Bob Chill

Mod snow, big flakes, half mile viz, and sticking on everything. I'll post pics in a bit

Snowing in Penhook and Glade Hill. Temps hovering round 32-33 but ground is frozen. Radar looks better than I thought and it started 2 hours early. Extrapolate at your own risk

Ummm.... this is the best d11+ analog set as a whole that I've seen in years. Jan 2004 was inch away from epic. Majority of these point towards our heaters and not single storms. I've become the most bullish on future prospects than I have in longer than i can remember. Some these analogs were just epic cold/stormy periods in general. Focusing on raw snowfall only misses the bigger picture here imo.

Starting to see the big bowl look on ens & now ops at times d10+. Big bowls are my personal faves. Long tracks with good trajectories. Won't be as cold as a big +pna but it will likely be active. All systems go if it sets up because even west tracks work with the big bowl. Highs to the north move laterally. Good for CAD. Last winter was blocky but ugly AF. Data shows a blocky winter either way. The year before that was crazy on the #s. This winter is trying pretty hard to go down as a blocky winter on the #s and maybe be snowy too. If the big weird multi decade AO/NAO cycle is real, which I think it is, this is probably the beginning of a 10 year stretch where blocking comes easy. Last one ended in 2011/12...

Yessir. Nearly all coastals are hybrids in the sense that slp jumps the coast/redevelops even with the majority of Miller As. Jan 2000 was a straight up coastal tracker but those are super rare. Otherwise, the handoff is present nearly all the time. In my simple mind, any storm that is juicy west of the MS River and tracks entirely south of us is a Miller A. No big lull or weird weaken b4 strengthen again stuff. Just a trackable blob of precip that consistently leaves bigger totals in its wake as it marches NE. Miller Bs comes in all shapes and sizes. Jan 2016 was a Miller B if you count where it comes from. It was a NS shortwave that hit the pac NW. Just took an insanely good track and never wobbled in strength much. I personally look at Jan 2016 more as a Miller A but it's debatable I no longer like the Miller A/B debate. We know what works and what doesn't and the lines between them are way too muddy to have 2 simple buckets

You know I believe train tracks and heaters are a legit phenomenon when it comes to EC snow in general. This period looked like a heater setup over 2 weeks ago. It's reasonable to have some blind optimism right now

No doubt in my mind the UKIE is spot on. No bias here....

Do epic looks really matter? Lol. On the balance, the MA and SE get more snow in convoluted ways than epic. Partly because epic is rare but also there's the small detail that height patterns are only 1 piece of the pie for a big storm. So models are backing down on the extreme block. What does that mean on the ground? We flip to a warm ridge or just a less extreme version of what we're seeing now? Looks like winter to me on all guidance and it's the heart of Southern snow season. December requires an extreme setup and that applies to DC too. Jan/Feb? Just need winter conditions nearby or in place. I don't see that leaving the east thru the end of Jan. Doesn't mean wall to wall cold of course. I'm sure we'll have some warmer days no matter what. But overall I don't think we can ask for much better other than perfection. My biggest fear is simple lack of precip. Extreme and strong blocking has brought both our areas big snow over the years but it's also brought us some of the longest cold/dry periods on record too lol

The 10-12th setup is pretty good for you and me. Not the same mechanism as the current storm. Won't have such a strong WAA surge and trajectory is pretty good for snowfall from the NC piedmont westward. Strung out Miller A is a good description. Rain/snow line will more vertical instead of horizontal. Of course all these thoughts are moot if there is no shortwave to draw things northward. Not at a stage where we can have any confidence in a specific shortwave. Just that heights thru the period favor a good hit in NC and SWVA if other ingredients join the party

It really wouldn't take all that much for at least a partial phase. Ops can't resolve NS stuff at these ranges well if at all. It's too quick and volatile. Coin flip until it isn't lol. Either way, I really doubt this blocking cycle goes away until sometime in Feb. Even then it could reload. History of AO/NAO cycles of this magnitude is solid. Few if any break down and flip inside of 6 weeks. Some wax and wane for 3 months. We're kinda due for a big blocking cycle. Maybe it's the beginning if a longer term cycle. Kinda due for that too....

