Bob Chill

I pretty much just follow CAPE here lately. Every time I read his AM posts I don't need to do much else. Listen to him. It's not suddenly getting easy cold and snowing. That does happen and will happen again. Not right now. It's a carving process. The only reason the next couple waves have any chance is the primo climo calender. The setups are heavily flawed in the temp dept as it stands right now. There is potential for something but man, after what I've seen this winter, accumulating snow for 90% of the forum seems incredibly unlikely. Tracking the promise of accum snow has a negative roi for me. Later next week and beyond is much more interesting but only if a reinforcing cold pattern sets up. Like a string of 10 days where CAA keeps pushing return flow out of the way quickly. Overhead and west tracks do snow here but not when each cold period is a single moderating airmass lol Eta: I posted a few days ago about a really good d10 overrunning setup. My enthusiasm was avg at best because of winter's persistence... ridging and waa avection in front of every shortwave...

For now, things look like they want to shift into a pattern that has fewer problems than we've seen. Good time of year and the east in general is waaay behind. Little out of the basement rally would feel like a blizzard

I've been active a few times but the leads were long and nothing has come close so mostly quiet this year. Seeing confluent flow not only building in strength on ens but also staying put or speeding up in time is the best thing we've seen this year by far inside of d10. When the WAR and SE ridge have steered every single storm to our NW unabated, it gets really simple what to track and root for.... Confluence hammer!

VERY nice 48hr ens height trends. I don't give a single turd if d10 is a swva special (I'll send pics) because we aren't snowing until we are compressing and flattening to our east and north. Anyone who disagrees must really like the last 6 weeks

You realize this post is funny af right? .... wait a minute... I feel a treble hook in my lip... brb

He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

Imo only, best look this year for snow d10 on gefs. I've been watching like everyone but kept seeing the same stoopid tendency to pop a ridge in front of every stoopid shortwave... trend has shifted more confluent on basically all guidance. Big storm hunters won't like this setup too much because upside is limited. Personally, sitting at zero makes any upside at all pretty enticing.... Nice mean jet panel VERY nice mean 850 wind panel... we have not had this type of flow leading into any event... Any kind of mid level flow with a north vector can overcome temp flaws. This year it seems like an elusive requirement Connect the mid and upper flow in your brain with these panels and you have every ingredient on the table for a 3-6" TN valley overrunner with WNW flow in the mids... heh... wut tf does that even mean? Lol

If we are brutally honest... there has never really been a chance this year. Hostile everywhere around us. I don't think we've "wasted" anything because it was waste to begin with. Lol I like the implications for the end of the month and beyond but until that cold actually settles in, there isn't much worth slicing and dicing. I think it's safe to say this year, we aren't getting snow until cold makes its presence well known

I loved that movie. The family table scenes are second to none. Lol.

Too early for that. Next 10 days look absolutely abysmal at first but moderates towards just run of the mill God awful. Trend is our friend. Maybe we can move firmly into the not terrible enough to not snow arena before it's still light after 7pm

I don't look too far ahead. We all killed ourselves until we died from it just before Feb 14th 2015 lol. I'm not sold on a Feb blowtorch. The west's epic ninano will level out. If the pna goes up for most of Feb it would make sense. Good month for that.

We always lag so our perspective is tempered but the NE and upper MW are getting their weenies beat into the dirt (wet dirt). I do believe there'll be a snap back of sorts for them. I'm nearly certain. Nothing epic, just some sort of climo catchup. If that happens, we'll prob get involved too. Having no snow on the ground to our west and north is another checkmark in the crappy column. Fixing that would help by default

