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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Just updated
  2. frd
    This was just updated a few minutes ago, and wow ! Deeper, longer, we are setting up for an extended period of winter weather. More consolidation for a -3 SD AO then yesterday. Some member - 6 SD.
  3. frd
    Isn't there some type of formula as to peak negative SOI and it's effect in the East via Pac interaction and moisture delivery ?
  4. frd
    It's good to be rational and objective.
  5. frd
    Wonder why Tomer is not as excited as some? Granted, he seems to say moderate snow events likely in the upcoming pattern after mid month, but he states he does not see a historic snowfall pattern based on the current modeling.
  6. frd
    I was not aware how dramatic the North America snow cover has declined. Pretty remarkable. Interesting post by @bluewave below. < The record low snow cover may be part of the reason the surface temperatures days 11-15 will be significantly warmer than the 850mb temperatures. >
  7. frd
    Impressive for 30 days
  8. frd
    Pattern has legs deep into March
  9. frd
    Continued improvement today with a dropping - AO.
  10. frd
    Good post
  11. frd
    When do you think the - NAO starts to relax, because that will be important as it is related to storm potential during the relaxation period.
  12. frd
    Interesting
  13. frd
    Wonder if we tap into some of this arctic air later in Feb. Brrr.
  14. frd
    The - AO looks even better today.
  15. frd
    Rather consistent signal there, been there for several days.
  16. frd
    Wonder how far South suppression is ?
  17. frd
    The West based block increases the odds for a more significant snowfall event for our area I believe. I was just commenting yesterday about the CMC and how it might over do blocking, but as you mentioned, other models have trended to it . Awesome looks there !!
  18. frd
    No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks. The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March.
  19. frd
  20. frd
  21. frd
    You need to visit other forums in the East and conduct therapy, because if you think its a bummer here at times other forums are even worse. I totally get it though. Its been a very long time for some areas. I understand the frustration.
  22. frd
    The CMC is always more bullish on HL blocking in general it seems. In both domains.
  23. frd
    So you are thinking the pattern change lasts about two weeks and then thats it? So you are going to route of the Pac not cooperating and breaking down the pattern that sets up in mid-Feb by early March? Some are going with a cold and possibly snowy March. I have my bar set low, despite the weeklies, and ensembles. Been fooled too many times in the past.
  24. frd
    Do you believe it though ? Thought we are headed for a - EPO + PNA pattern in mid Feb.
  25. frd
    3 D Vortex current Hour 384 forecast from the GFS. Notice the bagginess and displacement North South orientation, along with hints of a split at lower levels. Overall positive signs for the HL.
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