Lol. Yea man. I've known you almost as long as my younger twins. Hahaha. Now stay off my lawn and fix your walker divots on the way out

Loving life man even if I get no snow. I'm interested in 12z soundings. I haven't looked at any really because I figured my fate was sealed mostly. My initial gut call some days ago was an inch b4 mixy mess with the boom scenario being 3" tops. Still probably a good call but my interest has gone up

Just for the mental exercise and curiosity, I checked soundings on the euro for smith mtn lake area. I don't lose the column until 12z Monday and over .75 liquid falls. Obviously grape nuts are hitting pretty good by 12z but sounding says all snow at 9z so idk? Am I going to back my way into this? Lol Eta: just realized it's the 6z run. TT is slow lol. 12z prob stole all my snow

What a sweet south trend. Just need to keeps the ticks tickin How do you like me now? Hahahaha

We gotta wait until the real cold comes and bullies southward over the next 1-2 weeks. It's probably a bit of a bonus check getting any winter wx on the front side of this impending cold period. Ens means D10+ look half decent for southern storm. Unfortunately we probably have to root for a Miller B or slider of sorts that people north of us won't like too much.

@WEATHER53 Wanted to answer your question. We sold our Rockville house in early September. All pre-planned over the last 4 years or so. We've wanted out of HCOL MoCo and unfriendly crowds for a decade but kids, schools, and all that jazz doesn't allow life to be simple lol. We chose the general Smith Mtn lake area because it's a recreational paradise with minimal cost of living unless you want a lake front McMansion. Everything is a fraction of the cost and we downsized so financial stress is gone. Which is massively important because that stress was stealing years from me in MD. We have a 25 acre tract of land in a remote section of Pittsylvania County with Leesville lake access. We also have a simple little place in Penhook with Smith Mtn lake access that serves as home base for now until we build our home on the land. The 2 properties are only 3 miles apart with a helicopter but a 20 minute drive due to topography and minimal roads lol. Snow climo here is basically Roanoke so a downgrade there. I've stopped caring about that. Too many factors offset it and I've spent enough time chasing ghosts hahaha

Doesn't seem to matter what models do for me lol. Same outcome. Getting interested in the zr. Lots of pines on the mountains and hills here. Could look pretty cool iced up after an inch of snow at best. Not that it makes any damm difference but I'm rooting for @stormtracker, @Deck Pic, and all the other folks who literally get edged every damn storm. Make sure you rub it in REAL good if it happens

Our land ranges from 650-825. Top of smith is 2k. You can drive the entire length of the top on a 4wd trail. Not dangerous. Just need 4wd and good ground clearance. End of banter. Gfs looks good for u guys. Me nasomuch lol

Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha

I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol

History and climo favors the DMV general area but the setup is similar other more rare southern hits. We haven't had blocking and confluence like this in a long time but we've had plenty over the years. Stuff can get bullied south without much fanfare

Nice to see ya back Mitch This is where perspective is important. 50-100 mile shifts are really tiny on a global model but make or break on the ground lol. These narrow WAA stripes simply cannot be nailed down yet. Models are narrowing the spread but even 50 miles 48 hours in advance is a small shift. Unless things blip out, I don't want to hear models are all over the place because they aren't even close to that rn lol I'm still stuck on my initial gut feel down here. Hopefully an inch, a boom at 3", and mixing is a near guaranty lol I wouldn't discount Lake Anna jacks or that general area. This is the exact kind of setup that has jacked them in the past. The northern edge is going to be sharp AF too. Pac man will be chowing down

I feel quite confident that this general LW pattern will insert its influence for 4-6 weeks. Certainly not foot to the floor the entire time but just never getting too far out of whack and a propensity to look like the above prog on the balance. A good analogy with models would by JFM 2014 and 2015. Lots of breakdowns that never happened. The tracks have been set imo. Maybe we get a big relax and reload but my money is in this general theme until poof in real time

Let's do this S. 4 wheelin in a foot of powder to a hiking trail then giant bonfire and fireworks at night.

No matter what happens, the WAA piece looks pretty good for the MA (somewhere) not including my yard lol. Things get muddy with the mid and upper lows but that front part has all the ingredients in place for a hot and heavy stripe. Prob not real fluffy though unless mid/uppers crank a little when mid level winds shift. Not feelin too excited here. Maybe an inch or 3 at best before inevitable ptype problems. Pretty good cad area here though. Especially on our land east of Smith mtn. NE surface flow banks up pretty good and the topography between Smith mtn and Gretna is a forrested bowl. Doesn't scour easy as all. Considering this is my 3rd winter spending time here and I've never seen a plow or the grass covered.... I'll take what I can get and be happy AF.