Bob Chill

@WxWatcher007love what u do buddy. Keep it comin

Too add to my last post, I typically check cpc upper air analogs 1-2 times a week just for reference. For the last few weeks, the analogs have been heavyweight 1950s&60s. Going off memory only, that's not common. Plenty of the analogs are the years we like from those decades but there were some real turds in the 50s. Lol. Don't need a decadal redux there...

@WxUSAF killer post.. The abrupt flip to sustained crisp continental air early/mid Oct caught my attention. I spent most of Oct in VA and it got below freezing 3 nights in a row mid month and scattered randos after. Every time I looked at d15 epa/gefs ens, I kept thinking "if this is an early peek into early winter jet highways, we're going to like this winter. Now as we cruised thru Nov with little variance, it's time to let it go and see what comes back. This has been a very long cycle by fall standards. So persistent it does call up my intuition in a good way. Hostile lack of blocking seems unlikely this year. My gut says winter wx chances will be served by both the npac ridge at times with fast flow and dirty blocked flow stsrting to show in the mix after mid Dec. Just a gut hunch. We'll see. Dec has a habit of rewriting everything so hopefully we don't watch the a Hindenburg redux To clarify "like" for everyone, I only mean winter will have the feel more often than not. Snow in the MA is too volatile to predict. We can be an icebox and suck door to door and warm 10 out of 12 weeks and hit climo snow anyway. Not a set of stats I like to guess with anymore. My guess is we'll have enough chances to get soundly on the board. Whether people feel good or not at the end is very subjective lol

My weenie brain is so fookin afflicted... I have photographic memory of OTHER weenies' tragedies. Some call it empathy, others call it sadistic pleasure. I just call it F'd up and move on with my day

I missed the damn storm and it really ticked me off lol. Freshman in college elsewhere. I think u can relate my friend

I've been quietly interested in this period for over a week. We're undecided between rockville or smith mtn for the holiday. I was rooting for warm but kept telling the fam it looks like Dec haha. It does kinda have the break out the parkas and cameras feel... shovels? Sun angle.... Having another property with similar climo totals but different favored setups will increase my odds of fun. I plan on being in VA for every storm unless it's better here Nov is a silly month here for snow. It never happens and when it does it usually sucks. Except for 87. Still waiting for a redux. Only been 35 years

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

Attachment problems... story of my life... didn't quite finish last week but very close

In many ways the wife and I feel "guided" somehow. Sounds crazy but we're making a ton of long term decisions on the fly and as long as our intuition isn't yelling, we just go with the flow. I love building stuff there are a ton of trees on the ground in various groupings. We had forest crew clear a 500' access drive and half acre clearing for the RV in July. All the good trees were saved for milling. The drive path was majority pine so milling with a chainsaw is easy enough. Once I get into hardwoods I'll invest in a bandsaw type mill. I'm real proud of this project. I did the collage for my bro-in-law. Does a nice job capturing the grunt work. Only tools were 2 chainsaws, mill guide, hammer, level, draw blade (bark skinner) and tape. All cuts were basically freehand. Next up is a big 20x15 shed!

Think of it like a counter trade in the stock mkt. Against the grain for a reason. Low probability to go against climo guardrails. The most powerful wx supercomputers in the world still struggle bad beyond day 5 so its hard to trust any numerical guidance beyond that. Climo is the best predictive tool in the long range hands down imho

In a feast or famine climo location, any guesses near climo are statistically weak lol. Go small to rack up wins or go big to rack up fame.... eventually I still look at long range stuff but only at a 10k' view nowadays. From what I've seen since mid Oct, my intuition is strongly telling me winter will be winter this year in the east. Especially if the GoA ridge is predominant and is centered further east than usual. We can be cold and snow without blocking in that regime. I have no strong thoughts at all other than my gut

Thanks man! This was abrupt. Plan was in place for years but 2022? Didn't see that coming. Because we're doing it so early, the math is different. This is no early retirement. Kinda the opposite lol. Appreciate it. We're taking the road less traveled. Blood, sweat, and tears instead of chasing money and big houses. Off grid as well. Not hooking up to any utilities. Prop taxes are $300/yr as is and maybe 700 tops when we build. I'm 100% done chasing stuff and money. All it ever did was stress me out and make me anxious. I'm busting my ass 15 days a month running heavy equipment and developing the land. Never felt better in my life. Especially in my head. This is what I'm supposed to do. No idea how I know. I just know. Same with the wife. Feels bizarre at times but we're really happy.

