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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Base velocity scan is a good tool for watching the pivot. Pretty clear what's going on to our west. Lull will be minimal north of 66 if any real lull at all. Snow won't be steady later this AM thru PM but a hour or 2 lull prob not happenin for most https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0G-1-24-100-usa-rad
  2. Bob Chill
    Band forming from HGR down 81 to OKV. Interested to see how they perform. WAA was a boom. If the upper level stuff is a boom too it will be quite a scene at times today.
  3. Bob Chill
    No model had me anywhere near 3" b4 7am. This is sick
  4. Bob Chill
    You can see the bands to the NW orienting in a sw-ne alignment. Those should build and pivot.
  5. Bob Chill
    Idk. I don't think north of the Potomac stops snowing. South of there prob lull but I'm skeptical of that. Upper level trailer should move lock step with the WAA part. That said, heavy/consistent rates unlikely to continue much longer. Will turn pulsy/bandy in the next few hours
  6. Bob Chill
    2.3" minimum already. Wow man. High ratio WAA snow is not something we do well here. Special set of conditions goin on
  7. Bob Chill
    I didn't pay attention to details last few days. Did any model hint at a WAA boom before the vort pass? I thought the goods all came on the pivot.
  8. Bob Chill
    MoCo snow globe in progress
  9. Bob Chill
    1.8" here. Damn dude! Rockville gittin it! 4" should be a lock now for sure unless the ivt fails which is very unlikely at this point.
  10. Bob Chill
    Woke up to upgrades, boom model runs, and dumpage. Gotta be an inch out there already. What a time to be alive FOLKS!
  11. Bob Chill
    It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar. Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh
  12. Bob Chill
    I didn't like coke either... well, except the smell. That was ok
  13. Bob Chill
    March 2015 had 2 events in one week pop up out of nowhere lol. Small but still. It was a wild month front to back
  14. Bob Chill
    Of course. Find some uncut Peruvian cocaine. Ur good for like 2 days easy and you don't have to waste any time eating or dumb stuff like that
  15. Bob Chill
    Pretty sure we had that with the Jan 19 storm. It was a weird overperformer iirc.
  16. Bob Chill
    Atmospheric train tracks are real. Even when we started losing north it jumped right back. Defied a common outcome. Why this time? Luck? Chaos? Or was it already lined up on the heels of the last one? Had a heater feel to it. That's why I was bullish early. What an awesome week to be in MD. Heading to VA Monday for the heat wave. Lol.
  17. Bob Chill
    Well it's a lot better than NJ/PA. Enhances DC too. It's a nice run buts it's the 12k and I just cant...can't.... I mean I want to... but... I can't
  18. Bob Chill
    Nam has a really nice IVT axis. Targets MD and that's def nice ratios
  19. Bob Chill
    You're prob in a better spot than me. Northern stream stuff has a way of underperforming around the beltways. Likely orographic effect and being in a shadow. Sometimes eastern zones do better than the cities because of this. Part of this event is WAA driven so that's good. Upper level part usually favors western zones. My expectations of events like this are hedging low on modeled qpf and there isn't much to begin with. I'd consider 2-3" a win and anything more a boom. We'll see
  20. Bob Chill
    My climo is somewhere around 22". If tomorrow produces, my yard would be somewhere around 9". Sure wouldn't take much to hit mid 20s. Some good fortune and 30+ isn't crazy. No idea what Feb/Mar bring but being snowless seems the least likely outcome imho
  21. Bob Chill
    Lookin good to me. Solid 1-3 locked in with a minor chance at a surprise. Instability driven snows after the low skips the coast could pick a random winner
  22. Bob Chill
    The BM model is known for taking dumps
  23. Bob Chill
    The reliable ones all did well. Mesos did well too. Imo- euro was the most consistent inside of 72 hours and verified well. Others were more jumpy. Right now we're haggling over a tenth of an inch of qpf so subtle changes feel bigger than they really are.
  24. Bob Chill
    Correlation is down at .74 so not great matches but still a weird D11+ set. Top analogs all have snow events centered. Some are rain first then snow a few days later. Looking at the height pattern I would not have guessed those results. Maybe a poor sample or maybe a sign the pattern can ramp quick once we get thru next week
  25. Bob Chill
    Most of the precip is the NS trailer and upper level driven. And it's light event so whether we get 1-3 (likely) or 3-6 (max boom imho) will depend on how juicy the northern stream is. We'll, assuming it doesn't skip north but I doubt that happens lol. Models don't generally don't dial in with qpf until its already forming to our west. Today's runs are boring and the most probable outcome. But things could easily juice back up at short leads. I won't write off a boom until 0z tomorrow runs
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