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

I'm a #s guy and always appreciate your logical/calculated posts on the winter temp topic. For anyone who's tracked winter wx around here since 1970, it's pretty fookin obvious it's not the same. Reasons don't affect us as much as warm hard truth does lol. Highly variable snowfall aside, ponds/lakes don't freeze much anymore. Nothing like the 70s and 80s. Illegal ice hockey is a very dangerous game now. I check my old spots all the time. Year after year, it's not same. I think we can all just acknowledge that it's not the same for whatever reason and move on. The tradeoff of less frequent snowfall and more frequent whoppers will just have to do for now because all we get is what we get and not a flake more You're a super smart person with data. I appreciate it as many others do. However, every post you make that threatens belief systems will be met with venom. It's a human reflex. Nobody's mind can be changed but the debates change the vibe of the board quite drastically. If minds can't be changed maybe we should concentrate on the vibe of the board instead?

I'm about sick of the threads devolving into polarized food fighting over climate change. People don't want to debate to solve problems, they just want to fight to protect beliefs. Utter waste of time and energy. Kinda like tracking snow this winter.

We're the same now. Beat into submission or had some sense knocked into us. One or the other lol. I also agree with your thoughts. Epic turnaround is possible but imho, winter has spoken and it will make few happy in the east no matter what. I don't agree that this is the "new normal". The mid Atlantic has had terrible stretches going back to the early 70s when my memory tape ends. Early 70s totally sucked until 76-77 and that was just frigid. Feb 79 turned me into a weenie. Then the early 80s came... I have plenty of memories of absent winter... It may not snow as often but the string of big storms since 2000 is absolutely not what the 80s or 90s looked like. Or even the 70s. It's not like things fells off a cliff. Lol. It's pretty much the same types of winters we've been having. Mostly warm and disappointing with some zingers.

In a general sense, all of north America has no cold to speak of over the next couple weeks and Canada is well well well above normal. All of that isn't changing dramatically. It's a big problem that will remain. I don't have a clue what will happen in a week but whatever does will have pull a bunch of levers and switches to make it snow. We don't do complicated well and we've been shown regularly how we don't do marginal well and that stat trend is going downhill... Imo, Terp was simply pointing that piece out and not saying op runs have anything nailed specifically

My phone has a cracked lens so there's always some sort of washout stuff happening. Pics are actually terrible. It's all about location with my photo posts lol

Hey peeps, up to my eyeballs in mud, dirt, and rocks building a driveway by hand in VA. I'll post pics of deep mud and large rock accumulations later. Caught a sick sunset today tho I don't have much to add. All bases covered. It might snow. Setup looks good and semi classic. There are some problems that won't be figured out for a while. Hopefully one of you figures out the Hoco-Moco death band timing by the time get back Sunday

This is an easy one... if it weren't for the -4 AO already, strat babble would be the talk of the town. Then when that fails, the MJO will be the new OG. However, in between all those emotional keystrokes, a couple of mid range jacked up and untracked events drop some snow anyway. But since it was 10'-12' short of expectations, it went unnoticed while hostile stats and climate posts keep the "hot tag" smokin' in the disco thread

I spent plenty of time there like everyone else. Transcending away from that is probably one of life's most important challenges. It's optional and many never get there. It happened to me by accident but it would have happened no matter what i think. I've always felt a little detached from all the fake reality humans like to (almost exclusively) focus on. But it takes a long time to break the conditioning. The material world is very efficient at holding people back from inner peace too. Once I let that go, I never looked back

This can be a real crappy time of year when life's gravity digs in and holds your spirit down. Standing up to it is all you can do and seeing your post made me feel good about that part. I've always found peace during high stakes periods by simply being present in the moment. I constantly ask myself "what do I see? what do I hear?" instead of "OMyEffinG I cant stop thinking about this crap! GAH!" Just watching something like a squirrel eating breakfast or pleasant sunrise reminds me how much more there is out there than human emotional drama. It's impossible to avoid and not participate in at times but it's irrelevant to what is really going on "out there".

Me too. Itching to get back to work on my va property. Heading down Thurs for 10 days. Dry sunny warm days are my jam for now. Maybe it'll snow in Jan