It's the Pitts County lol. Pittsylvania to be exact. Sandy Level is next to Pittsville. Thank god the property wasn't next door haha. Highest elevation is 840' and lowest is 640'. Ridge down the middle is around 760. Good upslope enhancement spot for east flow events. Elevation runs from 650-2000 (top of smith in a short stretch from east to west in the area. Already works with east flow rain every time. 33 and rain will REALLY pile up. I'm screwed with clippers though. House build is a minimum 12 months out. Much has to happen b4 then. Milled hardwood timbers need 6 months of curing/drying. I'm practicing milling right now and building sheds/cabins/outhouse etc. Timbers are the only house framing members allowed without being "graded". So apparently it's against code to self-mill HARDWOOD dimensional lumber even though it's magnitudes stronger than pine. Lol. I can get my own dimensional lumber graded but for higher cost than buying pre-milled. What a scam. It's confusing for sure with Google maps. No idea why. We're in the sticks. No 2 ways about that. Literally the edge of society due to topography. Smith Mtn and the 2 lakes box thru traffic completely out of our area. Land is 2 miles down a private dead end road as well so no tourists ever (or anyone really lol). Property came with deeded access to leesville lake so thats super cool. Half mile down the road is a common area and ramp but there's only a total of 5 seasonal land users that use it and rarely at that. These pics will give u a good point of reference. First 2 are in mid July like 2 days after closing. I dragged a big chainsaw a quarter mile into thick woods and sawed a view in 95 degree heat. It was my inspiration for the big job at hand. Kicked my ass and then some... Last pic is right when the colors on Smith started. The dam and gap is just to the right. We'll have a huge view by spring. Can't wait.

Sandy level is weird with postal codes. We're in 24161. Rocky Mt, Gretna, Alta Vista for big box runs.

Hey Wx Fam, been a busy boy since last post @Jiwill be happy to know I won't be leaving the MA sub as the wife and I bought 25 acres on the east side of Smith Mtn in Sandy Level, VA back in July. Tract of untouched forest. Last logging run was back in the 1970s. Got the RV setup with generator/solar/outhouse/fresh water. Lots of work ahead building the house. I'm milling all the beams myself. Working on getting out of Rockville plan now. That's a big job too. I have no thoughts on winter except I would prefer this one to be warm so that means break out the shovels and parkas. I'm not trying to avoid amwx. I just rarely spend time on the internet nowadays except for DIY videos lol

That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm just saying

Yea, we know. We know. If the sun was out it would about to be obscured by rain too.

Can confirm. I'm on my 3rd or 4th blizzard. Looking for an even 6 pack at this point

Already got more snow than I was expecting. Man this is annoying

It's a confusing system in some ways. It's layered like a sandwich longitudinally with the vertical approach. We usually fail hard with these. It's very rare to get strong synoptic support like this after fropa. The upper level support appears to catch up on the mesos and keeps the shield fairly healthy for a number of hours. Does that happen tho? NW flow and departing slp without a closed ull low is tuff to trust. Well see

You can see the tight vorticity round the base in SW VA. The current shield will move out then unstable upper levels take over. Usually pretty unpredictable but unless steady/heavy I don't see much more than an inch at best after the synoptic shield moves out. SnowTV is always fun tho.

Fake? Evertime a gust rips I start flippin switches. Some scary shizzle uppin my hizzle

You're doing it wrong man! You CLOSE your eyes and make shit up. You new here?

Hmmm... lemme think here a minute.... yeah, OK. Here's what we're gonna do. Go ahead an book a second blizzard for now but leave space in the ledger for a 3rd or 4th. Still early.

I like seeing side by side bands developing west of us currently over HGR/Cumberland zone. That's prob the best ratio/best lift stuff. Should pull thru most of our sub in some fashion