Bob Chill

We've seen this stuff in past morph into a weaker solution with a front end thump/dryslot. Ops often back down on strength with big cutters a week out. Get a modest wedge with snow on the ground and I can easily see it be a mixed event with decent accums (2-5"). We've had many in the past buy they aren't too memorable because of dryslot drizzledrip and slush when it shuts off. Either way it looks like a juicy storm cutting west is in the works no matter what. We'll see how it goes

We'll run circles defining the hybrids. We've done it many times lol. Any storm that jumps is called a Miller b because it looks like one but me and you dont see it that way. Barolclinic transfers from a low approaching from the deep south is not a Miller b in my book. They usually have big juicy WAA in front. A defining difference from a NS Miller B that never gets going until it's gaining latitude. Just my take and separates the 2 in my brain with how I view the possibilities.

CMC is simply amped. It wasn't the elephant OH transfer solution. If the euro shows the same heights (or better) at hrs 60-72 like the gfs/icon did, we can start not worrying about the most heartbreaking type of outcome. Didn't take much at all to knock that solution down today. Very subtle shift. Same with temps. I think too many people jumped the gun on a few wobbles warm past few days. I didn't like seeing it either but long range tracking shouldn't laser in so quickly. Being reactionary to ops beyond d4 can greatly reduce personal verification scores.

Gfs already looks like confluence/cold should be improved behind the 4th wave. Maybe something mucks it up but the short range trend looks good to me.

It was an improved run and you could see it by d4. I don't pay much mind to the ICON but the run was sweet. All we should care about is keeping the primary as far south of OH as possible for now. ICON had that door closed early

Icon cleaned up some of the disjointed upper level energy with the track across the deep south. Kept dirty air away and also kept the primary track away from the danger zone. What a beaut Clark!

What a nuking on the icon. Lol. MA special track to a tee

Imo- equal chance. Storm is going to want to punch into any strength of confluence. Strength of shortwave will determine how much force and strength of confluence will determine how much resistance. Small changes in both = sizeable changes in our yards. These types of details will likely wobble back and forth for another couple days b4 we can set narrow enough goal posts to make accurate, bold, and unrealistic snowfall calls.

Just uploaded my mid range tracking app to my brain. No ads! Been waiting for this. Immabout burned out on long range guessing and broad concept stuff. 2 years of non stop practice can do that to you. If it hits south I'll be reporting from Smith Mtn. If it hits north I'll be reporting from Weston CT. If it hits west I'll be in the news headlines and it won't be pretty

Driveway and neighbors driveway during the height. I rode the edge of the dryslot. Storm never took its foot off the gas. Only been 88 years.... lol

In some parts of the world, a Guinea pig peeing on you is believed to bring good fortune. You should encourage it daily. Make it snow

It hasn't but it's changed still. We used to use early Dec as a benchmark for understanding how winter is going to break. That been fooling people lately (myself included). Last 7 years or so we usually don't know what we're dealing with until after Dec. We try to know but it hasn't worked like it has in the past based on my observations. We've been getting curveballed A LOT. Even during times that should be more guessable during early winter. Interesting to ponder but might just be chaos.

100%. This is a crappy mock up but gets the point across. Get the Aleutian low (of any magnitude) to undercut the epo and it opens the door for a Seattle to St Louis track on the NS and a classic split coming into the SW. Either stream can produce individually (NS always dicey lol) but the phase potential lights up. Add in a steep epo and the polar stream joins the party. Get the NS and polar stream to link a few times and the conus will get real cold too as the bowl carves and vodka spills in. I can see it plain as fookin' day lol.... but is this the real life, or is it just fantasy?

One thing I keep repeatedly thinking about is how March has become a "better" winter month since 2014. On the flip, Dec has become more of a fall month in these parts. Makes sense with ocean temps among other things. What's interesting is the atmosphere still seems to want to run a "normal" winter cycle just later. 09/10 started in early Dec and pretty much quit after Feb 10th. We got missed by a biggie after but for the most part winter ended then. Especially with temps. Gotta wonder if a more typical and classic Nino patten sets up in mid Jan and runs thru mid March (or later) instead of shutting off in Feb like previous similar Ninos. Seasonal and monthly guidance had that idea going much of the fall. Maybe we should all stop caring so much about Dec. Maybe the signals for a good winter come later than usual. Just tossing out ideas. Plenty of time to observe over the coming years.

NGL.... it's very thought provoking. Every part of my wx intuition says this blocking episode will run until end of Feb. Maybe longer. For those that haven't been around for a long duration block, it doesn't mean we snow a lot. It can still do anything.... rain, dry, blizzard... takes more than a block to snow here. The big positive is *IF* something sets up right, the chance of maximizing is much higher. Blocks wax, wane, and wiggle too. They don't just park. But just having a blocked longwave pattern that fights back against latitude gain can open the door to many more possibilities than quick/progressive flow.

When the NH sets up like this, I can't think of a time in the past where it didn't last. Especially during a Nino. Get that burly west based block to link up to the -AO dome of HP and it takes A LOT to break it down. I know u know this. Just adding color commentary with a pretty color chart. Sprawling HP from the Aleutians to the pole to Baffin Bay. Yea, that will work good.... real good... lol ETA: I can envision the -epo ridge extending north and the Aleutian low returning underneath. Big game hunting if that happens.

Track is too close. Look at 850 wind barbs. Southerly flow all the way to VT. Real cold front is north of that where northerlies are smashing into southerlies. Surface flow is due east off the ocean. There is no mechanism to stop warm Atlantic air from wrapping in. Not saying gfs is right at all. Just pointing out the obvious problem for the CP and fall line zone. How does this get fixed? We need more compression in front. Big amp in Midwest is going to draw in warmth no matter the track. We need a press. Confluence, surface high feed, something... This is where we gotta watch who's rooting for what. North of here wants an amp all day so their "good runs" will be kinda scary here. Our good runs will continue the NE panic. We can all get some snow but I don't like the setup at all for that outcome. Too much thermal risk and it's not even cold leading in. Seasonal at best.

I'm too lazy to dig in my old hard drive but i did quite a bit of AO data crunching for DJFM some years back. Results spoke for themselves with the AO. NAO is much more volatile but there is almost always a connection because of shared troposphere lol. Get the AO to tank to -2 or more during met winter, about 80% of the time it will mark the start of a 45 to as much as 60 period where it remains negative on the balance. Works both ways very well but this is the only fun way hahahaha. Our snow in the MA is most closely correlated to the AO. We do horrible unless it's negative. The more the better. NAO correlates more to storm size for obvious reasons but not storms in general. That said, a relaxing stout neg nao has been a precursor for some of our biggest and best storms when combined with a stout -AO. My guess is *IF* that big west based block forms along with a -AO (giant nao block will near guaranty a -AO), it's going to be around with varying strengths into mid Feb. Maybe longer. There's solid data to back that up. Wont know in advance because we can get seriously sucker punched with a tanking AO or NAO that quickly reverses in like a week or so. By mid Jan we'll know and if this is one of those stable blocks. I feel pretty strongly that it will be but that's just a gut guess. Even if the -NAO doesn't have big legs, it sure looks stout and if it relaxes as quick as it comes, that window could be a big storm window even in a pattern that is heading backwards. All in all, I've continue to like everything I see down the line. Just need to keep away from here and not let my mind get clouded by emotional disregulation and making big things out of blips and burps. Lol. I appreciate all your posts this year. Helps me rip and read quick and get out lol

Snow or not, guidance has destroyed the 7th window from 10+ days out so far. The shortwave has been focused on run after run for days on the ens. Maybe it ends up too warm, maybe it does nothing, or maybe it's our first decent snowfall of some kind. Not sure there yet as the ingredients are too sketchy to feel confident in any direction. But imho, heck of a lock-in for a modest shortwave. Gnarly ones are different (2010, 2016 etc). I don't understand the intense criticism of ens guidance. From the outside looking in, it really looks to me like some (too many) people equate "pattern change" with a snowfall or deep freeze date lol. That's insanity lol. Even when the pattern is solid it's still a hunt and peck to find something that can produce. It took an extra week (as usual) to get into something that "might snow". That's a mega fail? Lol. Long timers should know better and not act like rookies. I've only talked about the window around the 7th because I always mentally add a week to whatever long range is showing during a shift. I had some hopes of snow this week but I figured things would wallow around and they did. The best advice I can give a long range pattern flip tracker is always add a week once all d10-15 ens agree on the change. Your accuracy will improve greatly with long range guessing by doing this. Sometimes flips come flying in quick or on time and it's fine to follow that. Set strong expectations? Recipe for hurt feelings and awful posting. That's a fact lol. I have a lot of evidence in this thread to back it up. Lolx2

8&11 day GEFS analogs look pretty good for winter wx. No big storms in the top part of list but majority have winter wx events within a few days either way. Nearly all have precipitation so rain is certainly part of the analog set. Top ones look pretty good though and worth mentioning as we're now at the d8-11 lead time for what still appears to be whiter pastures. These are a day old. I'll check l8r and if see if anything changes. I dont expect much new information as guidance has been semi locked in in the extended. Eta: Jan 1964 analog was actually a decent storm. Bwi looks like they got 6". Can't tell at IAD but it snowed. DC snowed too but more mixing there.

To be fair to the poor, underappreciated, and often bashed GFS... lol... Upper level lows are dynamic balls of energy. The wobble and evolve in unpredictable ways. Precipitation is dynamically driven in a tight area unlike upglide/overrunning. Models never get that stuff right. Especially in a mixed event scenario. Even 24 hours out (or real time) there is a level of unpredictably that makes it fun to experience (during legit snow events).

The macro pattern problem has been basically all of NA north of 40N has been roasting. Canada has been wall to wall. Sure, continental air can be cold this time of year but it's been off and on humid and pacificy for weeks. Flow has been slow underneath that too so air has been stale far more often than fresh for weeks. The only pattern change that matters to me is getting rid if that. It's Dec, Atlantic is warm, and snowcover to our north and west has been abysmal. We'll never snow like this even if the mids are ok sometimes. Winter flow (when it's cold enough to snow) generally keeps reinforcing continental air in waves. Carving down the latitudes. We've had none of that. Nobody has really. Shouldnt be too suprising that no track can get it right to snow regardless. Front side of the "potential" nao block should start the carve process in the east. Cold should come in waves with increasing depth in the CONUS. That (to me) is the most important pattern change. Stale pacific air is useless to snow weenies. Kick that out and see what happens.

My only problem with deep creek is traffic/people. It's personal though. I'm beyond burned out on rat race roads. However, if investment roi, 4 seasons, ease of access, and wide open recreational activities at your door is important, there are few better choices anywhere in the MA than Deep Creek. If it was my choice, WV all the way. I like driving country roads and don't care about distances so that is a serious consideration. With our property near sm mtn we are pretty out there. 10 miles for gas/diesel, 20mi for quick food, and 40-45mi for majors like wally/lowes. Running out "quick" isn't a thing and it won't be in WV either. But man, the peace and quiet and unspoiled beauty is so worth it if that's your jam. Only views from our property are forest and mountains. No houses or buildings. But there are tradeoffs with everything and no right or wrong. Just what makes the most sense based on your goals. My unspoiled view will cost me lots of diesel over the years lolol

One of the most unreliable talking points in any winter imo. They rarely happen and when they do, the results often end up as "unexpected" (translate: no help or makes it worse lol). Let's focus on the troposphere. At least that connects to the ground fairly often. Lol. NAO block (of varying degrees) seems pretty likely coming up. Get that thing to tank then wait for the relax. Imho- KU hunting can't really start until that happens first. Very optimistic about winter wx chances increasing by the end of next week tho. Not really paying much attention to stuff b4 that. I'll flip the switch if something pops in the med range

12z gefs really starting to agree on the shortwave. Nice height pattern leading in. Might be a blip. Previous gefs runs were much more diffuse with the sw tracking thru the rockies. 12z focused in. EPS has been pretty focused. I continue to really like the general setup.