Bob Chill

Don't overlook the Roanoke/Penhook deathband jack...

Triple phase storms show up at long leads because (usually) there is a phase no matter what. Big dogs have special ingredients. They aren't subtle. 93 tripled and became a record breaking beast but a large strong storm was already a near guaranty well in advance. Its been a long time since the last triple....maybe we're due... heh

This colder/active stretch looks much more like a nino than nina in the northern hemisphere. I talked about this in the fall. I never thought this winter would behave like a typical nina. Nino hangover no doubt has its hand in the cookie jar. One of the reasons I was a little bullish early on. I had some good guesses this fall so far but they were just experienced based intuition guesses. I get that stuff wrong plenty but my confidence was high this year for reasons I can't really explain even to myself lol Does it continue? Idk. Gut says nino hangover look will break down and not come back. We're getting pretty far into winter now. If things stay colder/active, I don't think it will look the same. Prob getting ahead of myself but intuition is telling me that a more zonal/boundary type regime will be the next money maker if there is one. Less amplified pna and hints of a SE ridge. Blocking can flatten the ridge and create zonal flow with cold fighting warm. If that happens the gulf will be involved by default. Just throwing ideas around. I cannot predict the long range future any better than mets, models,and longtimers here. Much uncertainty lies ahead

Yea, it's been looking like that on the balance for like 3 days. Because things are strung out when they get here, big rates is prob unlikely. But temps below freezing and frozen ground will maximize lighter rates. Our area in general looks close to the sweet spot outside of a bomb. Even a bomb works quite well but it includes jealousy hahahaha

Outside of a nuke, best case scenario is to have the southern vort as juiced as possible when it turns north. Even modest NS interaction like a frontal boundary or ribbon of vorticity can keep things cohesive enough for a very nice event. Can't have a stream duel. They need to be nice to each other in some way. ICONs version can def work and improve without a bomb

Idk about that. Southern stream is ripping. To me it looks like the NS is messing it up more than assisting. But it's the Nam doing Nam things at a range it shouldn't be allowed to run lol

Upper levels lose lift and instability. Moisture is still there but the mechanism to wring it out gets pulled apart from messy interaction. Think of it like 3-4 way tug of war, very confusing and nobody usually wins. Doesn't mean that's locked in though. Just how it looks now. Northern stream is notorious for mid range surprises (in all directions). Difficult to model. @psuhoffmani agree 100%. We can have epic dry periods in any season but the last 4 years or so has taught me the same thing. When precip happens, a propensity to bust on the high side seems far more common than the other way around. If it pulls north all juiced up, my gut says it translates down stream no matter....

Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though

The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it mid month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper camp is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is

It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always

Pretty scenic for a messy storm down here. Lookin forward to my first non messy storm lol

I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards. Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol

Ended with 1.5" of snow, .5" sleet, and at least .2 zr accretion. Power was out from 4am to just now lol. Exceeded expectations but it was a pretty messy storm here lol

U ok bro?

Pingin pretty good here to your east. It's going to be a crunchy night and AM lol

Solid 1.5" before a lull. Precip on the doorstep again but I doubt it will be snow. Temps bouncing between 29-30 so frozen will continue at least. Hope y'all get hammered and schools are out for a week. Good times

Jan 2000 is on the d6-10 analog list. Extrapolate at your own risk

You're prob in a much better spot than me overall. Especially west and north like forest and Elon area. I'm getting lucky right now. After this lets up my snow part is prob over then on to sleet and frozen pines lol

White asteroids. Usually means sleet nearby but you can hear them hitting the ground too lol

Penhook deathband incoming. Last hurrah for me probs but 1" on the ground and roads. Awesome day.

Dang it lol. I figured the warning was a tease and mirage but I'm lovin it no matter. Bottom of the hill is a little marina on the lake. I could sled 50mph right into the lake hahaha

NWS (blacksburg) upgraded to a warning with up to 4" of snow and sleet before zr lol. It's dumping. I'm under oranges. Let's fookin go!

Mod snow, big flakes, half mile viz, and sticking on everything. I'll post pics in a bit

Snowing in Penhook and Glade Hill. Temps hovering round 32-33 but ground is frozen. Radar looks better than I thought and it started 2 hours early. Extrapolate at your own risk

Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms. I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo.