Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha
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I'm talking very modest. Qpf distribution is really locking in right now and it's a massive swath. I don't see much of a chance for that to fall apart at this point. The hours before the flip to sleet are almost always wild with WAA snows. Giant flakes and low vis heavies commonly precede the sandstorm. I'm pretty excited for that part. I want the gfs to be right so bad... but until the euro ticks that direction it feels like fools gold
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It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...
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My yard is a kitchen sink no matter what but I'd take the ICON all day over the ice runs that are popping up. 5" of snow and 3" of sleet is 1 million times better than anything that has a half inch of ice or more. Our forests are loaded with pines. Big ice would be awful to clean up behind.
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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
Bob Chill replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Recon discussion from the Baja low says that it injested copious dry air from the desert in Mexico and it will turn moist low pressure into dry high pressure when it phases with the northern stream. -
I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above
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2" qpf and all snow... idk man. Grape Nut dump trucks on all other models but the gfs found a way to go all snow... lol. I'll take the under and probably A LOT under but there's a chance or something
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This weekends storm is happening during a falling AO. That's less common than when the AO relaxes from an anomalous drop. This is only one piece of puzzle but the large scale features are on our side for a chance at another solid storm late Jan/early Feb
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Ukie decidedly un-amped. Gfs/icon camp
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Getting some practice on these setups. A game for the redux
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I'll gladly take the gfs version. Big change for folks SW is a flip back to snow on the backside. Being more strung out really helps. Thump, sleet, dryslot, sleet, snow... yea, I like this version.
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Extrapolated NAM would be an overturned semi hauling Grape Nutz in my yard lol. Had a feeling yesterday morning that in the end a sleet bomb would be more likely than a top 10 snow event. Odds increasing every suite lol.
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The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2?
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Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice.
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I did all the maintenance due on my generator and loader/tractor today. Got gas for the camping stove and indoor propane heater. Still need tighten up all my solar panels and whatever else I have to worry about breaking lol. Hopefully I get sleet and not zr. This storm is getting serious for my area and south....
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I'm thinkin sleet is likely for me even though most models show my area in the safe zone. If it's a qpf bomb like it appears to want to be, climo strongly favors sleet. But it's quite a wall of confluence unlike a scared HP running away so maybe not...
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There is no doubt in my mind the gfs is SPOT ON this time. Someone please ctrl+alt+del it immediately, m'kay? Tx!
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Gfs is coming around. Closed low unclosing and ns is digging further back in BC. Should be a better run (not saying much lol)
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Gefs is a hive to the op and it becomes more pronounced at shorter leads. EPS can be similar but not on the same level. Gefs always mirrors the op inside of 7 days. If the 18z op goes big, so will the gefs.
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Never easy. Gfs would make my yard happy but honestly it would be a big letdown to me as well. I'm never sold on a major until 48-72hrs but imho, I highly doubt the gfs. Too many ingredients in place for a MA snowstorm and too much general model support to believe the gfs just figured out the final solution. Euro has been crazy steady. People expecting 12-18" already are setting themselves up but a widespread warning level event for all our yards seems quite likely
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Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm.
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It came from a tired old model that loves to make shit up way out of range
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Surprised models still keep my yard safe from mixing but I'm expecting some sleet for a time. Hopefully no zr. Power can go out for weeks (not days) down this way lol. If I mix and the DMV doesn't get widespread double digits ill have to put a check mark in the fail column lol. Getting calls for snow removal help already. Might be a very profitable storm. Deep powder, diesel fuel, and heavy equipment sounds like a good f'n time hahahah
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I got 30" in Rockville 2016. Rode the edge of the dryslot and it was puking for hours. I'll never forget that one.
