Bob Chill

Gefs is a hive to the op and it becomes more pronounced at shorter leads. EPS can be similar but not on the same level. Gefs always mirrors the op inside of 7 days. If the 18z op goes big, so will the gefs.

Never easy. Gfs would make my yard happy but honestly it would be a big letdown to me as well. I'm never sold on a major until 48-72hrs but imho, I highly doubt the gfs. Too many ingredients in place for a MA snowstorm and too much general model support to believe the gfs just figured out the final solution. Euro has been crazy steady. People expecting 12-18" already are setting themselves up but a widespread warning level event for all our yards seems quite likely

Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm.

It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range

Surprised models still keep my yard safe from mixing but I'm expecting some sleet for a time. Hopefully no zr. Power can go out for weeks (not days) down this way lol. If I mix and the DMV doesn't get widespread double digits ill have to put a check mark in the fail column lol. Getting calls for snow removal help already. Might be a very profitable storm. Deep powder, diesel fuel, and heavy equipment sounds like a good f'n time hahahah

I got 30" in Rockville 2016. Rode the edge of the dryslot and it was puking for hours. I'll never forget that one.

Upper level support is still pretty far back and there's potential stream interaction as it swings through. Not saying some huge dump is still inbound but verbatim, decent lift and dynamics are continuing beyond this hr144

18z aigfs is a pretty big jump south. Still gets a decent swath of snow into DC but weenies won't be as happy. Max qpf stripe in NC this run

Very generally speaking, thunder snow is reserved for storms that deepen rapidly near your latitude (bomb out) or less commonly a vigorous closed upper level low pass creating instability and pockets of big lift. I don't really see either with this event yet so my guess is no. There's a big thermal gradient but otherwise not a bomb scenario or gnarly closed upper level low.

Agree but it's weird that the analog isn't showing on CIPS or CPC. There are a lot of good storms showing on the lists though including Jan 96, second Feb storm 2010, Jan 2011, and mid Feb 2014 to name a few. The 2007 sleet storm is also in the mix and that one could have been a major snow event. The analog lists are loaded but not with PD2. There must be some key differences at 500mb keeping that one at bay. IIRC, PD2 didn't have a big -NAO so it could be that feature. Not really sure.

Climo is climo. I can't buy the 12z euro for 1 simple reason. It would be one of the top 5 biggest storms in history down this way. Idk if this is the kind of setup for something that historic. Blizzard of 96 was 24" in Roanoke. Feb 2014 was close to 20". A 15-20" storm is quite rare. Imo, the DC area is more likely to get 15-20" than central and swva. That said, my yard is in a pretty good spot and I'm pretty fired up over the potential.

It's 3 storms. Jan/Feb 2010 redux

Lol. Euro AI has 3 hits in a row too. This is #3. Hahaha 3 threads inbound.... hahahaha

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 48-72 hours. This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 24-48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol Eta: I meant 0z Wednesday runs or tomorrow night. Not tonight's 0z suite

Let's just play the ukulele and lock it up. I mix for a bit but if that's what it takes for ALL of us to get buried... I guess I'll make the sacrifice just this once

Obviously that's extreme lol but feast/famine or storms in bunches has historically how we roll in the MA. We're conditioned to expect fail (especially the last 10 years or so) but we also haven't had a blocked pattern like this since 2011. I'm personally expecting a second legit threat at least over the next 2 weeks. Blocking cycles like this have historically lasted 30-45 days. Imo, it would be much less likely for things to fall apart quickly than hang around and deliver. I had a hunch this winter would be blocky and so far it has been pretty good in that department. The upcoming period looks ideal. Just need things to remain active to capitalize. That piece is always random and chaotic but give us enough chances and we'll do just fine imo.

Gfs AI is a triple header lol #2 #3 Our last heater was 2015. WDI? Lol

ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect.

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not.

Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate. Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts

It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA. Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting. Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate but until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush.

Definitely. SW and central VA jackpot. Lalalalockitup

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Cpc is pretty solid. Some nice periods in the mix

CFS weeks 5-6 look ideal for Feb snow and cold. Yea it's the CFS and it's way out there but looks like this are friendly for the MA and SE. Gulf connection and horizontal battleground heh. Kitchen sink pattern with all frozen on the table. Maybe a sleet bomb redux lol