Bob Chill

One of the problems with the year following a big year is expectations get totally out of whack lol. Boxing day 2010 was an incredibly bitter pill to swallow after the previous winter. I refused to believe it wouldn't work out cuz we were a blizzard town back then hahaha

13-14 was kinda wall to wall. Early Dec produced (very good N-W). Late Dec got super warm and freaked everyone out. By first week of Jan it completely flipped and we got a moderate cold storm (Jan 7th maybe?). History after that... I'll never forget the all snow/cold west track... super anomalous. 2015 was an epic disaster until Vday. Pure insanity in SNE. Was hard to watch lol

This pretty far out in time for an ens mean to show an obvious gulf moisture feed incoming. Might be be high qpf members skewing (didn't dig deep) but it's real hard not to ponder the 7th and beyond....

GEFS has a southern/tn valley wave between this panel and the bowling alley clearing out but this setup looks pretty good. You can track the wave from the west coast on the ens. Who knows how things break but flow is kinda slow. Waves are separated. Long range models may key in on a stronger wave pretty far out in time. Pretty sweet MSLP panel too. This is a good look for us

Imo only, it's the only look that gives us multiple potential outcomes to each wave. I'm prob on an island with this but really don't like deep bowls and vertical storm tracks even with a block. When they work they are lottery tickets but they sure can find a way to not work for a 3rd of our sub usually. Different problems in different directions but similar outcomes... deflated weenies... The lateral track is the shizzle to me. We can still easily get a foot. Especially with a decent upper level low. Our latitude sits in a sweet spot for the lateral track and we could sure use a level strip of pinks and purples from Lake Anna to York PA. Collective high 5s barely exist on the internet anymore.... snow is the great equalizer here. Let's do this! On a side note, I wasn't here for 95-96 but that late Dec/early Jan analog keeps popping up. Broad modestly neg pna is prob the reason but man, that's not a bad thing to have in common me thinks. Not saying Jan 96 (hands off keyboard Ji) redux. Just that everything points towards active weather with seasonable cold around and lateral storm track. I'll be a little surprised if we're not tracking something specific by mid next week.

Cycles in cycles. I moved to MD in fall 1972 from Central CT. I was really young but remember how disgusting that winter was. I was literally angry at my parents for moving away from snow. If they were still alive they would immediately confirm lollol. Winters continued to basically suck (small snow and ice storms and big cold dry spells) until the life changing Feb 1979 storm. But even then we had some real dung piles in the early 80s lol. Mid 80s, however, made everyone believe we're a big snow town again. Then vet day 1988 hit and everything started suckin again afterwards. lolol. Many weenies (including myself) thought the Vet day storm was a harbinger of a big winter. It was a big winter if you like little snow and mild temps lol. Cycles in Cycles are everywhere across the globe. Lake meade is a good example of a high profile one. The "New normal" wx pattern was going to drain the lake dry and there was no hope in sight. Oops. Lake may go dead pool but my hunch is not until it continues to fill for a other year or more. Just a total guess tho. . I'm not saying there aren't climate problems or shifts causing unusual droughts and floods. I'm just saying that taking the last "x" number of years and rolling the anomalous weather patterns forward is always wrong eventually. Not sometimes. Always. One thing I've been noticing is that prolonged drought areas in the US seem to get resolved quickly and violently when their number is called. Same can probably be said about our snowfall swings. Imho- We'll continue to get big winters sandwiched between tons of crappy ones just like it's always been. The swings are bigger and more intense in recent years. Opinions on why this is happening needs to be in a different thread tho lol. If a big winter by climo standards isn't enuff to fill a weenie, the weenie needs to find other stuff to do. Misery 24/7 ain't living haha

I've been disconnecting from all kinds of weird attachments or "hobbies lol" over the last 18 months. Barely touch my big PC, spend as little time online as possible, work hard as heck outside, and just live in the moment most days. I cannot describe in words how much this has helped me achieve new goals and have no fear starting anything new. My anxiety about anything is minimal nowadays but man it took a lot of work to break free. My LR analysis is just a super quick scan of ens h5 means and how they are trending. That's it. If a storm is gonna hit... it's gonna hit.... and we certaintly wont know it 7+ days out lol. Worrying about things i can't control was the root of my discomfort in life. Eliminating that is a choice. Not easy to execute and not quick to do buy worth its weight in platinum for me. It's making this hobby fun again for the first time in a long time lol. I'm settled in MD thru Jan 7th at least. Intuition says modest snowstorm on the way. Gotta see what happens with the big Midwest wobbler next week. Maybe it parks itself or builds lower heights in the 50/50 zone...

Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. ETA: wanted to clarify cutoff and storm track disco. Any big storm can punch a hole in just about any block depending on details. Any big storm can draw in enough Atlantic air to cause precipitation problems. But more typical stuff can get bullied pretty easily. If active flow undercuts the potential dome of upper level HP in Canada like guidance is suggesting.... we can snow a lot of different ways and not rely on needles and threads and stuff. Big storms have always and will always be nailbiters. We aren't new England no matter how big the block is unless 2010 walks in the door again lol.

Classic TN valley overrunner setup lol. Textbook

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco

This. Just this. It's Dec and it hasn't been cold anywhere. Snow cover to our north and west is abysmal. Keep neg and neutral tilt talk north of 40. Prob 42 lol

I'm heading back to MD on Wed for a couple weeks. Maybe longer if real winter sets in. Been working non stop since Labor day down here. It's going to be quite the adjustment going back to the rat race this time. I've been in MD just 5 days in 3 months lol. I love it down in VA so much now, Rockville will never feel good to me anymore.... unless there is a foot of snow or ice to enjoy. As far as I can tell, it's probably on for a few weeks or more if we can keep flow/shortwaves sliding south of our area for more than a 1 off event. Train tracks comes to mind when I look at extended ens. We'll see how it goes when better stuff gets closer in time.

I always bring this up.... our area averages about 10" of precip during met winter. Climo snow is about a 5th of that. We get a lot of rain every winter in every month. Period. It's that simple and it shouldn't be such a sticking point every year. Our winter wx comes in runs so winter experience can be compressed into 2 week or whatever memories of deep winter and all the rain is forgotten in the rear view. But not in real time. Lol

Pretty interested in the extended for the first time since Thanksgiving. Imo only- it's a decent storm look but not a big one. A big wrapped up storm would prob end up too warm or carry elevated risk of being warm. Something moving more laterally to our south should have no problem having some ok air to work with. Don't think we can survive big SE flow in advance of anything yet until North America and the Atlantic cool down some more. Modest storm with northerly flow start to finish could produce something we haven't seen in a long time lol.... you know... one of those 4-8" snows that don't leave too many people out lol. Wut?!? Just throwin down some random thoughts. Nothing serious or well researched

Thing is, banter in disco thread is totally fine... at certain times that are easy to identify. But that's not how it's been working. When there's a lull, yuk it up. It's fun. When it's crowded with lurkers and disco posters, just shut the heck up man. Critical thinking is a lost art or... people purposefully choose "poor timing" for maximum (emotional) effect. Imho- that's bad faith, period. Not "oopsie sorry". Just bad behavior with a broken moral compass. That drove me out of here specifically. Started getting rises out of me. My post history shows my transition in real time. One day i scanned my post history and was very disappointed in the way my behavior was changing so I had to call it quits being a regular.

Been a busy fall for me. Been running heavy equipment with a buddy doing grading, clearing, private road installs etc. If anyone is interested in before and afters, my buddy has a good Facebook biz page (Fisher Construction and Excavation in Amherst VA). I worked every job since Labor Day. I love this more than anything I've done. Offices may as well be on Mars cuz I'm NEVER doing that again. I'll go bankrupt first because money is never more important than sanity hahahaha I have tons of fall pics but they are a jumbled mess. Lol. Put a couple collages together. Smith Mtn gets hit by sunrise b4 my property. Lights it up the entire mountain while I'm in total shade. Happens every day and steals my heart every time. I mill a lot of wood in my spare time and it's a blast. I'm getting a bandsaw mill in 2 weeks. 30" log diameter and 18' track but I'm always going run a chainsaw mill. Drag into the woods and start making lumber. Hard to describe the experience and what it means to me. Few can relate so I generally quietly mill and don't talk about it. Second collage is a white oak I dropped and milled 2 weeks ago. Just about ready for edging and planing. Using the oak for shed floor and doors.

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore.

238 miles to Rockville. Got a full tank of diesel, half pack of blunts, and wearing visine at night. See ya in 3 hours

It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing.

DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/25 BWI: 10/26 RIC: 10/31 BWI Oct -1.1

Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me

Well... I was doing a really slow uturn in a driveway down the road and there was a nice gate that was open. No problem except I bumped the steel gate by the lower hinge on the post and it ripped out like tinfoil. Lol. I mean I barely felt it. Hahaha Eta: it was no hit and run either. Folks were standing there complimenting my tractor. Yea... it wasn't too fun