Bob Chill

It's 3 storms. Jan/Feb 2010 redux

Lol. Euro AI has 3 hits in a row too. This is #3. Hahaha 3 threads inbound.... hahahaha

A lot of that depends on the setup and how developed the storm is in advance. A fast moving NS wave diving down out of Canada and rounding the base is usually moisture starved before the turn and typically has a narrow stripe. Very hard to nail down even at 48-72 hours. This event is nothing like that. Precip will already be breaking out 4 days in advance and the main energy isn't embedded in fast flow. Precip will also cover a pretty large area. Its a classic setup for SE/MA winter wx. For those reasons we'll prob safely know the bulk of who's getting winter wx by 96 hrs with the edges and mix line location causing the most uncertainty. People solidy in the middle of the snow zone by 96hrs can feel pretty good about getting hit. Finer details like max stripes and total qpf in general will always wobble even at 24-48hrs. Subtle differences in track and strength can cause fairly large shifts in amounts. All this said, I expect good agreement with all models for the bulk of the snow zone by 0z Tuesday. Famous last words.... lol Eta: I meant 0z Wednesday runs or tomorrow night. Not tonight's 0z suite

Let's just play the ukulele and lock it up. I mix for a bit but if that's what it takes for ALL of us to get buried... I guess I'll make the sacrifice just this once

Obviously that's extreme lol but feast/famine or storms in bunches has historically how we roll in the MA. We're conditioned to expect fail (especially the last 10 years or so) but we also haven't had a blocked pattern like this since 2011. I'm personally expecting a second legit threat at least over the next 2 weeks. Blocking cycles like this have historically lasted 30-45 days. Imo, it would be much less likely for things to fall apart quickly than hang around and deliver. I had a hunch this winter would be blocky and so far it has been pretty good in that department. The upcoming period looks ideal. Just need things to remain active to capitalize. That piece is always random and chaotic but give us enough chances and we'll do just fine imo.

Gfs AI is a triple header lol #2 #3 Our last heater was 2015. WDI? Lol

ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect.

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not.

Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate. Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts

It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA. Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting. Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate but until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush.

Definitely. SW and central VA jackpot. Lalalalockitup

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Cpc is pretty solid. Some nice periods in the mix

CFS weeks 5-6 look ideal for Feb snow and cold. Yea it's the CFS and it's way out there but looks like this are friendly for the MA and SE. Gulf connection and horizontal battleground heh. Kitchen sink pattern with all frozen on the table. Maybe a sleet bomb redux lol

Been out of the loop for a bit and just got back from CO last night. Amazing trip even with the epic fail snow year they're having. Snowed when we got there and ski/snowmobile conditions ended up being perfect. Sad to be home lol. Y'all have the upcoming period well covered. We've been thru several periods like this since Jan 2011. Analogs are friendly with Jan 2011, Feb 2014/15, and even Jan 2003 showing up. Potential is there but long lead tracking won't work well imho. Each push of deep mid level cold will present opportunity. Identifying the correct shortwave progression beyond 5/6 days will be challenging like what we saw during the second halves of 14/15. I dont think any of us will get skunked in the next 2-3 weeks and if it all reloads in Feb, climo+ snowfall is pretty likely. That can be worried about after we shovel something lol

Don't worry mitch, the daily weeklies jump around like a meth head on payday and above normal precip will be back right about the same time we lose the cold at day 23. But the good thing is we'll be tracking a legit threat inside of day 7 by then and not GAF about the weeklies anymore until the back edge shows on radar (onset for Ji). Then we can start the neurotic cycle all over again.

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models.

Jokes aside, if there is any month that doesn't require perfection or even "good" to snow, it's Jan. Doesn't look like east ridge hell anywhere on guidance. Just need activity. Jan can be on the dry side compared to Feb/Mar but it can also be active. I never lost optimism in Jan producing and odds seem above avg for a couple events. Luck and chaos will figure it out as usual lol

It's looking like 50/50 odds of a giant storm to me. We either get one or we dont. 50/50. Just like megamillioms, 50/50 every ticket. Dems goodz maphs amirite?

He's still human so we're all alloted some bad days per year and bad days are subjective. For Ji, a reasonable logical post is a red flag bad day

I personally find Ji pretty funny lol. The man has never broken character once in the 20+ years I've been reading his posts. He is a unique character that embodies the sum of every MA weenies neurotic thoughts. He's literally an exponentially amplified algorithm that includes a piece of all of us. Once you see it in that context it becomes quite entertaining but it's a subjective opinion hahaha. We ARE Ji... lolol

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2

That's a primary problem. HP is weaker too and it really needs to be 1035+ to stand ground and make things work. 1030 or less will get pushed out of the way. Especially in the mids. 12z run wasn't what you want to see.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.