this days ago. Most snowfall the next 15 days in VA. and below. Wasted cold for our area.