Bob Chill

Tough call. This current 2 week period could end up being the coldest/most active period of winter but I have my doubts for now. I'm expecting a -ao reload before any extended thaw. Otoh, winters don't behave the same as they used too so climo/history doesn't work as well as it used too. Right now the current AO dive still looks more like a classic 4+ week period versus a hit and run. Nothing surprises me anymore though

The current AO dive peaked at -4 and no signs of a legit flip yet. A relax is inevitable and ens guidance is honing in on it mid month but more importantly, what happens beyond will define a good chunk of Feb. My gut says another dive of lesser magnitude is the most likely. If that happens, front half of Feb will continue with a decent regime for winter wx. Even if/when things aren't lining up, winter will be lurking close by. Ens spread is wide. My money is on the big + flipper camp is wrong. Neutral waffle or elevator down is where my head is

It's never really looked good for a bomb. Don't get me wrong, I want a nuke but it's pretty messy in the upper levels as it lifts north. No classic banana high and no consolidated shortwave. Imo, the best ingredient in place is baroclinicity (odd word lol) and not much else for things going nuclear. That said, it's pretty juicy in the gulf so even if decaying or disorganized on the trip north, no reason to think we can't get a sheared but juicy overrunner. The once common widespread 2-4/3-6 has been on hiatus. This setup is a very common way to get that. Time will tell as always

Pretty scenic for a messy storm down here. Lookin forward to my first non messy storm lol

I'm not sure about this one. I do like my location this time. Overrunning precip zips north and I have room to spare in the mids/surface... for now... lol. Things are tricky as that slug comes up. I'd like to think I get a 2-4 deal before things fall apart if thats how it breaks. I prob won't get any extra effects from rapid deepening. That's likely well north of me. But I'm in an OK spot for a cohesive storm too. Short story is its becoming likely another winter wx make is coming for both our yards. Impacts TBD. I think I stand a better chance for accum snow than you guys with a weaker/messier upper level system. You guys would smoke me with a bomb but that's what I'm rooting for no matter what. 18z gefs likes the more bomby idea but the gefs is a cult of the op at this range lol

Ended with 1.5" of snow, .5" sleet, and at least .2 zr accretion. Power was out from 4am to just now lol. Exceeded expectations but it was a pretty messy storm here lol

U ok bro?

Pingin pretty good here to your east. It's going to be a crunchy night and AM lol

Solid 1.5" before a lull. Precip on the doorstep again but I doubt it will be snow. Temps bouncing between 29-30 so frozen will continue at least. Hope y'all get hammered and schools are out for a week. Good times

Jan 2000 is on the d6-10 analog list. Extrapolate at your own risk

You're prob in a much better spot than me overall. Especially west and north like forest and Elon area. I'm getting lucky right now. After this lets up my snow part is prob over then on to sleet and frozen pines lol

White asteroids. Usually means sleet nearby but you can hear them hitting the ground too lol

Penhook deathband incoming. Last hurrah for me probs but 1" on the ground and roads. Awesome day.

Dang it lol. I figured the warning was a tease and mirage but I'm lovin it no matter. Bottom of the hill is a little marina on the lake. I could sled 50mph right into the lake hahaha

NWS (blacksburg) upgraded to a warning with up to 4" of snow and sleet before zr lol. It's dumping. I'm under oranges. Let's fookin go!

Mod snow, big flakes, half mile viz, and sticking on everything. I'll post pics in a bit

Snowing in Penhook and Glade Hill. Temps hovering round 32-33 but ground is frozen. Radar looks better than I thought and it started 2 hours early. Extrapolate at your own risk

Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms. I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo.

Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD. Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12...

Yessir. Nearly all coastals are hybrids in the sense that slp jumps the coast/redevelops even with the majority of Miller As. Jan 2000 was a straight up coastal tracker but those are super rare. Otherwise, the handoff is present nearly all the time. In my simple mind, any storm that is juicy west of the MS River and tracks entirely south of us is a Miller A. No big lull or weird weaken b4 strengthen again stuff. Just a trackable blob of precip that consistently leaves bigger totals in its wake as it marches NE. Miller Bs comes in all shapes and sizes. Jan 2016 was a Miller B if you count where it comes from. It was a NS shortwave that hit the pac NW. Just took an insanely good track and never wobbled in strength much. I personally look at Jan 2016 more as a Miller A but it's debatable I no longer like the Miller A/B debate. We know what works and what doesn't and the lines between them are way too muddy to have 2 simple buckets

You know I believe train tracks and heaters are a legit phenomenon when it comes to EC snow in general. This period looked like a heater setup over 2 weeks ago. It's reasonable to have some blind optimism right now

No doubt in my mind the UKIE is spot on. No bias here....

Do epic looks really matter? Lol. On the balance, the MA and SE get more snow in convoluted ways than epic. Partly because epic is rare but also there's the small detail that height patterns are only 1 piece of the pie for a big storm. So models are backing down on the extreme block. What does that mean on the ground? We flip to a warm ridge or just a less extreme version of what we're seeing now? Looks like winter to me on all guidance and it's the heart of Southern snow season. December requires an extreme setup and that applies to DC too. Jan/Feb? Just need winter conditions nearby or in place. I don't see that leaving the east thru the end of Jan. Doesn't mean wall to wall cold of course. I'm sure we'll have some warmer days no matter what. But overall I don't think we can ask for much better other than perfection. My biggest fear is simple lack of precip. Extreme and strong blocking has brought both our areas big snow over the years but it's also brought us some of the longest cold/dry periods on record too lol

The 10-12th setup is pretty good for you and me. Not the same mechanism as the current storm. Won't have such a strong WAA surge and trajectory is pretty good for snowfall from the NC piedmont westward. Strung out Miller A is a good description. Rain/snow line will more vertical instead of horizontal. Of course all these thoughts are moot if there is no shortwave to draw things northward. Not at a stage where we can have any confidence in a specific shortwave. Just that heights thru the period favor a good hit in NC and SWVA if other ingredients join the party

It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too....